Is everyone as positive as I am -- Bush is gone

[cthrumatrix]

How can people mope around when you look at two simple facts.

1) Anyone who voted for Gore - will not vote shrub.

2) People who did vote for shrub...many have seen the light. I've talked to many that admit they were "had" and they can't stand what has happened to our country under him.


Put those two togther..the rest is history

[RedSock]

1. yes i agree but

who are the electronic voting machines voting for?

*that* is the question.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. That is a good question

we just need lots of exit polls should the worst case scenario unfold.

[kikiek]

2. I agree!

Thanks for the positive reinforcement. Too many chicken little ones for my taste.

[deutsey]

3. The random variable here is the viciousness of the Busheviks

and their fanatical zeal to win at any costs.

I agree with what you're saying, but don't underestimate the vituperative determination of the Bushies to hold on to power no matter what.

[Billy Burnett]

8. They win either way

Don't forget, the * oligarchs were laying their plans and doing their advance work in the background during Clinton's reign. Going covert is fine for them.

Unless they all do the frog march and are brought up on charges. :shrug:

[RobertSeattle]

4. We still have the EV prediction on our side

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep01p.html

In regards to 1), I would say that Kerry should win the cross over race - the people who voted for Gore in 2000 will now vote for Bush in 2004 is far fewer than those who voted for Bush in 2000 who will not vote for Kerry in 2004.

[nyhuskyfan]

13. Oklahoma for Kerry?

Oklahoma went to Bush by over 20 points in 2000. I'm also skeptical of the poll that has Kerry ahead 59-39 in Tennessee -- seems way out of whack.

Also good to see Pennsylvania back in blue after that one hiccup a couple days ago.

[Kazak]

16. Man, how I would love that!!!

:D

[RobertSeattle]

20. See caveat

If a state looks fishy, click on it to see the data and the regression line. When there are many recent polls, the regression lines are fairly accurate. However, when there are hardly any polls, the lines are much less accurate. Please do NOT send me e-mail saying you do not like some particular state. Instead, call a talk radio program in that state and urge them to run another poll there.

(You are probably right about OK)

[pmbryant]

17. That guy just changed his methodology, and it is screwy

He is now extrapolating poll trends. Extremely dubious to say the least.

For example, he predicts for Tennessee: Kerry 59%, Bush 39%

His old methodology was weak(only taking the latest poll into account). His current one is nonsense.

Hopefully he will figure this out soon and either go back to the old, weak way, or figure out a better way to take into account more than one poll.

--Peter

[yellowcanine]

18. Shit he is using the regressions to predict the November result. Anybody

who knows any statistics at all know you can't do that. Just a totally bogus thing to do. Damn, I thought Kerry had turned things around but it doesn't appear to be true. It is still a crap shoot right now.

[GCP]

This is exactly what my husband says

He knows many republicans who won't vote for Bush and every democrat he knows will vote for Kerry.
But still I worry.

[moez]

12. We should all be worried!

It's sliding away (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) and we all seem content to pretend that it isn't happening.

Kerry needs to go on the offensive NOW.

[Jokinomx]

14. I am not to concerned about that yet...

Kerry is a very experienced politician. He would have been stupid to show all his cards to early. You can count on him coming out between this weekend and the election with some stunning tv ads... and I am certain that the repugs are getting sick in the stomach over the upcoming dabates... they will be the final nail in the coffin....

:dem:

[unblock]

5. republicans don't win when even WALL STREET is against them

i work on wall street and MANY conservatives and republicans are determined to get rid of shrub because of the elephant-sized DEFICIT that no one seems to talk about anymore -- as if the deficit hasn't been a major political theme ever since around 1978.

[kikiek]

6. I would imagine deflation is still a threat even though it isn't mentioned

[cthrumatrix]

9. 10 Economic Nobel Prize Winners support Kerry...you're right

vs Arnie's economic girlie man comment...what an ass...which appeals to the simplistic dumb down rethug base

[dumpster_baby]

7. highest interest in decades means superhigh turnout, which favors kerry

previously alienated voters who never or seldom voted will favor the challenger. Also young people will be voting more heavily, and they heavily favor kerry.

[michigandem2]

11. in total agreement...and

there are voters who either haven't voted in 2000 or ever..and they are likely to vote for Kerry..I am confident..the media is going to pound on kerry..but we know what is going on..they are the clueless ones

[cthrumatrix]

15. the differences is ..."we are sooo pisssed ...it will drive a huge turnout

[mazzarro]

19. Well I wish I can say the same for the Kerry campaign

I do think that the campaign is making the same mistake Al Gore's did - which is to bottle-up its more potent surrogates. Kerry campaign should let loose Howard Dean and Al Gore himself to take Shrub* on the war on terror and Shrub*'s TANG issues; they should allow Al Sharpton to take on Cheney and his corrupt energy entanglements, and also take on the idea of Clarence (uncle) Thomas as Chief Justice; finally they should allow, Gephardt, Wes Clark, the Clintons, etc to take up Shrub* on policy issues. All the while keep putting statements that these people are speaking for themselves - just like the reThuglicans have been doing with SBVT crap. I am sick and tired of lack of feistiness on the democratic side. Pursuing independents and moderates and thus avoiding the feistiness that is needed to rev up the base, will result in a depressed turn-out on the democratic side. Kerry-Edwards need to start blasting away NOW and take the base for granted!!!!!!!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. I find it hard to be pessimistic

Unless you get all your ideas from cable news or something.