Which Is More Winnable-Ohio Or Florida

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Poll question: Which Is More Winnable-Ohio Or Florida

I am as close to a native Floridian as you can get... I have lived in Central Florida since 1970 when I moved here with my folks as a little kid....


Despite the fact that Clinton won Florida in 1996 and Gore "won" Florida in 2000 I think the state presents a big challenge...


The governor is a Republican and the president's brother and both the Florida Senate and the Florida House are in Republican hands... The state's House delegation is overwhelmingly Republican..


It looks like Mel Martinez will will be the Republican nomination and energize the Hispanic base for *....

Gore lost Ohio by 3.6% after pulling all media three weeks before the election to focus on Florida... Maybe if he would have focused as much on Ohio as Florida he might have won it...

If we need one state I hope that state isn't Florida..

Which State Do You Think Kerry Is More Likely To Win?

[Tamyrlin79]

1. Prior to Ohio invalidating the electronic machines, I would have said Ohio

But, now, with Jeb as gov of Florida, i'd say that is the harder of the two to win, even if we did in fact win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. My Analysis Has Nothing To Do With Black Box Voting....

If the fix is in as you suggest we might as well go to the Yahoo sports board and join a fantasy football club.....

[Hippo_Tron]

Unfortunately, black box voting is not a fantasy

I'm not as pessimistic about it as those who say that the election is completely un-winnable, but I am somewhat pessimistic about what could happen if there is less than a one point margin in Florida.

[movonne]

2. Both

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. They Are Both Tough.... (nt)

[Droopy]

5. I'm from Ohio and I picked Florida

As you may know we also have Republican dominated legislature and executive. Also, Ohio went undisputedly to Bush last time while we all know what happened in Florida. I've got my fingers crossed and I'm seeing positive signs in Ohio so Kerry may win it, but I think he's more likely to carry Florida.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. All The Major Office Holders In Ohio Are Pukes...

Same Thing in FL except for our two senators....



But Graham and Nelson are exceptional Florida politicians with a good ear for Florida politics...


I'm concerned if it comes down to these two states...

[Scairp]

17. I choose Ohio too

We had a Dem governor for two terms, proving that the state can be sensible...sometimes.

[Lefty48197]

7. Either state will lock up the election for us, but we don't NEED either

That being said, I think our chances at winning either are pretty equal, perhaps Ohio being slightly easier. Either one will be an uphill battle. Good thing we don't NEED either one of them. Bush NEEDS both. He'll have to defend both now. Get ready for a whole bunch of sleazy Bush ads Ohio and Florida!

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Actually we do need one of them because of re-districting

The electoral college votes from the Gore states have shifted so that Bush has 18 more EV's than he did last time. If it had stayed the same, we would be able to spend all of our resources on Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Minnesota and picking up a small state like New Hampshire, Missouri, or West Virginia. But unfortunately, this is not the case and our best hope of picking up the EV's that we need is winning Ohio or Florida.

[yellerpup]

8. Kerry will take both

I'm feeling groundswell. Republicans are not fully committed, especially those who've lost their jobs. I've not met any Democrats who plan to vote for B*. There are more of us than there are of them, and WE ARE MOTIVATED. He won't get away with stealing an election in this country again.

[Lorien]

20. I wish I were that optimistic

I live in a fairly liberal part of Central Florida, but I've got Bush* signs on either side of me now (hillbilly Freepers on one side, rich yuppie Freeper on the other). I keep hearing "well, Kerry hasn't given me any good reasons to vote for him, so I guess I gotta vote for *". :eyes:

[molly]

9. Both

everyone is sick of *

[ItsMyParty]

10. Forget them both and put time/money elsewhere

Florida--because there is no way Jeb will let that state be counted for Kerry. Ohio because it just isn't turn out good. Pull out the dough and the appearances and concentrate on holding Wisconsin which isn't looking good and in trying to get MO though we've slipped there too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. We Need To Hold Wisconsin And Win Missouri....

I put Missouri in the same category as Ohio and Florida...


A pickem....

[michaelzef]

11. Florida

Is Jeb counting the black this time?

[Droopy]

15. Welcome to DU, michaelzef.

:toast:

[jimshoes]

13. I think Ohio mainly

because the populous northern third is the old industrial component. If the dems can rally the people to get to the polls I think most of these folks lean towards dem and could upset the less populous farmlands repub leaning folks in the south.

[Doosh]

14. Florida is slightly more winnable than Ohio

[featherman]

16. Both are pretty close to going for Kerry

but Kerry needs to improve his overall favorability numbers a bit yet. The way the country has split into two cultural camps with strongholds in different regions gives me hope. I believe Ohio and Ohioans have more in common culturally with Pennsylvania and Michigan which indicates DEM. But then again there is Indiana and Kentucky which indicates GOP. Tough call.
Florida is its own nation with many, many components. Several positive trends: Dems exceed GOP in new voter registration by quite a bit expecially I-4 corridor, Cuban pro-GOP vote has dropped 17% from 2000, Kerry's pro-veteran stance (if he survives Smearboat) could close the big pro-GOP panhandle margin. But mostly I see a very energized DEM party with long memories along with a very close scrutiny re: disenfranchisement of the African-American vote. I like our chances in Florida but it is all about turnout. I think (hope) this gives us the edge in an evenly matched state.

[BillZBubb]

18. It will be hard to win either one.

I would have said Florida, but given the Jebthro won big in the last election my cynicism about Floridians has hit new highs. How could they have reelected that BOOB after 2000?

Ohio is a tough nut because of the ultra-conservative hinterlands. They haven't been hurt enough by Bush*s economic mismanagement. They'll stay solid Repug.

We need to hope for a break in one or the other, but work hard to get the EVs we need elsewhere.

[pacalo]

21. The BFEE is too corrupt -- Jeb is already intimidating black voters.

[ngGale]

22. Both are a worry considering the BBV...

I chose Ohio and did it knowing that the mayor of Youngstown backed Bush. Yuk! Florida, with Jeb purging and harassing voters along with the BBV, I try an keep some hope alive that we can pull off one.

[rullery]

23. Bush needs both Florida and Ohio to win.

If Kerry can take one or the other of these two states, he wins. It is possible for Kerry to win without either one, but much harder. Indeed there are real possibilities for an electoral tie, 269 to 269, but only if Kerry fails to take one of these states.

Since I understand that Ohio is not going to allow BBV without a paper trail, I think it will be harder for republicans to steal that state. A Florida judge (bless him) has recently ruled against BBV without a paper trail too. The Secretary of State, appointed by Jeb to replace Katherine Harris (who is now in Congress), is appealing this decision. If she wins on appeal, we can kiss Florida goodbye!

[DeepModem Mom]

24. I'm afraid from what Bob Herbert says it may be impossible to win FL --

and factors beyond suppression of the black vote are also in play. The Bush family expects Jeb to win that state for W by whatever means necessary. Whatever means necessary.