Gallup has some bad news for Bush

[59millionmorons]

No incumbent who served his full term in Gallup poll history has ever won re-election when he was not leading by atleast 9 points by September since Roosevelt in 1946 when he only lead by two. Thats 6 out of 7 full term incumbents who had a 9 point lead or more by this time who have won. The three who didnt have lost. Bush is now only tied. Remember back then they did not use likely voters only registered.

Caviat-Truman was down in 1948, but he took over after the death of Roosevelt. Gallup called that race for Dewey(Dewey lead in Sept was by 9). Well we know what happened there.

Caviat-Ford also was not a full term president.

INCUMBENT WINNERS-
1940-Roosevelt lead by 9.(Roosevelt won)
1944-Roosevelt lead by 2.)Roosevelt won)
1956-Eisenhower lead by 11. (Eisenhower won)
1964-Johnson lead by 30.(Johnson won)
1972-Nixon lead by 28 points.(Nixon won)
1984-Reagan lead by 21.(Reagan won)
1996-Clinton lead by 21.(Clinton won)

INCUMBENT LOSERS-
1980-Carter lead Reagan 44-40(Carter lost)
1976-Carter lead Ford 47-45 (Ford lost)(not a full term incumbent)
1992-Clinton lead Bush by 9 (bush lost)
2004-Bush and Kerry tied 47-48 (?????)

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1255
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1249
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1246
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1237
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1234

[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Latest Zogby poll is extremely reliable and positive

Zogby Poll is solid Kerry, low margin of error, high confidence

99 percent confidence (not 95 like most), 1 percent margin of error (not usual 3 or 4 percent).

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=686912#686922

Expect a huge Bush bounce: 10 to 16 points (wink)

[fujiyama]

3. That poll

had 20,000 respondents. That's a huge sample.

It's the RNC but I'm still kinda happy. These protests are great.

[VirginiaDem]

6. online poll?

Isn't it an online poll? If so, then its methodology is in doubt. So the high sample number makes it extremely reliable in accurately gauging what respondents believe but there's no guarantee that the respondent population is representative of the voting population at large. People who take the time to find the site and respond to Zogby may have a pro-Zogby bias. Zogby's methods may be better than others (he came closer than most in 2000) but that doesn't matter here. He has the reputation for, rightly or wrongly, giving higher numbers to dems than other pollsters.

[Zynx]

2. 1944 poll is bunk. Their methodology was not correct back then.

Hell, not everyone had a telephone.

[59millionmorons]

4. Yes

That is what I was thinking too. But if i didnt put it there you would have all kinds of so called experts pointing it out.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. And a growing number now are not accessible to phone surveys

[GiovanniC]

7. Clinton Won in 2000?

Do you mean 1992?

[59millionmorons]

8. oooops

Good catch.