A whole bunch of new Rasmussen polls

[fujiyama]

THere's no link on the website yet but I'm assuming that these are it. The website said they'd be up at 3 ET(www.Rasmussenreports.com) Then again it's Rasmussen so I'm not sure how reliable they are. Kerry has weathered the storm for the most part. The only state where he seems to have slipped is WI. Kerry also has a 4 point lead in MN, a 2 point lead in OH, a 2 point lead in IA. Bush leads by 6 in AR (gotta get the Big Dawg in that state). Notice that the two biggest swing states (PA and MI) are still showing decent leads for Kerry.


Maryland: Kerry 54% Bush 41%

Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 45%

New Jersey: Kerry 51% Bush 43%

New York: Kerry 56% Bush 37%

North Carolina: Bush 53% Kerry 43%

Oklahoma: Bush 59% Kerry 36%

Pennsylvania: Kerry 49% Bush 45%

South Carolina: Bush 52% Kerry 43%

Texas: Bush 57% Kerry 38%

Virginia: Bush 50% Kerry 45%

Washington: Kerry 49% Bush 42%

Wisconsin: Bush 48% Kerry 45%

[Inland]

1. You other states are wimpy! Kerry RULES Illinois! Neener neener neener!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. .........

[Yupster]

3. Everything looks about right to me

except Wisconsin. I would think Kerry should be up by 3-4 there.

[CrazyAtheist]

4. Kerry can just cruise to victory

Despite three weeks of nothing but Swift Boats, Kerry still has all the cards.

[WI_DEM]

5. the gains we were making in southern states seem to be slipping

NC is now leaning towards Bush by ten. Even SC is closer.
We still have a chance in Virginia. This poll is close to what the LA Times poll showed here in Wisconsin.

[fujiyama]

9. I noticed that too

It seems the Shit Boat Liars had some effect in southern states.

NC has widened again... VA is still hovering around 3-5 points. Also while Rasmussen gives Bush a 6 pt lead in AR, he was up by only 1 or two in either a SUSA or ARG poll.

Edit: One thing to note is that no other polls have shown Bush with such a huge lead in NC, so we should definetely wait till after the convention to get a better idea of where the state is going.

[WI_DEM]

13. If we lose NC by anywhere near ten points

then the Edwards selection will have been, imo, a wash. I'm not saying we need to win NC but we need to have several southern states such as NC, Ark, Tn, Va, where the race will be closer than expected so that the Bush campaign spends time and $$ there. Hopefully after labor day things will tighten in the south again.

[Doosh]

14. we can't afford

to let Bush run away with both Arkansas or Virginia at this point, we've kept both competitive too long to let them slip away now. Time to put more of our resources there

[DarthDem]

6. Dates?

Any idea of the sampling dates? Thanks - -

[fujiyama]

15. He has the polls up on the website now

I can't find the exact dates the polls were conducted but these are the newest batch of polls from him.

[Doosh]

7. I don't like the 8 point lead in NJ

I know it's fairly comfortable, but he should be up by 10-12 here by now. With the GOP convention in NY, I'm afraid Bush might close to 4-5 here unless Bush gets sandbagged at his convention by the network pundits like Kerry did (not bloody likely)

perhaps our flirtation with NC had been pure fantasy, and we need to get Wisconsin back into the Kerry column, though it might be in the margin of error.

[fujiyama]

10. Even if it tightens a bit

that's fine. The Quinnipiac Pac polls have been consistantly showing Kerry up by 10-12. Those are probably the best in the state. Also don't get freaked out by temporary polls showing small leads in states Gore won by over 10 points. There is just no way in hell Bush has made that much ground over 4 years (most likely he's lost ground in most states).

[featherman]

11. New Jersey is fine

It actually was a battleground state not too many elections ago. These numbers vary from poll to poll but I don't see New Jersey any better for Bush in 2004 as in 2000.

[iwantmycountryback]

22. Probably something of an outlier for NJ

Most polls show Kerry with a 10+ point lead there. I think Arkansas's gonna be very close. Maybe Kerry and Edwards will go more to these Southern states in the remaining 2 months hopefully.

[featherman]

8. Would like to see some different numbers

coming out of Wisconsin one of these days. This looks like Bush's only shot at flipping a Gore state. Bush lead (in this poll) is only 3% and within the MoE but it confirms at least 2 recent polls showing a similar 1-2 Bush lead here. Micromanaging these numbers (just for fun) some good news might be that this indicates 7% undecided/other/Nader. 2% stays with Nader/other, Kerry might get 3.5 (48.5) and Bush 1.5 (49.5). Too close to call and way too close for my comfort level. Come on Wisconsin! After voting DEM four straight times, what's going on this year?

[DarthDem]

12. L.A. Times Poll

. . . on Wisconsin was garbage. Nader was at 0, undecideds at 8. They probably omitted Nader from the questioning, but if so, there's no way that Wisconsin would be showing a * lead.

[Cha]

17. Good! Because I would like my below post to

be bogus!

[Cha]

20. Aren't they happy with their Democratic Governor,

Jim Doyle?

[Cha]

16. Poor Wisconsin! Poor Russ Feingold!

bush country..ugh!

[fujiyama]

19. Maybe Russ

could stump for Kerry. Russ is pretty popular in his state and is very likely to keep his seat.

[Cha]

21. I just looked up the Governor of Wisconsin..sorry I didn't know..

and he's a Democrat! We have to win Wisconsin..Between Russ Feingold and Jim Doyle!

[Zynx]

25. I strongly resent the notion that Wisconsin is "Bush Country"

That's not true. You base that on relatively few polls.

[VirginiaDem]

18. good and bad news

the bad news is that Kerry does seem to have slipped in the south and he's lost Wisconsin and some of his comfortable leads are slightly less comfortable. The good news is that this is/was the best the Swifties could do. We've weathered the worst of the smears and are still probably winning the electoral college (although not by as much as a couple weeks ago). Give Bush a small convention bounce (it's not likely to be too big given the economy and Iraq) and we'll be about even at worst for the stretch run. They won't say it but the Repubs really wanted to have a solid lead coming out of the convention.

[Cha]

23. And we could win Wisconsin back!

A "storm weatherer"!B-)

[DemMother]

26. If you're questioning the methodology of the Zogby poll, you'll find

that many people question the methodology of this poll.

[Zynx]

24. Not many of those numbers are particularly encouraging.

However, the methodology Rasmussen uses for these polls is a little questionable.