Whoa! Intrade just posted a new betting market. Guess what it is...

[jefferson_dem]

That's right. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. The line has been creeping up and up for the past couple hours.



http://www.intrade.com/

[marylanddem]

1. She'll be gone by day's end.

[cali]

4. I don't think so. I think they'll wait and see if the furor dies down

and the bad news about Palin's past slows. I doubt it will and I think she'll be out by the end of next week. No way they'll anger the delegates at the RNC by yanking her this week.

[Joanne98]

2. WOW. Wasn't she worth 90 bucks the other day?

[dbmk]

30. This is her antiworth, so to speak.

So the numbers fit relatively well.
People are willing to risk a 10 or 12-1 bet on her resigning/being removed as VP candidate it seems.

And while we are one the Intrade note, Obama made me 200 bucks the other day. :)

[tekisui]

3. Waiting for Slate to put up a "Death Watch".

When these questions get rolling, the candidate doesn't last.

[Teaser]

5. I better get in early

.

[quantass]

6. k

[renie408]

7. So, how bad does it hurt them if they pull Palin? Doesn't that really call

McCain's decision making into question? How do the move on from this and put together a cohesive ticket? How does the second choice for second in command have any credibility?

It seems to me that they HAVE to stick with Palin and ride it out. The comparisons to Miers would be really BAD for them.

[SmokingJacket]

9. It might not hurt them more than her staying.

She has a very easy out: She wants to spend more time with her family. Everyone will congratulate her decision.

[mwb970]

11. So does she hurt them more by staying or going?

Seems like a wash to me, they're toast either way. I sure wouldn't want to be one of those "Republican strategists" on the cable news shows today!

[Joanne98]

12. The fundies will be furious. That's the election! We win.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

14. Don't get overconfident. DU'ers were way overconfident in 2004. . . . nt

[trumad]

16. We were also confident in 2006

and we were right.

[joshcryer]

15. Note the wording of it, "Palin withdrawal"

They will spin it as Palin withdrawing from the race. These InTrade things are really specific.

[Cosmocat]

17. These jerkoffs don't care one bit about what is right ...

Or what makes sense. The think on a bizarre level that we don't even begin to comprehend.

IMO, she sticks for two reasons:

1) McCain won't pull the plug on her cause now it will be like he was being told to do it.
2) If he pulls the plug on her, he would have to bring Dobson himself on the ticket to even BEGIN to calm down the rage from the extreme lunatic fundies.

IMO, they "get behind her" and do what they do - find 100 different ways to try to turn this around on democrats and Obama. It is who they are, and what they do.

[Forkboy]

21. That's the beauty of it all.

McCain is screwn either way. :evilgrin:

[flpoljunkie]

8. Hard to imagine hardass McCain admitting he made a mistake in not vetting Palin.

[WeDidIt]

10. That Question Was Asked On CNN This Morning

It's becoming a slow drumbeat now.

And with Keith out at MSRNC, all that's left is CNN.

[joshcryer]

13. Holy crap. She is so toast. If not, wow.

The fact that people are placing money, in our society of money on that is crazy.

[Alter Ego]

18. Foolish. This will never, ever happen and everyone who thinks it will is fooling themselves.

He can't dump her--that would be admitting a mistake, and we all know Republicans don't do that.

[MindMatter]

22. Depends on what they find in Alaska

Obviously they never did any serious research on her.

They figure they can survive the baby thing, in fact that help them with all the fundies who have a martyr complex, but I'm being redundant.

The bigger concern would be other scandals that are likely to remain alive over the next month. The fact that she lawyered up yesterday is not a good sign. The McCain camp will have to calculate what the news cycle will be on the troopergate investigation. If it is post-election, then they'll ignore that one.

What else is there that could stay in the news? The secessionist background? Hard to see that one really having long legs.

If McCain dumps here, the election is over because that is an admission that he is incompetent, so he will only do this is he is facing a tsunami.

I don't see that happening. What I do see happening is for her to survive this week and to be pretty effective out on the stump. It will be up to the Obama camp to pursue her on a policy basis, not on the basis of supposed scandals. Her policies are horrendous, and they are fair game obviously.

[mopinko]

19. i think if they pull her, they will do it today or tomorrow.

they will want to put the new one up there before the end of the convention.
unfortunately, they will spin this as- see people don't want to see a woman leaving her family to run for office. (which, even here, they don't)

[Douglas Carpenter]

20. recalling the Eagleton affair in 1972 and recognizing McCain's own stubbornness

I think it will drag on for awhile. It might be that like Eagleton the pressure will build up and build up for a few weeks and then she will have to go. But I would not count on it.

In 1972, the Democratic Party elders almost to a person (except from Missouri) were pressuring McGovern to ask Eagleton to step aside. In this case, the entire religious right which are the foot soldiers for the GOP will be absolutely enraged if Palin is forced off the ticket.

The religious right would certainly demand that one of their own, a fellow right-wing Protestant who is deeply embedded in the religious right, take her place. None of the likely names suggested so far would fit that bill. If Palin is forced off the ticket without being replaced by another rightwing fundamentalist Protestant, that would be devastating for the whole party.

Clearly McCain recognized when he chose Palin that normally speaking an out and out rightwing fundamentalist might not fly with most Americans even if it was popular with the extreme far right of the GOP. He must have thought that Palin could would be an exception because she is a woman who he perceived as having an independent and populist image. Since she was never actually vetted in any serious way, he completely miscalculated.

[WeDidIt]

23. It's now up to 18!

It's jumping up like a skyrocket!

[Old Codger]

24. A lot depends

On who would be her replacement, from the looks of it in reality she was a last ditch choice , Rove said "no Lieberman" and every other possible choice said NO WAY... They weren't going to ride a losing horse....

[mnhtnbb]

25. Since McCain is known to be a gambling man, I wonder whether he'll place

a bet himself!

[jakem]

27. it wouldnt even be insider trading!

i think he has no idea what his campaign will do!

:rofl:

[mnhtnbb]

28. Ha!

:rofl:

[JBoy]

29. *snort*

[BlooInBloo]

26. I believe I picked Wednesday for her to be gone.

[grantcart]

31. missed your thread k and r