Plouffe: "This is about the pursuit of 270 electoral votes." The states Obama, McCain need

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: Obama Campaign Sets Sights On Familiar Territory
Battleground States Take on Urgency As Race Tightens
By CHRISTOPHER COOPER and ELIZABETH HOLMES
September 10, 2008; Page A6

....A few months ago, the rhetoric coming out of the Obama camp was that the Democratic presidential nominee's victory could be sweeping, coming from flipping deep Republican states in the West or the South. But after the Democratic convention, Sen. Obama made a beeline for the traditional swing state he may need most, Pennsylvania, before quickly moving on to Ohio and Michigan. Winning two of these three states isn't only key to Sen. Obama's strategy, but also critical for his Republican rival, Sen. John McCain....

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In Pennsylvania, which has the fifth-largest haul of electoral votes, a seven-point Obama polling lead in late August has fallen to a two-point advantage in September. Michigan has seen a similar trend, while in Ohio, voters have pinballed between the two nominees.

In Florida, where vice-presidential nominee Sen. Joe Biden and Sen. Hillary Clinton have both campaigned on Sen. Obama's behalf recently, Sen. McCain's lead appears to be eroding. The race is a dead heat in two recent voter polls there. The McCain campaign said it needs Ohio and Florida to win in November.

The results of state polling are far more significant than those of national surveys, many of which show a resurgent Sen. McCain. "When you strip this down to its barest essentials, this is about the pursuit of 270 electoral votes," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told reporters this week. Mr. Plouffe said Sen. Obama starts with a good chance of winning every state Sen. Kerry won in 2004, along with Iowa and New Mexico, two states where he has a substantial polling lead. That outcome and retaining Pennsylvania and Michigan would yield Sen. Obama 264 of the 270 electoral votes he needs to eke out a November win.

Adding one of a handful of states that went for President Bush in 2004, such as Colorado, North Carolina, Indiana or Virginia, would put Sen. Obama over the top. Polling in these states suggests they are toss-ups, though some have been surveyed only sporadically. Sen. Obama has visited all of the states several times during the summer, and his campaign has spent months registering voters there. "Mathematically, you can see why," Mr. Plouffe said. If Sen. McCain fails to win even one of them, "it becomes hard."

Sen. McCain is in a similar boat to Sen. Obama: Because polls favor the Democrat in Iowa and New Mexico, Sen. McCain can't risk losing much else, since that leaves him only five electoral votes away from a loss. Though he could weather losing Montana with three electoral votes, losing Colorado or Nevada could do him in. With those sorts of margins, it is clear why Sen. McCain toured Ohio and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, in Sen. Obama's wake. Earlier this week, he visited the formerly Bush-held states of New Mexico, Colorado and Missouri. "These are called battleground states for a reason," Mr. Plouffe said.

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