WSJ/NBC Poll - Has Obama Erased McCain's Post-RNC Bounce/Lead? Is It Now A Deadheat Already?

[Median Democrat]

The latest polls suggest that the Republican post-convention RNC bounce has been erased, and the election is back to the deadheat it was as the parties entered into convention season. The convention season signaled a noticeable swicth by the McCain campaign from the "experience" ticket to the we are an even bigger change than the other guys ticket. I know the story linked below attempts to portray the poll as a decline by Obama, but in light of polls immediately following the RNC convention it appears that McCain's lead has already been erased.

One quick observation about the reporting of polling results. First, even when Obama has a lead, the story always appears to ask why Obama's lead isn't bigger. Second, if McCain obtains a lead, which it occassionally does, the story always discusses how Obama has lost ground with an obligatory reference to PUMAs. Third, if McCain's lead disappears, there is never a reference to McCain ever having a lead, rather the story always appears to refer back to a period when Obama had a lead, so that the story is once again about Obama underperforming.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26625154/

[Jennicut]

1. Yup. The Bounce is bounced out.

We are back to where we were before the conventions. Bring on the debates.

[DJ13]

2. Dead pig bounce?

McCain's advantage sure didnt last long.

[Sensitivity]

3. The bounce brought McCain EVEN. But new gains eat into women and Indie vote and threatens States

that Obama needs to win -- OH, MI, VA

[TlalocW]

4. We're going to be going back to Obama's floor being McCain's ceiling

But the media are going to play it up like it's always Obama who has the problem or needs to prove something.

TlalocW

[endthewar]

5. Precisely. I guarantee that NONE of the pundits will describe McCain as being in a freefall

the way they would if Obama lost ground in the national polls.

[Median Democrat]

6. I Have Never Seen A Story On Polling That Is Positive For Obama Regardless of the Poll Results

The spin is always negative. As a result, even if Obama were to open a small lead, I bet that the story in question will contain no mention that McCain ever held a post-convention lead, and the story will refer back to some period of time before the conventions even occurred to say that Obama (pre-convention) lead has shrunk.

That's just the rules of the game. The theme always has to be how Obama is not meeting expectations.

[ShadowLiberal]

7. You know that's actually a good point, remember when they said McCain had a 3-5% lead

I heard the exact same poll earlier, but didn't think of your spin on it at the time. I've even read somewhere that some professional polling company had McCain with as much as a 10% lead nationally (at least 2 days ago), something I refused to believe because of seeing nothing higher then 5% before.

If the national numbers stay within that polls range (give or take 2%) for the next day or two then McCain's bounce will have stopped already.

I've got to say, while some state polls like Ohio certainly look like a big McCain bounce in the works, I'm surprised how many others conducted postGOP convention look like it was before McCain even got a bounce (over half of them), I mean Florida going from a slight Obama lead to a tie? McCain's regularly held a decent lead there for most of the year, so why isn't he winning by say 5% (not as usual of a FL number for him all year long as you might think).

PA's recent poll is also good news, conducted 9/7/08, yet Obama is STILL ahead by 2%, can we really call PA a swing state anymore (until the debates at least) if McCain can't even get ahead here with a convention bounce? Same with Colorado, a poll was conducted the same day and gave Obama a 3% lead still, and McCain's had a lead in Colorado a lot more often this year then in PA.

The Virginia polls (two of them with McCain up only 2%) are also encouraging, I'd have expected at least a 4% lead.

[Median Democrat]

8. Exactly, Its Back To A Deadheat, Yet No Stories About McCain Losing His Lead

The stories out there uniformly attack Obama, when there should be some coverage of the fact that McCain/Palin's post-convention lead/bounce has largely been erased, and the rase is back to the deadheat it was before the conventions notwithstanding all the initial excitement about Palin.

[anonymous171]

9. The "bounce" was mostly media created.