Zogby: Dead heat between Bush and Kerry in Virginia

[WI_DEM]

Polling firm Zogby International has found the 2004 presidential race between Democrat John F. Kerry and Republican George W. Bush a "dead heat" in a recent poll confounding political analysts in a state with a 40-year history of trending Republican in national elections.

Virginia is "too close to call" with Bush ahead of Kerry by a narrow 49 to 48 percent margin and well within any margin of error.

Kerry leads in the large cities 53-44
Has a huge lead among women 59-39
singles 55-40

Bush leads among men 61-36
marrieds 53-45
voters in small cities 53-45
voters in suburban areas 52-44

Undecideds carry the key to Virginia's 13-electoral votes.

Per Zogby: "If Kerry can win 90% of the African-American vote in Virginia and hold his ground among other demographics he will win the state."

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=9164

I think we should spend alot of time stumping Virginia with Gov. Mark Warner. Perhaps $$ which has been going into West Virginia should be diverted to Virginia, which seems to be a better prospect.

[Beetwasher]

1. That's Amazing!

n/t

[Proud2BAmurkin]

2. Beautiful.

.

[JI7]

3. WOMEN RULE

[ScreamingMeemie]

15. My best friend in the whole world just gave a shirt that says,"When women

vote, Democrats win" :hi:

[prodigal_green]

4. My whole extended family lives down there

and how very nice it would be for them if the state turned blue! My mom went to two Kerry events in Norfolk and the city officials said they hadn't seen crowds like that since the first JFK went down there. Navy takes care of its own.

Also, Northern Virginia has become a tech center. A lot of smart young folks have flocked to the area and are very aware of the precariousness of their jobs under the chimp.

[Zynx]

5. Virginia should be a long term project as well as this year.

We need to pick up some new states considering that MN and WI are becoming less Democratic. Luckily many more states are becoming more Democratic than the other way around.

[DaveSZ]

9. Amazing

[coloradodem2005]

28. Colorado has a chance to go Democrat.

n/t

[Jen]

53. Finally!

Even that loser Dole carried Colorado. I haven't had my presidential vote count ever!

Luckily this year there is going to be a ammendment to split the electoral votes based on the state's popular vote.

[ellie]

6. Just took a Zogby poll

It asked me if the Swift Boat ads changed my mind at all. I said no, I am still voting for Kerry. I live in Ohio.

[MoonRiver]

42. I took the same poll.

Although the adds haven't changed my mind regarding voting for Kerry, I marked "made it MORE likely to vote for Kerry". Just a little payback to the swifty liars.

[demnan]

7. I'll be stumping for Kerry this weekend

in Woodbridge, Virginia. Usually a very Republican place but it does have some Kerry stickers and I even saw a yard sign in my mother's neighborhood.

[Il_Coniglietto]

35. Can you set up a booth outside Potomac Mills?

A lot of people go through there. I don't know if it's legal, but I was surprised at the number of Kerry bumperstickers I saw last time I went there.

[sniffa]

8. maybe we shouLd amp up the fact that

VA's big cnut is the purpLe heart band aid guy.

i'm sure VA's heavy miLitary popuLation wiLL appreciate his efforts.

[Eurobabe]

17. yeah fight fire with fire!!

[Best_man23]

10. I see VA and WV as one project

Even though they are two states, money and effort should be made in both. Plenty of union members in WV who should be encouraged to use their voices via the vote.

[pmbryant]

11. Don't know what to make of this

If we're really this close in Virginia, the rest of the election should be a blowout, I would think. Perhaps it's true, or perhaps this is an outlier.

:shrug:

--Peter

[WI_DEM]

12. the demographics have been changing over time in Virginia

Clinton nearly won it twice, even Gore didn't do too badly.

[coloradodem2005]

29. Clinton didn't win Virginia.

He won West Virginia.

[spooky3]

40. S/he didn't say he did--said "nearly won". Plus, Gore spent

very little time in VA but barely lost it.

I agree with the other posters about the demographic shifting. The only problem is that in NoVA there are a lot of Repugs moving to the outer suburbs. If only we could convince some of the Maryland suburb dwellers, who lean Dem, to move to VA...but many of them have stereotypes of VA based on what happens in Richmond, which is still dominated by RWers.

The fact that Warner, some moderate Repubs, and the business community got behind some law changes this year that liberals would favor and wingnuts hated, should be a clear signal to Kerry and friends as to the possibilities here.

KE should also go down to Tidewater and hammer home how Bush has HURT, not helped, veterans and active military and their families.

[pmbryant]

45. Gore lost VA by 8%

I wouldn't call that "barely".

http://www.sbe.state.va.us/web_docs/election/results/2000/nov/nov2000/

Bush 52.5%
Gore 44.4%

Still, these polls showing VA closer than that are very promising.

--Peter

[DHC]

32. Early Election Night Alert. If Kerry Takes VA...

...he'll win the election. But if he loses PA, he probably won't.

[newyawker99]

37. Hi DHC!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

54. That's probably right

[quinnox]

13. That is rather surprising

Virginia is a state Bush must win. If Kerry is even close in this state it is a troubling sign for Bush campaign.

[Eurobabe]

14. I think I am one of those surveyed. :)

cool!! Get BLUE Virginia...there is alot of anger here. Saw it the other night at the Kerry meetup.

[yellowcanine]

16. This is great. Wait until the vets see Pat and her purple heart bandaid.

That should pick up another couple of points for Kerry in the Norfolk area.

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

18. Bastards and those bandaids. They can kiss my donkey ass!

:kick:

[Gothmog]

19. This is very encouraging

I am surprised about these results. I hope that Bush has to pay some attention to Virgina and other Red states.

[DHC]

20. Not to Be a Wet Blanket, But Not So Fast...

...which Zogby? The hungry, scientific Zogby of 1996 or today's Zogby Interactive, which is not even considered trustworthy enough to factor into the poll averaging web sites? This AM, Rasmussen had Bush up by 5 in VA and widening a lead in the internals. I just don't trust Zogby anymore. Too wrong, too often.

[Beetwasher]

21. LOL! Yeah, Nice Try, Zogby Nailed the 2000 Election

Of course you don't trust Zogby, he's not a Bush whore...

[DHC]

24. Nice Try? Meaning What?

I'm a poll junkie, and what I said about the current rep of Zogby Interactive and Rasmussen are both true.

[Beetwasher]

26. If You're a Poll Junkie, You Should Know Better

and should see the overall trend in VA has been moving in this direction for quite some time...

[DHC]

25. BTW

I forgot about '00. Zogby used to be the best, with his old methodology. But maybe he's right. I hope he is. But if you look at his comparative numbers in other states, they're way out of kilter w/ others. If he's right, then Kerry--nationwide--is not slipping as badly as it seems right now.

[Beetwasher]

27. No, His Numbers Are Not Way Out Of Kilter

Not at all...Zogby has VA a dead heat, Rassmussen has Bush up by 5...That's no way near way out of Kilter...It shows a close race in BOTH polls...

[DHC]

31. Well, I Wasn't Talking About VA...

...but other states--where sometimes he's close and sometimes shows something like a 10-pt disagreement w/ other polls, which seem always to be in shouting range of one another. Several sites now mark him w/ an asterisk, or offer a disclaimer saying they don't average him in (I'm talking Interactive only) because of the large discrepancy. Like I said, I'm not trying to be discouraging. I just don't think 1 Zogby poll in 1 state is any reason to relax--any more than a couple bad weeks is reason to quit. BTW, I like Quinnipiac best myself.

[Beetwasher]

34. Eh?

Some sites mark him w/ an asterisk? Yeah, ok, whatever...

How about some examples of his "wacky" polls...

Interactive polls of any kind labeled as unscientific, not just Zogby...

[pmbryant]

30. Rasmussen's own track record is not exactly stellar

So dismissing Zogby's results because they aren't in perfect alignment with Rasmussen is not logical.

Anyway, given the statistical error, there is no inherent inconsistency in the two results.

--Peter

[abrock]

22. I always though Kerry would take Virginia

Virginia is too close to DC and Maryland for Kerry to easily lose it, and I've been pretty sure the polls thus far haven't shown the whole picture. I'd even go so far as to say Kerry is a few points ahead of what Zogby's says.

[newyawker99]

38. Hi abrock!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[autorank]

23. I'm in No. VA and I was part of the poll!

It's real folks. This state has a huge tech/govt worker population, 85% of No. VA residents are college graduates, and NOBODY I talk to, NOBOCY, likes Bush. I see a lot of folks. Even the tech people, internet/software/etc. hate Bush. This is a real possibility for a win and a harbinger for the rest of the country. If Kerry can make inroads among the vets in Tidewater (Norfolk, etc.), he wins the state.

[spooky3]

41. People outside VA really don't understand how highly educated NoVA is,

that it leans Dem, and is huge and growing.

My brother is a tech person who lost his career to India, after 20 years of giving up his life traveling for the company. You had better believe he is a Howard Dean and ABB Democrat, as are many of his peers.

[Invidious]

48. My parents live in Virginia Beach

They have been telling me that they are seeing a surprising number of Kerry/Edwards bumperstickers and signs all over. I think that between the pay cuts, and the "stop-loss" orders..* is losing support EVEN in Tidewater. Those military wives and families want their men home, not dead.

[autorank]

56. Carry me home ... or some such line.

I've lived here since '84, in the days when the Republican's were as liberal as the Democrats (which wasn't very but at least they were moderate). I'm sickened by what Allen and Governor Enron did (oh, no problem getting rid of the car tax, the budget is balanced - LOL). VA is highly educated in NoVA and Tidewater also; and the military is part of this group. Don't have to be smart to be a Dem but it seems to help lately. I'd love to see Bush take a real spanking here. Memo to Kerry: Please come back and send Edwards often (especially to Southside).

[tedoll78]

33. Not to be too pollyannaish..

but if Bush has to spend time defending states like Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina.. he's still in real trouble. Once the Kerry Attack Machine (i.e., the "Truth About Bush" Machine) starts-up, Bush's days will be numbered.

[Gin]

36. I'm in Hampton Roads and was part of the poll also...

g

[UnapologeticLiberal]

39. WHOA!

About six months ago, my boyfriend said that he saw Virginia and North Carolina being close, and I said no way...maybe down the line, but not in this election. I guess I was wrong. This is great news for me, as I go to school in Washington, DC and if Virginia is close, I will be able to help out in Northern Virginia on election day and feel like I am making a difference.

[kwolf68]

43. As a Virginian

This is amazing…SIMPLY amazing. The home of Falwell, the NRA, 700Club, etc…

ANYONE AND I MEAN ANYONE who is worried about our boy NEEDS TO LOOK AT THIS.

A Northeastern Liberal Democrat DOES NOT COMPETE in THIS state if the election isn’t looking good.

I think Kerry can close out this state and with the recent soldier bashing at the RNC the people in this state with a large percentage of vets will rebel. Women have seen enough of this war mongering jack off as well.

God Bless our women in this nation…they keep our sorry asses straight don’t they?

[Endangered Specie]

49. And to think your neighbors to the south, us north carolinians...

are experiencing a similiar thing, we are the home of what, Jesse Helms, NASCAR, tobacco and who knows what else.

[quaoar]

44. The Nader factor in Virginia

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=9164

Ralph Nader's bid to get on the Virginia ballot may impact the state with the potential of taking away just enough votes to give Bush a second Virginia victory in 4-years, according to some of the states Democratic Party organizers. Last week the State Board of Elections initially said Nader did not meet the petition requirements to gain access to the state's November 2nd ballot but intervention of the Bush Re-Election Chairman and Attorney General and Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore caused a turn about where the petitions are now being processed.

Nader could be a "spoiler" in Virginia for any chance for the Democrats to win the state's 13-electroal votes. But John Zogby noted that it was unclear who would be hurt more if Nader remained in the presidential race - the Republicans or Democrats.

"Half of Nader voters would not vote if he dropped out of the race," he said. "A quarter of them are people who would otherwise vote for Kerry. But interestingly, we're finding that a quarter are being taken from Bush."

Virginia is not the only state to confound analysts as North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado join Virginia in the "swing state" column. Zogby has now included the states in its battleground tracking polls until the end of the election.

[WI_DEM]

46. A quarter from Bush?

I don't see how that can be.

[arewenotdemo]

51. I can almost believe it

I'm guessing that Southern Naderites are more conservative (and rarer) than their Northern/Western counterparts.

[foo_bar]

55. Arab-American would-be Republicans for Nader

The number of Americans nationwide who identify with an Arabic-speaking ancestry grew by roughly 45% since the last Census taken in 1990. In six states, the Arab ancestry population at least doubled, including Virginia, North Carolina, Connecticut, Alabama, and New Mexico.

http://www.allied-media.com/Arab-American/Arab_demographics.htm

[Tarheelhombre]

47. When was this poll taken?

[Virginian]

50. The Richmond flooded area could use

a concerned visit from Kerry about now. I wonder if Gov. Warner will invite him?

Richmond had a terrible flood from the remnants of Hurricane Gaston yesterday. They could use a little moral support.

[arewenotdemo]

52. Driving into Richmond Monday night...

I thought the Rapture was underway, judging from all the deserted cars on I-64.

[autorank]

57. Just in case it happens again...

http://raptureready.com/rap2.html

I went around Richmond on the 95 bypass from about 3-4PM. It was completely intense. Felt like I was being chased by...yeah, by God telling me I'd live through it if I just gave more money to Kerry. It worked!

[Borgnine]

58. It's true.

I live in rural Virginia, and Kerry/Edwards stickers outnumber Chimpy/Vader stickers 2-to-1. Consider that there were no Gore stickers to be found here in 2000, and it's amazing.

It feels exciting to be in a swing state and actually have a fighting chance.