Internal numbers show Wisc.,Mich., Pa. tilt to President

[ps1074]

Internal Bush-Cheney campaign polling shows that the president is beating Sen. John Kerry in three states that Al Gore carried in 2000, campaign staff members told GOP operatives this week.

The recent shift in polling data, buttressed by several recent public polls, has pleasantly surprised Bush campaign officials and calmed the nerves of antsy Republicans who had become frustrated and alarmed by the president’s lackluster numbers this summer.

...

Bush advisers told Republican officials working at the convention that the president is beating Kerry in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and even Michigan. Those are key battleground states that some political observers say Kerry must win if he is to defeat Bush. Gore won Pennsylvania by four points, Michigan by five and Wisconsin by less than one.

http://www.thehill.com/news/083104/poll.aspx

[DarthDem]

1. Ludicrous

They should keep telling themselves that with regard to PA and MI. What is this, an excuse not to campaign in either state? Heh. Internals, my ass.

Wisconsin is a mystery. I'm hoping for some positives out of there soon.

[saracat]

2. That isn't what the Dem internal polls say.

Subject: KE04 Leads New Gallup Polls; National, IA, PA, WI; OH, FL


> by Gallup for CNN & USA Today (August 23-26)
>
> NATIONAL
> Kerry-Edwards: 48%
> Bush-Cheney: 47%
>
> IOWA (7 EVs)
> Kerry-Edwards: 50%
> Bush-Cheney: 44%
>
> PENNSYLVANIA (21 EVs)
> Kerry-Edwards: 49%
> Bush-Cheney: 44%
>
> WISCONSIN (10 EVs)
> Kerry-Edwards: 49%
> Bush-Cheney: 46%
>
>
> OHIO (20 EVs)
> for the Columbus Dispatch (August 26-28)
> Kerry-Edwards: 46%
> Bush-Cheney: 46%
>
>
> FLORIDA (27 EVs)
> for the Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel & Florida Sun-Times (August
> 25-27)
> Kerry-Edwards: 46%
> Bush-Cheney: 46%
>

[Cooley Hurd]

5. ...nd the Communist Party internal polling numbers always showed...

...a Gus Hall blowout!

:D snarf!

[Tim_in_HK]

3. right

believe it when i see their 'internals.'

[ibegurpard]

4. Bullshit.

eom

[jmknapp]

6. Strategic Vision

Must be the Strategic Vision polls.

Check out http://electoral-vote.com which shows a big deterioration for Kerry based on those polls.

[Perky]

16. StatVis does polling for Repukes

That is not to say there is a definite bias but just take their polling with a grain of salt.

also the e-v site ony consider the latest poll in any state and doesnot cosider withing the MOE a tie unless it actually is a tie. thus you cajn see som wild shifts in the overall e-v numbers on that site.

Dave Liep's site uses the last three polls in a given state to award blue or red.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php

A much better approach.

[xcmt]

7. Heh.

I love how, according to electoral-vote.com, nobody's even bothered with a poll in Nebraska this election.

[Perky]

17. Or DC for that matter n/t

[LynnTheDem]

8. This will come as a shock to ya...

but republicans LIE like sidewalks. ;)

[WI_DEM]

9. this is an old trick of Rove's

In the closing days of 2000 he said their internals showed a good chance of Bush winning California and New Jersey--in hopes that Gore would spend time and effort there.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. Of course, the delegates don't come to hear

bad news. This is what they paid for. Might as well let them have their moment of bliss.

[blm]

11. Horseshit. GOP would never release their internal polls. This is disinfo

being spread to demoralize the Democrats. DON'T FALL FOR THEIR STANDARD TRICKS!

[59millionmorons]

12. Thats funny Bush is behind in the last 19 MI polls

and 16 of the last 17 polls in PA.

Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread 2000 Vote
SUSA | 8/22-8/24 548 LV 4.3 45 48 - Kerry +3 Gore +5
Zogby Interactive | 8/16-8/21 966 LV 3.2 45.3 50.5 0.7 Kerry +5.2 -
ARG | 8/17-8/19 600 LV 4.0 45 48 1 Kerry +3 -
Rasmussen | 8/1-8/26 LV 4.0 45 50 - Kerry +5 -
Strategic Vision* | 8/14-8/17 801 LV 3.0 42 46 2 Kerry +4 -
EPIC/MRA | 8/4-8/10 600 LV 4.0 42 49 3 Kerry +7 -
SUSA | 8/2-8/4 608 LV 4.0 41 52 - Kerry +11 -
Strategic Vision* | 7/30-8/2 801 LV 3.0 42 47 2 Kerry +5 -
Rasmussen | 7/1-7/31 LV 4.0 44 50 - Kerry +6 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/26-7/30 1,022 LV 3.1 44.6 52.1 1.2 Kerry +7.5 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/19-7/23 n/a 3.1 43.9 52.6 1.3 Kerry +8.7 -
Strategic Vision* | 7/13-7/17 801 LV 3.0 44 46 1 Kerry +2 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/6-7/10 n/a 3.3 44.1 50.0 1.9 Kerry +5.9 -
EPIC/MRA | 7/6-7/8 600 LV 4.0 44 47 3 Kerry +3 -
ARG | 7/6-7/8 600 LV 4.0 43 50 2 Kerry +7 -
SUSA | 6/28-6/30 594 LV 4.1 41 51 - Kerry +11 -
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread 2000 Vote
CNN/USAT/Gallup|8/23-8/26 879 LV 5.0 47 47 2 TIE Gore +5
Rasmussen | 8/1-8/26 LV 4.0 45 49 - Kerry +4 -
Issues PA | 8/13-8/21 861 LV 4.0 45 44 3 Bush +1 -
Zogby Interactive | 8/16-8/21 901 LV 3.3 44.0 52.3 1.0 Kerry +8.3 -
Strategic Vision* | 8/17-8/19 801 LV 3.0 44 48 2 Kerry +4 -
Keystone | 8/2-8/15 660 RV 3.8 42 48 3 Kerry +6 -
Quinnipiac | 8/11-8/16 1,430 RV 2.6 42 47 4 Kerry +5 -
Strategic Vision* | 8/2-8/4 801 LV 3.0 43 48 2 Kerry +5 -
SUSA | 7/31-8/2 748 LV 3.7 41 53 - Kerry +12 -
Rasmussen | 7/1-7/31 LV 4.0 45 46 - Kerry +1 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/26-7/30 932 LV 3.2 44.7 52.7 0.7 Kerry +8.0 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/19-7/23 n/a 3.3 45.3 51.8 0.9 Kerry +6.5 -
LA Times | 7/19-7/21 815 RV 4.0 38 48 5 Kerry +10 -
Strategic Vision* | 7/18-7/20 801 LV 3.0 43 47 1 Kerry +4 -
Quinnipiac | 7/6-7/11 1,577 RV 2.5 41 46 5 Kerry +5 -
Zogby Interactive | 7/6-7/10 n/a 3.6 44.9 52.2 0.9 Kerry +7.3 -
Rasmussen | 6/1-6/30 LV 4.0 43 48 - Kerry +5 -

[gollygee]

13. I don't think he's taking Michigan

I live in the conservative part of the state and it seems much more pro-Kerry than it was pro-Gore.

[59millionmorons]

14. read post 12

Your right

[Stuckinthebush]

15. Propaganda, I do believe

The GOP has no problem lying - they are seasoned at it. So, they lie that Bush has Gore states to encourage supporters and sway undecideds.