Are you guys watching the state polls? It is EXCELLENT news.

[Hamlette]

I've been watching NH and CO as by my model, those are the most likely to put us over the top. With those two states, we don't need Ohio, FL or VA. We need those two plus IA and NM and all Kerry states. All Kerry states look good.

I've been watching the odds from Nate over at fivethirtyeight and just today there has been some big movement.

He shows:

NH is a 71% chance of win for Obama (was 67% this am)
OH is 56% chance for Obama (was "red" this am)
CO is a 64% chance for Obama (was 62% this am and 56% last Friday)
PA is 88%
MI is 72%
IA is 83%
NM is 86%
Va is 60%

By this model, we win over 303 electoral votes.

Talk about a bounce!!!!!!!

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Look at the states turn blue down the left hand side.

[LSparkle]

1. WHOOOHOOOO! Now THOSE are the polls that matter!

[jules1962]

8. gotta disagree on one thing

My state (Tn) shows only 2% for Obama. I live in the reddest part of the state (Northeast) and I have talked to many who plan to vote for Obama. The areas of Nashville (Middle Tn) and Memphis (West Tn) are a lot more democratic. These numbers have to be wrong. I know that there are a lot of idiotic repugs that live here, but come on. Two freakin' percent? Can't be correct. Jeez not everyone around here is like the redstate update guys (Murfreesboro). Thank God!

Julie:popcorn:

[NightHawk63]

9. Living in Memphis, that's great to hear.

I'm so sick of my national votes not mattering.

[mucifer]

2. repubs are about to get a bounce.

[Hamlette]

3. agreed, but as I understand it, Nate has figured some of that into his model already. n/t

[WhiteTara]

4. to the moon?

[freeradicalm]

6. That's Right Alice

To The Moon! - J. Gleason

[WhiteTara]

7. Hey Welcome to DU

Freeradicalm!
:hi:

[Danger Mouse]

5. yup, right out of the white house.

[Mark E. Smith]

10. Kick 'n Rec

One more trip up the ladder for this one.

[azmouse]

11. K&R

[Bleacher Creature]

12. Great news FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!

Just because everything is.

[bushisanidiot]

13. Edit because I misread the poll.

so these are just percentage chances that the state will go one way or the other, not the percentage of obama voters vs. mcCondo voters per state.. right?

[Motown_Johnny]

14. I have been using this (link) I know, it is Zogby but it has 3rd party candidates

and focuses on electoral votes


http://www.zogby.com/50state/

[codjh9]

15. I sure as hell hope so! but it'll REALLY matter on Nov. 4th, dammit!!!