North Carolina Poll McCain +20 (for reals??)

[quakerboy]

So, as I compulsively looked at the polls out, I noticed the Survey USA poll that came out with McCain +20

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9d3db8ba-996f-414f-b9d0-5bc16f50d34d

This seems remarkable, given that their last one was only McCain +4

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c12aadc7-2830-4be0-8e30-a647afe3277d




I looked further, as should we all. The earlier poll had a 46% Dem sample, 33% R, and 18% I. The new one has a 41% Rep sample and only 40% D, 16% I.

What does this mean?

If you weight the results using the numbers from the earlier survey, you get 52% Mc, 44% O. McCain +8. Still not what I like to see, but a far cry from the magic 20 point lead that suddenly appeared like a Palin at a convention.

[writes3000]

1. Thank you for doing this. The reality police here are awesome. nt

[quakerboy]

4. I have to admit

I wouldn't have caught it without a mention earlier. I just took it another step to see exactly what the effect of the changes were.

[Clickhere]

2. The change in party ID is understandable

It means that more people identify as Republicans now than they did before the convention. I don't see the use of using party ID numbers from an old poll. Events change things.

[MattNC]

5. but it needs to be

more in line with voter registration in the state, which the previous poll was closer to.

[writes3000]

6. No, it isn't. And even Gallup is admitting they are just guessing at this.

Welcome to DU! Enjoy your stay!

[sam kane]

7. wow, that is the Republican talking point.

so surprising to hear it from a DUer...

[quakerboy]

10. Magic 8 point shift?

Show me some specific evidence that validates that change for NC.

There were 2 conventions. Both would theoreticaly produce increases in identification. So why an 8 point shift one way only?

From another direction, lets look within the parties. McCain bettered himself with R's by 4%, and Obama bettered himself with D's by 3%.

So what makes more sense? A 4-5 point shift in McCains favor, or a 16 point swing in McCains favor?

[AndyTiedye]

12. Hard to Believe that 13% of NC Dems Switched to the Repug Party Because of Palin!

[sudopod]

16. Protip, noob

There are 42 million registered Democrats and there are 31 million registered Republicans. :p

[Zynx]

18. Party registration does not shift 14 points in two weeks.

[MattNC]

3. Thanks

Around a seven-point loss is what I figure will happen in my beloved Tar Heel state.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. That sounds about right

I expect high single digits.

The good news would be if the liberal/conservative percentages tighten. In 2004 North Carolina was 17% liberal, 40% conservative. Before it can threaten swing state status, that needs to move toward the 19-38 range. That was the first indication from Virginia.

Party ID is comparatively meaningless. I have no idea why we fixate on it. Voters may have different interpretations of Party ID, and occasional swings in which party they align with, but in federal races the voting tendencies are determined by whether a person thinks of himself as liberal, conservative or moderate. In the past few years some voters have been reluctant to identify as Republicans, but they still call themselves conservative.

[treestar]

8. NC sucks

I went to UNC-Ch, too, and I still say:

NC sucks!!!!

[MattNC]

9. lay off!

i love my home state! :)

[treestar]

19. I used to think it was only NC state that sucked

But this poll convinces me that all of it except Chapel Hill must!

[sudopod]

17. Clearly you've never been to Asheville. ^_^ nt

[Tutonic]

11. Thanks for this. They're gonna try and steal an election. Is there

one honest pollster?

[kwolf68]

13. Not winning NC

!

[quakerboy]

15. Probably not

But I would argue strongly that this magic 20 point lead is a fairy floss construction.

[ClarkUSA]

20. As I recall, SUSA did a very bad job of predicting the outcome of the NC primary

I would only pay attention if Team Obama pulls advertising from the state en masse.

Also, North Carolina has seen increases of more than 400,000 new voters, mostly thanks to Team Obama's strenuous ongoing efforts
since the early part of this year.

[secondwind]

21. Real Clear Politics has McSame up by 20 in NC

[dems_rightnow]

22. They show them up 7.4%

Not 20%. At any rate, they just collect polling data from others, including the Survey USA poll.

[quakerboy]

23. RCP shows the SUSA Poll

they are a collection of others polling, and when they add them all up, their end result is Mc +7.6. That would be after they average in this retarded +20 poll. It is interesting to note that the next poll taken after the SUSA has Mc Right back where he started, at +4.

[grantcart]

24. PPP now shows NC up by 4%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nc_mccain_48_obama_44_ppp99.php