Strategist (Rove) focuses on president's devotees

[papau]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/08/30/strategist_focuses_on_presidents_devotees/

Strategist focuses on president's devotees
By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff | August 30, 2004

NEW YORK -- <snip>Rove's willingness to openly dismiss voters in California for a slight advantage in the battleground state of Oregon is a revealing glimpse into his political calculations. And the mere fact that Rove, one of the most powerful strategists in modern history, is fielding reports on particular voters speaks volumes about the extent to which his personal reputation is riding on the unusually risky strategy he has devised for Bush's reelection effort.

Despite an expected showcasing of the ''softer side" of the Republican Party at the convention in New York this week -- an attempt to win undecided and moderate voters to the GOP cause -- the heart of the strategy is to drive up the turnout of hard-core believers.

Bush spends a striking amount of time in Republican-leaning areas of swing states, seeking to ratchet up enthusiasm. His campaign has run advertising on cable networks tailored to such Republican-friendly viewers as golfers and fishermen. To Rove, an obsessive number cruncher, it all boils down to a simple empirical fact: There are more potential Republicans out there in battleground states than undecided moderates. Get the Republicans to show up on Election Day and the race is won.

But the approach breaks from conventional wisdom, and it is, by all accounts, a gamble -- one that could cement Rove's reputation as a political legend and shift the paradigm of future elections if it succeeds, as it apparently did in the congressional midterm elections in 2002, or offer an embarrassing indictment of Rove's master plan if it fails.<snip>

''Karl does not believe there's a true 'middle,' " one Bush adviser said. ''Everyone is a 'leaner,' and the leaners are affected by the actions of the base, much like an earthquake. If the base is excited, the closer you are to the epicenter, you're going to have a pretty strong shock."

[papau]

1. BUSH BOUNCE A'BUILDING - at least per the toe sucker :-)

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/29566.htm


BUSH BOUNCE A'BUILDING

August 30, 2004 -- <snip>

* He seems to be pacifying Iraq. Combat deaths in July were a third of the April total and 50 percent lower than in May.

* The success of the U.S.-U.K.-Pakistani military operations in unearthing al Qaeda plans demonstrated his skill as a wartime leader and his success in protecting us.

* He stayed away from the Swift-boat fight and let Kerry and the vets duke it out.

So where is all this heading? If Bush uses his convention skillfully to highlight his homeland-security record and uses Sen. Zell Miller, his keynoter, to attack Kerry's Senate record, he should emerge in great shape.

After four days of Republican rhetoric, it is not fanciful to hope that Bush ends up with an 8- to 10-point margin over Kerry — 52-53 percent for Bush vs. 43-44 percent for Kerry.

After the convention? Expect the lead to shrink a bit in the early days of September, but to grow to robust proportions again when the "third convention" is held — the anniversary of 9/11.

Spurred by the emotion and patriotism that will surround this grim annual event, Bush will probably take a good size lead into the debates that begin in mid-September and run until early October.

How will Bush do in the debates? My bet is: quite well. Will Kerry be able to close in October? My bet is: yes, but not all the way. But that uncertainty is what makes politics fun, especially this year.

[Beetwasher]

2. "Simple Empirical Fact????" How About TOTAL BULLSHIT!

"...it all boils down to a simple empirical fact: There are more potential Republicans out there in battleground states than undecided moderates."

What a load of fucking bullshit! First of all, there are MORE registered Dems than Repubs. Second of all, there's an error in their calculations. MOST of the hardcore Repubs are ALREADY voting, they are talking about getting the apathetic one's to vote. That percentage is NOT known for sure, so how is it a simple empirical fact that there are MORE apathetic hardcore repubs than moderate swing voters??? This is total bullshit being reported as empirical fact.

What's going on is much more simple actually. This is Rove's cover story for STEALING the election through fraud and then claiming he's a genius for motivating his base better than ever.

[liberal N proud]

3. Well, we need to make sure there are more leaner's on the left

than on the right.
I will repeat this again and again, The more people that vote the the better the chances are for the Democratic candidates.
Moreover, we need to get everyone to think for themselves, that would throw Rove's plan out the window, he doesn't think we should be allowed to think for ourselves.