The Daily Widget – Mon 9/15 – O-269, M-269 – Iowa, New Jersey, Washington: Safe States

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

It was a busy weekend for state polls. There were 14 new state polls released since Friday, and only two states were polled more than once. South Dakota moved all the way to the right, which was expected. Nevada and Minnesota are polling in the middle lately, but they remain blue on the map. Minnesota isn’t really considered a swing state this year, and it should bounce back in a week or two.

What’s interesting is how Iowa has been polling in the wake of the republican convention. McCain has seen no bounce in Iowa, and it is fast becoming an Obama safe state this year. Two recent polls have shown Obama leading in Iowa by greater than 10 points. Kerry lost in Iowa by 1% in 2004, and Gore won in Iowa by 1% in 2000.

And New Jersey is safe as well. The last three polls for New Jersey were released in the past two weeks and they show Obama leading in all of them, the most recent of which gives him a 9-point lead there.

Three recent polls also show Obama winning Washington. Although Survey USA and Rasmussen are calling it close, other pollsters give Obama a wider lead. The Elway Poll has Obama leading by 8 points in Washington.

McCain currently holds a very small lead in the popular vote count while the Electoral College count is all tied up at 269 each. Trading for Obama is beginning to level off from last week’s 15% drop and should show an uptick soon, if the latest national polls are any indication.


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Iowa Obama 52, McCain 40, Barr 2, Nader 1 (Des Moines Register, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 616 LV)
Minnesota Obama 49, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 9/11, +/- 3.7, 734 Adults)
Minnesota Obama 45, McCain 45 (Star Tribune, 9/12, +/- 3.9, 1106 LV)
Missouri Obama 46, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Nevada Obama 46, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Jersey Obama 48, McCain 45 (Marist Poll, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 584 LV)
New Jersey Obama 50, McCain 41 (Research 2000, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (University of Cincinnati, 9/10, +/- 3.5, 775 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 32, McCain 63 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 46, McCain 39, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Hoffman Research, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
South Dakota Obama 37, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Utah Obama 24, McCain 62 (Dan Jones & Associates, 9/10, +/- 5.0, 400 RV)
Washington Obama 46, McCain 38 (Elway Poll, 9/7, +/- 5.0, 405 RV)
Washington Obama 49, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)



Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.





4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.


5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.


6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

[Curtland1015]

1. Fantastic job, as always!

Now lets see those Obama numbers go up, up, up!!! :D

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks ... it "feels" like a corner-turner to me :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. It's looking more and more like the "unlikely" scenario of an electoral tie

could actually happen. What a mess that would be. Still, CO could go either way so OH is essential.

[phrigndumass]

5. Someone mentioned Omaha might be very important for Obama this year :)

It won't come down to that, imo, but that would be a priceless scenario to dwell on!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[chiefofclarinet]

22. I've said a couple times, but I'm not the only one

For those that haven't heard this (it was in the AP after I figured it out), if we carry Kerry's states, Iowa, New Mexico or Nevada, and Colorado, we have a 269-269 tie. If we win 2nd District in Nebraska (read Omaha, Nebraska), we get that EV, and we win 270-268.

I have a good friend from Omaha. He says it's still red there, but it's getting better for us. I'm remembering that Nebraska went very Obama in the caucuses, especially Omaha. Hopefully, Obama still has infrastructure out there and he can capitalize on this 1 EV. If we can carry Western Iowa, (which we could; Iowa as a whole is in the bag) we can carry Omaha.

[Demeter]

4. Good Morning P-Man!

This may be the high point for the McCain campaign. A tie.

While I ought to be gleeful, I am not. A lot of people will suffer life-changing if not life-ending times because of the GOP. There ought to be some comparable punishment for those who founded the pirate economy, like going down with their ships. I think there will be. It all remains to be seen.

I'm thinking McCain's 527 funding is going to dry up with the crash of the banking industry. People will be too scared for themselves to try to scare anybody else.

[phrigndumass]

6. This reminds me of the movie "Deep Impact"

President Morgan Freeman's line about "but the water receded" ...

Kinda like the river that went through my backyard yesterday when the water jumped the banks of the creek next to my house. But I looked out this morning and all that's left are a few puddles.

The neoconservative movement is receding. They've done themselves in.

(btw, how did you fare with the rain up there?)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

13. Well, Our Dought Is Surely Over Now

and no major flooding ensued. The grass is green for the first time in a month. It's stopped, and the weather forecast is distinctly chily for this week.

On the whole, I'm glad it rained. We survived.

[tekisui]

7. I just put up a post about the 527s

Of the top 5, in terms of $, only one is conservative. Of the top 5 individuals contributing to 527s only 2 are conservatives. Now, Obama has untied their hands so they can do their thing.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7071976&mesg_id=7071976

[fight4my3sons]

8. Good Morning!

This is hard stuff to explain to lmd. I can't imagine what he tells his friends at school. :D

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

9. I can visualize LMD at school for show and tell ...

setting up a powerpoint presentation like Al Gore, and getting forklifted up to where Obama's numbers will be in about a month!

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[tekisui]

10. Once again, Iowa is taking the lead.

50 days. We all know that Obama knows how to close gaps and move ahead in less time than that.

I have a question for you, phrign. I read chuck todd saying that Obama needs to lead in place like WI and MI by 58%, due to 7% of the white voters who will vote against him because of "racial fears" even though they tell pollsters they are for Obama. I didn't want to start an OP to perpetuate that as a truth, but wonder where he got those numbers and if their is any validity to it. What do you think?

[phrigndumass]

11. Chuck Todd seems to support the theory of a "Bradley Effect"

That's what he's talking about. Give it a google.

But if you look at the history surrounding the Bradley Effect, it doesn't happen only to black candidates, but also to white liberal candidates (Jerry Brown, for one). So if you ask me, it's not a racial thing but rather an "afraid to seem conservative in California" thing.

Any "Bradley Effect" will be countered this year by an increase in voter turnout among African Americans, Latino voters and Hispanic voters, imo.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[tekisui]

12. Good to hear, thank you.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

14. Off to work kick, and Cheeseburger Bribery :)

This cheeseburger could be yours for a fifth rec :D

Enjoy your day!

[central scrutinizer]

15. another source

http://election.princeton.edu/

currently they have Obama 273 EV, McW 265 EV with the popular race a dead heat. Supposedly this site exactly nailed the 2004 election.

[phrigndumass]

16. I've been watching that site, it's great stuff! Very detailed :)

Thanks for sharing that link! :hi:

[livetohike]

17. Kick

:kick:

[Drunken Irishman]

18. Looks like you can shade Virginia blue!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3b77d5f-0d1a-4f6e-b195-ae05355e8eb8

[phrigndumass]

20. Nice!

Looking at the Virginia crosstabs, the difference from the last Virginia poll seems to be the male vote. Obama was down 10 points, but now it's a tie among males. Polling among white voters has increased a couple points as well.

When everything is averaged with that poll, Obama still trails in Virginia but only by 0.6 points.

Thanks for linking us! :hi:

[myrna minx]

19. Minnesota is Obama country. I know the post convention "bounce" will evaporate,

but we're just getting nailed with political ads for McCain, Coleman and 527's against Franken. Thanks phrig, for putting these together for us. :loveya:

[phrigndumass]

21. Is it just me, or did Sarah Palin borrow the Fargo accent? (Fair Goo)

Ya sure, I tell you it sounds fameelyer, donchaknow. :loveya:

(maybe it's just moosetalk)

[myrna minx]

23. Uff Da, she does sound like a Minnesotan.

It actually shocked me to hear her voice for the feeerrst tyymme. She could be from New Prague, pronounced Noooh Pray-guh. No, I'm not kidding. That's how it's pronounced here. We have all the lefse you can carry, too! :hi:

[Greyskye]

24. Enhancement suggestion:

Would it be possible/desirable to insert the Obama / McCain EV totals into the bottom of this? I realize that it's a mostly meaningless snapshot, but I keep finding myself adding these up myself to get a sense of how it's trending.



Great job, as always! :thumbsup:

[kwolf68]

26. Keep your eyes on the LEAN Obama

I am still not counting on Nevada, but getting CO would be MAJOR HUGE. I think even if the NV flips to McCain we still win the election. Colorado is HUGE if we can't win Ohio or Virginia.

[phrigndumass]

27. That's an easy fix, I'll be happy to do that :)

It will lead to a bit of confusion, though, but it would begin a good discussion. The totals for each candidate from that chart (278 Obama, 260 McCain) don't equal my snapshot projection of 269 to 269.

The reason they aren't the same is because momentum is currently on McCain's side. A state like Colorado polling at an average of Obama +0.3 would most likely end up in the McCain column if the election were held today (same possibly with Nevada) due to the nationwide slant toward McCain.

Thanks! :hi:

[RiverStone]

25. Ohio?

Great job as always! :hi:

Last week I recall reading a couple of posts that had Obama with a 4-5 point lead in OH?

Thanks for the stats...I'm far more concerned with the electoral college than the popular vote polls, sure hope Barack gets that EC lead back!

[phrigndumass]

28. Yes, Quinnipiac University showed Obama up by 5 points in Ohio

But six other polls for Ohio were released about the same time, five of them showing McCain with a lead there. It's very close! Could be the republican convention bounce, which will fade.

:hi:

[MarkBinPA]

29. Projection Database

Here is our conglomerate database of 75 electoral projection sites. I have to add this one.

http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm

There is a shift going on to Mccain at the state electoral map level, but if the national polling is an indicator, that shift could be halted and maybe reversing somewhat, but don't expect anything concrete ion state polls for about a week.

[phrigndumass]

30. I've used your webpage quite a lot this year ... Terrific resource!

Check out THE MATH Weekly also (Sundays).

Links:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/167

Thanks for adding us :hi:

[MarkBinPA]

31. Absolutely

Thank you for providing these great forums. Your analysis is much more in depth than many of the others, that we admit, are pretty much personal blogs. We have some outstanding sites in there and some personal trackers. Your ranks as one of the top.

Can you shoot me an email, I have a question regarding your site and updates.

[e-mail]

[phrigndumass]

33. Thanks for your kind words

I'll be happy to send an email to you ...

[grantcart]

32. welcome to DU 3 dudes

note that on their site they have phrigndumass on top of their collection of analysts.

[grantcart]

34. Virginia flipped and if Obama keeps Virginia that will be the election

The biggest story of all the polling is, IMHO, Indiana being so close.


Of all the scenarios none show McCain winning without Indiana.


Bush had a 20 point lead in Indiana and McCain is holding on with between 3-5 points and that is including the convention/Palin bounce.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/in/08-in-pres-ge-mvo.php


Has any other state moved as many percentage points for Obama?

Hmm that would be an interesting chart if somebody had some extra time - A comparison of the Bush states - which ones have moved the most? Remember all we have to do is Kerry plus 10 EVs.

[phrigndumass]

35. Exactly ... but we should hedge our bets :)

The last Indiana poll was conducted during the first day or two of the Democratic convention, so I'm thinking it will begin polling redder soon, much like Ohio. That's my gut feeling anyway. I wouldn't count too much on Indiana. Colorado and Nevada are the next most-likelies, imo.

Texas was Bush +23 in 2004 and Bush +21 in 2000. It's polling around McCain +10 this year. North Dakota is another one, polling around McCain +10 or so, and it was Bush +27 in 2004 and Bush +28 in 2000. Montana was Bush +21 in 2004 and Bush +25 in 2000. All the rest of the red states going 20+ for Bush in 2004 and 2000 have pretty much stayed in the strong red column.

(Don't laugh, I actually had these stats written down, lol)