Zogby Poll: Undecided Voters Favor Bush Over Kerry by 25 Points

[Z-E-R-0]

Undecided Voters Speak Out; Bush Favored Over Kerry by 25 Points (35%-10%); 67% Say they “Like Bush As A Person”; 40% Watch Fox Most for News; 77% Give the President a Negative Job Performance Rating; 87% Say they “Wish there were Other Candidates in the Race”; 26% Say their Vote for President “Will Not Count”, New Zogby/Williams Identity Poll Reveals

On the eve of the Republican National Convention, President George W. Bush is favored by twenty-five points over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (35%-10%) among undecided likely voters when Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby/Williams Identity poll.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews854.html

[Trajan]

1. Out of all the frustrating results of this last month ...

This one takes the cake ....

[qanda]

2. This is an online poll

And it sounds like the FReepers got to it.

[lancdem]

18. This is the weirdest poll I've ever seen

67 percent of undecided like Bush and only 16 percent like Kerry? And Bush gets 35 percent of the vote yet his approval rating is 23 percent? Something is not right.

[JetCityLiberal]

20. Thank you

I smelled freeper bullshit all over this 'poll'.

JetCityLiberal

[vi5]

3. I don't doubt this for a minute...this is what I've been saying...

I know many "undecideds" and independents, or so they like to proclaim themselves. Each of these people I know in this category take every example of a dem maybe possibly being rumored to maybe be doing something bad to be proof of how the democratic party and democratic ideals are corrupt. But when a republican does something bad and there is irrefutable proof that he/she did something bad then it's dismissed as "well, that's just politics" or "well all politicians are corrupt.

They aren't out and out republicans but they are conservative and will almost always end up voting republican.

[KittyWampus]

33. This Is An ONLINE POLL! So You SHOULD Doubt It.

:)

[vi5]

38. Yes, I should have specified...

the specifics of these numbers may be shady. But I don't think we can count on the conventional wisdom of the 2 to 1 break against the incumbent that everyone talks about.

[BootinUp]

4. You know, maybe Kerry should go on the O'Lielly Factor

As long as there is a deal they can't edit Kerry or cut his mike. 40% of Undecideds watch FOX? This is a problem.

[mac56]

5. 1. Keep your powder dry. This poll isn't in line with the others.

2. We need to act as though we're behind anyway.

[Indiana_Dem]

6. Well you know what?

Most of the posters on other boards who claim they are Libertarian or Constitution party say they aren't voting this time around. They don't like either candidate. So this poll is misleading. That's why 87% say they wish there were other candidates and give the president a 77% negative job performance rating. And then, the ones who say their vote "won't count" probably consists of those who are voting for a third party candidate! Boy this poll gave a misleading headline! There's a difference between favoring a candidate and voting for him!

[A-Schwarzenegger]

35 and 10 adds up to 47,

that leaves almost 52 % of undecided voters that haven't
decided what way they were leaning if they were going to
lean.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. So the undecideds haven't yet decided.

Yes, it's now perfectly clear :crazy:

[A-Schwarzenegger]

36. They have decided to be undecided.

You have to trick them into saying what way they lean,
such as:

POLL: Which one are you most undecided about?
UNDECIDED (blinking): Huh?

(Count the blinks: odd is Demo, even Repube. Plus or minus
3 if they go "What?" instead of "Huh?)

If you are undecided you don't want to give up being
undecided until the last minute, because
until then everybody loves you and rubs against you
and purs.

[GiovanniC]

15. Huh?

35 + 10 = 47?

I thought it was 45? Am I missing something?

[A-Schwarzenegger]

40. Yes, your missing two.

Always leave a nice comfy lee way when doing poll math.

[fob]

19. Hooray, A-Schwarzenegger's back! I'm sorry if I've missed any of your

posts and you were never "gone", but welcome back anyway! And I don't mean to be forward Governor, but 35 plus 10 equals 45 which leaves 55%.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

26. No, no, no, no, no, no, nein.

When I add or substract, it is always plus or minus
3 margin of error. It's much quicker that way.

[Placebo]

7. GAH This Boggles the Mind!

The worse off the economy and things are in Iraq, the more bush f*cks up, the more bushisms are born, the BETTER HE DOES?

It's ass backwards.

[Soopercali]

8. Don't panic yet...

They're saying LIKELY voters - as opposed to registered voters. You don't suppose all those newly registered voters rushed out to defend the status quo, do you? We're signing them up in record numbers, and in most states, the new Democrats outnumber the Republicans.

Plus, there's no way to count all those Republicans who won't vote for President. I suspect we'll have a lot.

By the way, I was part of this poll and it wasn't available to the public. It was an email invitation with a code number.

[Cush]

Thats kind of misleading

38% are still undecided

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

9. Says right at the bottom:

Online poll.

You know it was freeped.

On edit: Oh, to have some time with their server logs...

[WI_DEM]

10. ZERO in your short time here you've been full of good news

but the obvious is that this is an on-line poll and that as a rule undecideds do break more than 2-1 for the challenger. Also it is hard to believe that folks who give Bush a 77-23 negative job rating will vote for him in large numbers in November.

[West Coast Democrat]

11. So why are so many supposed Bush* supporters still undecided?

It would only be good news for Bush if these people actually said they had decided to vote for him. I'll bet all of these "undecideds" voted for Bush is 2000, and now aren't so sure.

[TheFarseer]

12. this is what I was trying to say yesterday

and everyone told me I was crazy. I'm afraid this is exactly right. The only undecided people are people that are mad at bush but tend republican. All he needs to do is not screw anything big up and maybe throw them a conservative bone to sew up their vote.

[Indiana_Dem]

22. Nope.

From what I've seen on bipartisan discussion boards, they DO NOT like either party, though they may tend to favor the Republican party. They are very upset with both parties and most all I've had discussions with CLAIM they aren't voting or they're voting third party. They sound very much like Republicans but then they also throw jabs in at the Repub party, too, alot of the time. On this religious board I go to, I don't know of one who is going to vote this year and they think Bush is part of the anti-Christ group! Libertarians are voting for their candidate and many of the far-right are voting Constitution party or not voting.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

13. This ONLINE POLL was FReeped!

[GiovanniC]

16. 77% Give the President a Negative Job Performance Rating

They hate both candidates. I'd guess that more than a few of these people won't even bother voting at all.

[WI_DEM]

24. true

but they also like Bush personally and don't like Kerry as a person. While I don't think this is fatal, necessarily, Kerry does have to do something to improve his "likability" factor.

[lancdem]

31. I just noticed something

If you read the article and look at the numbers, the undecideds are less than 3 percent in this poll of more than 19,000! Heck, it's more like 2.5 percent. They probably are mostly disenchanted Repukes. Kerry having such a low favorability rating gives that away.

[gasperc]

17. what about the other 55%, are they still undecided?

sounds like yet another fucked up poll

[mimitabby]

21. they like him but they know they've been suckered so they

are undecided... they don't like Kerry, but they are starting to see the light.... freedom... Kerry

[AP]

23. I'd LOVE to see the methodology on this poll.

53% of undecided are undecided, while 35% have picked Bush?

This is a dramatic shift in the tendency of undecideds in all elections to break left over the last 10 years.

You know, in CAN, there's a law which requires the news to realease ALL the details when publishiing a political poll: who paid for it, the methodology, EVERYTHING.

[KittyWampus]

35. It's An ONLINE POLL> Methodology Is FREEPING!

:)

[Lex]

25. This poll is WORTHLESS because it is an ONLINE poll.

.
Historically speaking, undecideds truly break for the CHALLENGER from about 65 to 85 percent.*

Why the hell would anyone be "undecided" AND break for the incumbent when they've had 4 years to assess his abilities.

Undecideds break for the challenger--a real (and not online) poll would show that.


*DU poster TruthIsAll has articles to link to the veracity of this statement.

[Christof]

27. I don't trust ANY polls.

I know for a fact that over half of the people in this country won't be voting for Bush in November.

I've never run into a Bush supporter yet here in MN.

[kwolf68]

28. Why undecided on Bush

Logically, this poll makes no sense.

If Bush is who these supposed undecideds support then why do they still consider themselves undecided? Bush has been in office for nearly 4 years now. What are they waiting for? His message is out, his governance isn’t a secret (well, it is, but that’s not the point).

If they are leaning Bush but still “aren’t sure” then what are they waiting for? Leading by 25 points? Yea, right…Sure. That’s a number I can believe.

[progressivebydesign]

29. Not scientific..

these are the ones where you signed up at one point, and they send you an email asking you to participate. You can put down anything on these things... Most independents are actually cynical republicans, and often paranoids. This poll is pretty worthless.. because it can be freeped and has no control.

[ItsMyParty]

30. Would someone explain something----it gets confusing here

I've heard nothing but rapture over the holy Zogby as THE POLL--you know, when a Gallup or someone comes along and doesn't have good news, everyone says 'foregetaboutit" and only, only trust Zogby because they were the only ones right in 2000. Now this comes along and everyone says "terrible, false, freeped" because it was an "on-line" poll. Do they run two, distinct and separate polls: i.e., one that is an internet, do-it-yourself poll; and a genuine, call the people, regular poll?? Do I LOVE Zogby, or HATE, Zogy....please chose for me..

[lancdem]

39. I don't think the methodology is wrong

See my post 31 above. The undecideds in the poll are a tiny sample of the overal sample percentage-wise, and I suspect the vast majority are conservative-leaning, because of the really low favorable rating for Kerry and the fact 40 percent watch Fox News. That second number is much higher than the national average.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

32. Nice try, but ONLINE polls mean nothing, absolutely nothing.

[whalerider55]

34. outlier

or perhaps out,liar...

these poll results do not hang together coherently as a whole, nor do they reflect as a body the results of other polls.

as i've said earlier, there's an old yiddish saying... a goat has a beard, but that doesn't make it a rabbi.

whalerider55

[jefferson_dem]

37. Can someone explain to me how a voter can be "undecided"

yet "favor" one of the candidates at the same time? The article is unclear about what makes them undecided. Really, i don't necessariliy see it as a positive for chimpy if such a large percentage claim to favor him but are STILL undedided. Take a look at those crazy bad-for-chimp numbers on job performance, right-track / wrong-track, and deserving re-election.

It's not so dire, friends.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. A Couple Of Points....

1)Out of a sample of 20,000 only 501 respondents say they are undecided...

2) Zogby really pushes the leaners to declare ... That's why his poll has so few undecideds......


The sky is not falling....

[lancdem]

46. Exactly

Zogby's polls always have fewer undecideds than others, so it's no surprise the undecideds here might consist of mostly conservative types unhappy with Bush.

[elperromagico]

42. 38% undecided. What the hell are they, undecided about being undecided?!?

I thought the whole point about being undecided was that you hadn't decided. Christ... guess I'll have to consult the dictionary.

un·de·cid·ed
adj.
1. Not yet determined or settled; open: Our position on this bill is still undecided.
2. Not having reached a decision; uncommitted: undecided voters.

Well, I'll be damned. And all this time, I thought undecided meant you hadn't made up your mind yet. Oh wait... that is what it means. Ain't that a kick in the balls!

I call bullshit.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

43. Picky picky pikcy...

You people always find something wrong with a poll
you don't like. Zobgy is one of the most trusted name
in polling. Even if you gave plus or minus 10, Bush would
still be ahead among the undecideds. How fair is that? You
keep poking at the undecideds to get them to decide, and
then when they finally give up and decide, you start jumping
up and down on them and yelling they're a bunch of liers.
Zcheesch.

[markses]

44. Z-E-R-O: You must find this one encouraging (LOL)

Do you think President Bush deserves to be re-elected or do you think it’s time for someone new?

Re-Elect: 43

Someone New: 53

Undecided: 4

So, basically, nearly 60% of undecided voters want somebody new. Hmmm. That pretty much squares with historical numbers.

[dennis4868]

45. Not a scientific poll.....

it was an interactive online poll....totally meaningless.....

[Maddy McCall]

47. HAHA! Bush's most significant accomplishment: Sept. 11 (the mihop folks..

ought to love that one.) Perhaps should have worded the response a little differently...It appears Zogby is giving Bush credit for planning 9/11, as it is worded.

:silly:

[Guaranteed]

48. No response from Zero? Pity.

This poll is garbage, by the way. All this means is that the rest of those who are calling themselves undecided are either voting for Kerry by default or aren't voting because they hate Bush so much.

[Zynx]

49. 77% disapprove of his job.

[JackRKelly]

50. Polls are propaganda to convince others to follow the pack.

.

[formernaderite]

51. Over the last two weeks, I've seriously cut down on reading and posting...

....I'm in a bit of a state of shock. I went to North Carolina to see the wifes family, no good news there politically speaking...and the little cable tv we watched depressed me more. I'm going to get through this week and hope that things turn around. The worst thing I'm hearing from democrats is that although they will vote for Kerry, they "think" Bush will win. I don't get this, I look at this election as a crawling over broken glass to vote Bush out, and yet you see polls like this one. The electorate has gotten seriously complacent....and it's not because of Bush or the Republicans. The democrats refuse to run a left of center progressive with NEW ideas.

[TheFarseer]

53. I almost wonder

if people still don't understand the differences between the parties. If JK keeps saying he would have invaded too and I've never seen a health care plan all laid out, and he can't scream from the rooftops that he will raise taxes(eventhough he should and likely will) Besides, we put the war on a credit card. Bush is asking us for no sacrifices and most people don't know anyone that has died for the re-election in Iraq - why should normal people that don't go out of their way to get the facts think there is much difference between the two candidates?

[lolly]

52. The Republicans I know

Consider themselves "Independent Thinkers"

OK, admittedly I don't interact on a regular basis with large numbers of them, but I have noticed this trait in those that I have talked to.

Like Fox news, they claim that they are unbiased and that they're too darn self-reliant and independent to just "follow the party line."

They might very well self-identify as "Undecided" because they pretend to themselves that they are still open-minded and are waiting for some sort of definitive proof.

As Tom Tomorrow demonstrates in Salon this week,(http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2004/08/30/tomo/index1.html) this is pure hokum. If you ain't seen enough "proof" that Kerry is the better candidate, you are deliberately ignoring pretty much everything that has happened in the world in the last 11 1/2 years. These people don't want to admit to themselves that they're voting for AWOL for reasons that have nothing to do with independent thinking or logic.

Edited--twice--for typos. Gotta preview next time!

So, after claiming (and believing that they are) undecided, they still "lean" towards AWOL.

BTW--some are claiming this is a real poll, some are saying it's an online poll. Which is it?