Don't Believe the SUSA NC Poll that Had McJoke Up 20%

[Bullet1987]

It was SUSA right? Anyway, that has to be a HUGE outlier. I'm not saying it won't be hard for Obama to win there...it will. But for McCain to win by that much in a state that's trending purple would require damn near all of the 2:1 registered Democrats to stay at home. And extremely low Black and Youth turnout (both groups should be UP in 2008, not down). It would also require 2004-type turnout of Rethugs over Dems (something again, that's not likely to happen...turnout will be HIGH for us). McJoke would also need the vast majority of Indies in NC. And I'm thinking, if Obama can at least come even with him amoung Independents here...with high turnout, we COULD win.

So even if McCain does win NC, to think that he has a 20% lead here is laughable. Post-Convention, it may be 8%-10% and will go back down to 2%-5% once the bounce wears off. But TWENTY!!

[bluestateguy]

1. PPP today has McCain up 4 in NC

And I think that is where things stand.

[Bullet1987]

3. That's good news compared to the SUSA poll

[DarthDem]

2. Copy That

The PPP poll today was far more realistic - - and that's during the height of McClown's bounce. I am actually forcing myself to admit that the expenditure of resources in NC makes sense.

[quakerboy]

4. Doing the numbers

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7009149&mesg_id=7009149

A bit of self aggrandizement, but if you actually run the numbers, the +20 lead is pretty ridiculous in comparison to SUSA's previous NC poll. And you are correct. It comes out at an 8-9 point lead if you account for the shift in demographic polled.