At This Point In August 1980, Jimmy Carter Had

[Yavin4]

a 7 point lead over Ronald Reagan. Something to think about.

[El Supremo]

1. I heard today that it was 17%. n/t

[59millionmorons]

2. Yeah well think about this

No incumbent who served his full term in Gallup poll history has ever won re-election when he was not leading by atleast 9 points by September since Roosevelt in 1946 when he only lead by two. Thats 6 out of 7 full term incumbents who had a 9 point lead or more by this time who have won. The three who didnt have lost. Bush is now only tied. Remember back then they did not use likely voters only registered.

Caviat-Truman was down in 1948, but he took over after the death of Roosevelt. Gallup called that race for Dewey(Dewey lead in Sept was by 9). Well we know what happened there.

Caviat-Ford also was not a full term president.

INCUMBENT WINNERS-
1940-Roosevelt lead by 9.(Roosevelt won)
1944-Roosevelt lead by 2.)Roosevelt won)
1956-Eisenhower lead by 11. (Eisenhower won)
1964-Johnson lead by 30.(Johnson won)
1972-Nixon lead by 28 points.(Nixon won)
1984-Reagan lead by 21.(Reagan won)
1996-Clinton lead by 21.(Clinton won)

INCUMBENT LOSERS-
1980-Carter lead Reagan 44-40(Carter lost)
1976-Carter lead Ford 47-45 (Ford lost)(not a full term incumbent)
1992-Clinton lead Bush by 9 (bush lost)
2004-Bush and Kerry tied 47-48 (?????)

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1255
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1249
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1246
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1237
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1234

[misterphelps]

5. Great post! Very informative

the "likely" voter thing is important here... I think a Kerry landslide is possible. There will probably be a higher percentage of the population voting at any time in the last 40 years -thanks to Florida 2000. Reagan showed himself as "presidential" at the debates... I hope Kerry comes off assertively.

[cheshire]

3. So what?

[aldian159]

4. Yep

Good point.

Carter will go down as the President with the worst luck, excluding perhaps Hoover and William Henry Harrison, who caught pneumonia giving his inauguration speech and died a month later.

[ItsMyParty]

6. Here's the most important historical statistic of all--bar none

2000---UNELECTED SCUM WHO BROKE EVERY ELECTION LAW ON THE BOOKS IS APPOINTED PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES BY A CORRUPT SUPREME COURT WHO INVENTED A LAW AND THEN SAID THE LAW CAN NEVER BE USED AGAIN.............now everyone go put that in your review of historical trends, modes, predictors. Fucks them all, everyone of them, up, doesn't it?? So stop sitting on your statistics and help put a fire cracker under Big John.