USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results

[Nicholas_J]

USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results

Poll results are based on telephone interviews with voters in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin conducted August 23-26, 2004.

1. Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Who would you vote for?


In Iowa, Its Kerry 51% to 46 % Bush

In Likely Voters, It is Bush 50 %, Kerry 47%

but in registered voters, it is Kerry 48% Bush 47 %.

Interesting Poll.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-08-29-poll.htm

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. What is the overall trend

that is what is important with polls

[WI_DEM]

2. we sure as heck do better among registered voters than likely voters

Kerry wins all three states if its registered voters, if its likely voters he wins only Iowa outright. Wisconsin is very disappointing to me since this is now the third poll in less than a week showing Bush ahead here.

Is it that Bush's base is more fired up than our base which is why Kerry does better with registered voters but among likely voters Bush has moved ahead?

[hlthe2b]

11. I wish these polls would define "likely voters' as used in their analysis

Some require them to be 1. registered and 2. have voted in last Presidential election. 3. intend to vote this election. This seemingly refines "registered voters" but will underestimate a group of "likely voters who were not yet registered, or more important, are registered but either too young to have voted last national election or otherwise did not vote previously.

This is significant, I think, since if (as reported) we are getting signficant new registered voters among 18-25 yo, they will not be reflected in these polls of "likely voters."

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. One thing is sure. No matter who the pollster,

'likely voters' automatically excludes everyone who did not vote in 2000.

[molly]

3. Still good news even with the * ads

we must be doing something right.

[thecrow]

4. This is interesting

I heard Novak on Crossfire saying that * had a significant lead in the battleground states.
But then I consider the source and say... oh yeah.. right.
THanks for your post!

[liberal N proud]

5. bush could be down by 20 points and Novak would have the race tied!

He was on the other day and could hardly contain his excitement over the polls.
I thought he was going to piss his pants.

[Walt Starr]

6. The results point to something that has always been known

If the Democrats get out the vote, they win. If voters don't turn out in droves, the Republicans win.

It's the same story in every election. Those who are most likely to vote for the Democrats are also most likely not to vote at all.

[WI_DEM]

7. true

but what it tells me is that right now, Bush's voters are more motivated to turn out which is why he does better among likely voters than registered voters. We have to come up with an issue to change the debate and get our voters fired up and I think the consequences of four more years of Bush in regards to the Supreme Court is the issue which can do it.

[RobinA]

10. If a Voter Motivating Issue

hasn't come up so far, it isn't likely to. I'm 46, and since I've been able to vote, there has never been an election with as many motivating issues as this one.

[WI_DEM]

12. maybe so

but it seems like our voters are less motivated to turnout than the GOP and we have to find out why. And do something to turn that around. Last weeks Research 2000 poll said that 87% of the Christian right is strongly motivated to turn out on election day compared to 74% of African-Americans who are registered to vote.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. Your analysis is flawed because you are depending on the pollster

and you are basing your conclusion 'our voters are less motivated' solely on the result that Bush leads among 'likely voters'.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you.

[Nicholas_J]

18. Todays Rasmussen poll has some new trends

Bush is strting to drop, whil Kerry is going up in this polls. BUsh is still at 47 point here down one point from 48, Bur Kertry is at 46 point up from 45. Lets hope this trend continues.

Hopefully, people will remember BUsh's moderate approach in 2000, and the very rapid abandoning of his moderate compassionate conservatism, and see the current behavior for what it is.

[xrepub]

15. If the Democrats get out the vote, they win.

You hit the nail on the head there. If we spent more time getting out the vote, and less time making ego satisfying arguments here we would win.

[yellowcanine]

8. This raises questions about using the 'Likely voter" model this early.

I have always understood from past elections that the likely voter model is relatively worthless until within last two weeks before the election. There are many voters (particularly undecided or leaners) who don't decide whether or not they will vote until close to the election. The fact that Kerry leads or has bigger leads in most of the battleground states among registered voters says that he has it in his power to get enough voters to the polls to win.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. Yes. Registerd voters actually give a shit

and count for more, and Kerry always does better with that group.

[gasperc]

9. my only question is did the poll democrats??

I mean only 46% of independents and republicans plan to vote for Bush, that's pretty raw

CNN/Gallup polls suck

[alfredo]

17. I seem to remember a story that mentioned that George bush

and George Gallup knew each other, were friends, or something like that.

Anyone know anything about that?