There will be a post convention Bush polling bump. Question is how high?

[mzmolly]

If were within 3-4 points over the next couple weeks, I think were doing great.

Any predictions?

[cheezus]

1. 15 points at least. Anything less shows the convention was a failure

[ClassWarrior]

7. 15?? Naw, 20! GWB* is such a DECISIVE leader.

[WI_DEM]

2. I think Bush will be leading by 5 points after his convention

but this will be short lived.

[markses]

3. Bush's Convention Bounce will be 7-8 points

Assuming that he is currently at @ 46% (with Kerry at 47% or 48%), Bush will jump to 53 - 54% in the two weeks after the convention. This will then drop down back to 48%-49% by mid-October, with Kerry also coming in at 48%-49%.

The key will be energy and turnout. There will be no sudden event that crystallizes the race, or jumps it from one to the other. We have to be knocking on doors and knocking on doors and knocking on doors.

[mzmolly]

4. The Kerry camp says anything less than 55% after convention is a disaster

for shrubby?

[markses]

8. Sure...they're playing it up, just as the GOP did

My post is meant to be a realistic assessment, rather than a priming for this or that point. I think most of those looking at the thing seriously will say that Bush should end up at 53-54% after the convention, then drop back down.

[mzmolly]

10. The campaign was speaking in historical terms.

:hi:

[markses]

14. Hmmm

"If not X, then disaster" hardly seems like a "historical" formulation in this context.

[sui generis]

5. it will be whatever they make up

when Kerry is leading by 15 points, it's a statistical "dead heat".

When dumbya is ahead in the polls by 1 point, he is exceeding all expectations and the dems are "losing ground".

[mzmolly]

15. Yes, isn't that interesting.

:hi:

[gratuitous]

6. 15 points bare minimum

Should be closer to 25 points. Anything less will be a miserable failure. That's my Nancy Grace guarantee.

[onehandle]

9. Negligible.

He got a slow crawl up in the last week or two.

That's it. Then he nosedives after the first debate.

[goodhue]

11. less than 5%

[AngryAmish]

12. There will be no bump

No one beleives those Nazi lies anymore. Did you see the streets yesterday? We have already won.

[Doctor_J]

13. any bounce at all will be a figment of Big Media's imagination

no one is going to be swayed by a paper-thin lie fest. The media will probably report a significant bounce (i. e. more than Kerry got), but it will be a lie.