Negative post convention bounce for McCain? You make the call!

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

I say negative.

I'm not even going to say McCain/Palin because I think that is in doubt at this point. I didn't this morning but I do now.

I guess it's impossible to say, and I think at this point McCain is likely doomed to a big loss either way, but the only way he even has any chance is to ditch her (she makes a speech saying how the stresses on her family have gone beyond what she would have anticipated), pick up Pawlenty or Romney. Throw Palin to the wolves. Make an apologetic speech to the Republicans and the nation, saying they really did vet her (sure sure) but Palin wasn't forthcoming about certain details (even though it was his responsibility to find out for the POTENTIAL PRESIDENT). Endure a week or two of horrible press and coming out of the convention down double digits.

Try to pick up the pieces. Run his shitty-ass Rev. Wright etc. attack ads and hope for the best. You never know, something crazy could happen and all that.

It's still probably a big loss but I can't see any other outcome of keeping her than a solid month of bad press and steadily declining polls and a historic loss in November.

[dkf]

1. Are they going to have a real convention?

My MSNBC schedule says its the RNC convention, but it looks like Gustav to me.

[aaaaaa5a]

2. You can thank Dobson for that...

I hear GOD is real good at raining out conventions!

[depakid]

3. I'd like to believe that- but I know the corporate media all too well

They will say and do ANYTHING to prop up the Republicans.

[EC]

4. In the toliet

:hurts: and flushed

[OmahaBlueDog]

5. I say flat to slight uptick

My guess is that they'll keep Palin, and write her an acceptence speech along the lines of Nixon's "Checkers" speech; we'll see how it plays.

McSame will rail against Obama's executive experience, tax policies, and defense cred. The faithful will love it, but McSame is not a riveting speaker, and I doubt the rest of us will be riveted.

McSame now has 2 big sales pitches that he has to "close the sale" on:

1. The selection of Sarah Palin was a good pick, in spite of her personal issues and state allegations. The jury is still out, but it's not looking great.

2. That, in spite of every indication to the contrary, a McSame administration will be different than 8 years of Bush. Strangely, people seem to be buying this line of reasoning outside of DU.


Big unknowns:

Will Palin withdraw? My guess: no

Will McSame commit to no re-election in 2012?: My guess is he won't address it. As a practical matter, he's still a 1-termer at best.

Will McSame drop any bombshells? I don't think he'll commit to abolishing the IRS, although I think many want him to do just that. I think he may propose a Federal marriage amendment, and he might propose a Right-to-life amendment which would not only eliminate abortion, but also embryonic stem cell research and assisted suicide.