This is about to arrive in Texas

[FightingIrish]

and the news is the governor of Alaska arriving in Alaska - and lipstick.

[valerief]

1. Wow!!! It's huge.

[CoffeeCat]

2. It it a cat 3 right now?

Wow, that looks monstrous and very well developed.

I hope all DUers from the area are safe and out of the storm's path.

[Lisa0825]

5. 2, expected to be a 3.

I'm contemplating evacuation... waiting til morning to decide. :scared:

[CoffeeCat]

6. CNN story says maybe a Cat 4....

...when it hits land.

Are you in the projected path?

Wow, this sounds like a very, very serious storm.

I'm no meterologist, but that storm looks about 300-400 miles wide.

I hope you move it on out, if you are anywhere near it! Stay safe. :)

[Lisa0825]

8. National Hurricane Center forecasts do not say a 4 at this point,

and I trust them more than CNN, but it could change so that is possible.

The problem is that this has been a very difficult storm to predict. The path has changed several times already, from northern Mexico to the Carolinas, and just tonight the track was moved about 100 miles eastward. Earlier I was fully planning on staying; now I don't know. I am about 50 miles east of the most recently projected landfall. I will wait until morning and see what the latest projections are before deciding.

I will stay for anything up to a low cat 2 level of effect (being hit head on by cat 2, or being on the outskirts of a higher level, and subject to cat 2 winds), but for anything higher than that, I'm most definitely outta here.

I am very nervous tonight. :scared:

[1corona4u]

14. Honestly, I think it's going to turn more in a southerly direction...

more towards Brownsville....they don't know when that ridge will give it up...that's the issue right now...

[WolverineDG]

17. Generally, storms that don't come through the strait

between Cuba & the Yucatan don't make it to Brownsville.

life-long hurricane alley resident
dg

[1corona4u]

20. Really? Seems a few have...

Nothing should be ruled out in this day and age. We're in a whole new weather cycle now.



Ike's history;

[uppityperson]

25. Well, other than all those...

Thanks for the graphic, always nice to see facts.

[JDPriestly]

23. It looks like it could hit Mexico rather than Texas.

I'm not a hurricane expert, but that is how it looks to me.

[DangerousRhythm]

9. I'm in SE Houston

So I'm personally hoping it moves away from us... sorry for anyone who's in the way though! There's just no good way to look at this. D:

[texanwitch]

21. West Houston here.

It has been a long time since 1983.

Stay safe.

[DangerousRhythm]

24. Thanks, you too!

I'm not a native Houstonian so I wasn't here in 1983 or even 1993, but I wiki'd Hurricanes Alicia and Carla and it basically sounds like it'll be more of that. D:

[Faryn Balyncd]

3. What the G.O.P. has turned into would make Ike vomit!

[wiseoldman]

4. Where is the Dynamic Duo.... the McSame Twins...

how will we survive without them when the Monster comes ashore?

[1corona4u]

7. We're still getting the winds from this....

and have been for 2 days now....about 20-30 mph and I am on the east coast of Florida....here is the last update on it, size wise;

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1090 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.


DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

[mb7588a]

10. It's gonna be a cat. 4 if not a 5.

It's intensifying at incredible rates. Last week it went from Tropical storm to cat. 4 in just 12 hours.

This is the best tropical weather source:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Lisa0825]

11. I've been following wunderground, and it predicts a cat 3 at landfall so far.

edited to add:

[1corona4u]

13. Yeah, I think it goes in a 3. Maybe even a strong 2.

It has a small eye,(8-10 nmi) though it is a large storm.

1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

OVERALL...IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. PARADOXICALLY...IKE HAS A VERY SMALL
INNER CORE...AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT
944 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS.
THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE
EXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES. SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE
AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD
EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
COULD WEAKEN. IF...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS
INTACT...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN
SOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE
UNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48
HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND
IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND
LGEM. THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING
INLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP
TO FINAL LANDFALL.

THE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL
OCCUR. THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
FORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS
THE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN
INTO THE GALVESTON AREA. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.
SINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO
KEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. EVERYONE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS.

[Lisa0825]

16. Thanks for that....

I've seen so many panic-ridden posts on the net tonight, here and elsewhere, and believe me - when you are HERE, panic is NOT GOOD. Realism, good; logic, good; caution, good; but we don't need to be scared more than we already are.

[1corona4u]

18. I've been through many hurricanes...

all of them in the recent past in Florida, so I know what you are going through. We thought Ike might make it here, but we dodged this bullet. I totally feel for you, but I do think...I'm not sure where you are, but I think this one is headed for Brownsville...just from my experience watching them...

[1corona4u]

15. No, it's not....don't scare everyone.

[blogslut]

12. Good wishes and love to my neighbors

We'll take all your rain, up here in the Panhandle. Stay safe ya'll.

[JFN1]

19. Rely on our fabulous MSM to keep things real...

stupid...and man, Ike is a freakin' monster. But, you know, Palin is "the thing." :puke:

[SheilaT]

22. Read Isaac's Storm

by Eric Larson, about the great hurricane of 1900 which devastated Galveston, and was the worst natural disaster in this country's history, killing at least 8,000 people.

Here's a link to a picture of the path of that storm (since I can't seem to do a copy and paste directly into this post):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Galveston_hurricane_track,_Sept_1-10,_1900.jpg

Looks unsettlingly familiar.