Kerry increases lead - 8/29 ICR Excell Poll up 2 points over 8/4 results

[papau]

ICR EXCEL poll. Aug. 25-29, 2004. N=829 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.4); 701 likely voters (MoE ± 3.7). .

"If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents?" Order of Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards tickets rotated, with Nader/Camejo ticket always last. If other/none/unsure: "As of today, do you lean more to Bush, the Republican, Kerry, the Democrat, or Nader, the independent?"

....... Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo None/Other (vol.) Unsure
Among likely voters:
8/25-29/04........ 45 48 2 1 3
8/4-8/04.......... 46 46 3 1 3
.

Among registered voters:

8/25-29/04......... 42 49 3 2 5
8/4-8/04........... 43 47 4 2 5
.

Asked of those who answered Nader/Camejo, none, other, or unsure:
"Suppose there were only two tickets to choose between: George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats. Who would you vote for?" Options rotated

Net results:

.....Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Other(vol.) Neither(vol.) Unsure
Among likely voters:
8/25-29/04...... 46 50 - 1 4
8/4-8/04........ 48 48 - 1 3
.

Among registered voters:

8/25-29/04....... 44 51 - 1 4
8/4-8/04.......... 45 50 - 1 4

[michigandem2]

1. is it just me or is this a good news day??? nt

[lancdem]

2. It's not just you

:)

BTW, I love his 7-point lead among RVs.

[yellowcanine]

7. Registered voters is a better measure this early in the campaign, imo.

People decide WHO they are going to vote for before they decide IF they are going to vote. Likely voter not useful until last couple of weekw, imo.

[papau]

3. I know I have a smile on my face - but it could be drugs! :-)

:-)

[cthrumatrix]

4. funny how it works when you don't have the repug liars polling

[DemNoir]

5. So...

Does this mean Kerry is slightly less doomed now?

[Qutzupalotl]

9. No!!

Run! Hide! Sell stocks! Withdraw all your savings! Buy canned meat! We're all gonna die!!

On edit: Yes.

[MidwestTransplant]

6. What is ICR Excell?

Dem, Rep., etc? What does it stand for?

[papau]

8. Data on ICR Polling firm - they are used by ABCNews and AP wire service

http://www.icrsurvey.com/about2.html

At International Communications Research we're in the business of meeting the strategic input and information needs of our clients.

Since 1983, we've designed and implemented thousands of customized marketing and opinion research studies among consumers, businesses, and unique constituents. We provide our clients with direction in the areas of product development, messaging, branding, customer loyalty and social science research. As business people, we know what you need and how to get it accomplished around your demanding schedules, yet providing you with the accuracy and counsel you need (via reliance on CRT interviewing, computerized sample generation and control, etc. means we have increased the quality of your research data).

EXCELsm National Telephone Omnibus Study - - EXCELsm is a national twice-weekly telephone omnibus service designed to meet the standards of quality associated with custom research studies. EXCELsm provides fast turnaround, with topline data available the day after interviewing stops and full tabs in your hands one day later. EXCELsm can be utilized for a multitude of research projects, from one-time studies to long-term tracking; from advertising awareness to product usage; subject areas from broadcast media to packaged goods.

Sample Design - - Each EXCELsm survey consists of a minimum of 1,000 interviews, 1/2 male and 1/2 female. EXCELsm uses a fully-replicated, stratified, single-stage random-digit-dialing (RDD) sample of telephone households. The result is better representation, true independent samples from week to week, and greater accuracy. Sample telephone numbers are computer generated and loaded into on-line sample files accessed directly by the CRT system. Within each sample household, a single respondent is randomly selected using a computerized procedure based on the "Last Birthday Method" of respondent selection.


ABC News Poll: http://www.icrsurvey.com/icrinthenews/abc_bush.html

http://www.icrsurvey.com/icrinthenews/preselectionpoll_81400.html

AP wire service poll: http://www.icrsurvey.com/icrinthenews/ap_elect0700.html

[papau]

11. Note that ABC's current poll -also 8/29-is not as favorable - shows a tie

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/trend_083004.html

Washington Post-ABC News Poll: Elections 2004
Monday, August 30, 2004



This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone August 26-29, 2004 among 1,207 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 945 self-identified registered voters. Margin of sampling error for overall results and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
8/1/04 47 49 2 * 1 0 1

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2
8/1/04 44 50 2 * 1 1 2


Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 49 49 * * 1 * 1
8/1/04 48 49 0 * 1 0 1

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Write in Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 49 * * 1 * 1
8/1/04 45 52 0 * 2 1 1


8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

---------Approve--------- --------Disapprove------- No
NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opin.
8/29/04 50 31 19 47 13 34 3
8/1/04 47 28 18 49 13 36 5



a. John Kerry

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
8/29/04 RV 43 40 17
8/1/04 RV 51 32 16

b. George W. Bush

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion
8/29/04 RV 50 40 9
8/1/04 RV 47 45 8

[fertilizeonarbusto]

10. The best part

I read today that here in PA, Kerry leads 2-1 among voters under thirty, who are registering in droves and rarely get canvassed in the mainstream polls.