Federal Review Composite (8-31-04): Kerry 281-Bush 257

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

BUSH PRIMED FOR CONVENTION: KERRY LEADS ELECTORAL VOTE
Bush 48.8% – 222 EV | Kerry 48.5% – 316 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 208| Kerry 254| Toss 76
August 31, 2004

Bush has effectively diminished his potential post-Convention bounce by bouncing pre-Convention, jumping into a small lead in the national popular vote for the first time since July 6. As usual, the Electoral Vote analysis trails the Composite Poll as Kerry still holds a small lead with significant movement to toward Bush in many states over the last week. This is also the first time that Kerry has led the electoral vote while trailing the popular vote. That should change by next week. This week’s analysis includes 43 state polls covering 24 states in our state-by-state weighted average. Although recent polls show Florida may have moved back into the Bush column, the state remains in Kerry’s column by the thinnest of margins of 0.73%. That’s because our analysis still considers polling two weeks ago when Kerry averaged a lead of 6 points. Last week, Bush averaged a lead of 0.5 and this week in Florida Bush leads by an average of 1.3%. Because Bush’s lead is so much smaller than Kerry’s lead from two weeks ago, Kerry holds his lead. As a result of this method of weighting recent polling results, once a state changes colors, you can be sure there’s been an actual shift supported by more than one poll. Since we began tracking the race on March 8, Bush’s largest leads have been 50.1 to 47.6 on June 29 and 387 to 151 on March 16. Kerry’s largest leads have been 50.5 to 46.9 on August 10 and 321 to 217 on August 17.

[quaoar]

1. I wonder if we'll hear this much

"Bush has effectively diminished his potential post-Convention bounce by bouncing pre-Convention"

[swag]

2. Seems to be in accord with mydd.com's cattle call.

electoral-vote.com has a much more pessimistic reading this morning.

My September (actually, August-end) donation will go to

http://actforvictory.org/

which is getting matching donations from a donor through the end of today.

Giving to ACT for the first time today to help out their crucial registration and get-out-the-vote activities.

[jefferson_dem]

3. The fine print at electoral-vote.com

Several of the new numbers come from Strategic Visions, a Rep lap-dog polling firm. Here's the disclaimer at E-V.com -

"However, it is worth noting that pollsters aren't always neutral and within the law always do what the client asks for. Strategic Vision normally works only for Republicans and results like these that contradict results from other pollsters in so many states do raise some eyebrows."

[phillybri]

4. We'll see...

Once the RNC is over, people will only be focused on Iraq (crap) and the economy (crap also)...The bounce will end there...