Kerry/Edwards could win Georgia!

[napi21]

I just received the attached email from the Georgia Democrats. God, I hope they're right! Wouldn't that be TERRIFIC!!!

Bush Shows Weakness in Georgia
GOP Firm Releases Misweighted Poll, Accurate Weighting Puts Bush Under 50% in Georgia



(Atlanta) This week, Strategic Vision, a Republican political consulting firm, released a poll showing President Bush leading John Kerry in Georgia 52-43, and claiming that a coming Bush landslide in Georgia could help Republicans in down ballot races. A closer look at the poll conducted July 30 – August 2, however, shows that Strategic Vision underweighted the African-American vote by at least 20%. Strategic Vision admitted that it weighted the expected African-American percentage of the electorate to 18%. According to the Secretary of State’s office, however, the African American percentage of the electorate has been closer to 23% in each of the last three general elections (22.9% in 1998, 23.2% in 2000, 22.6% in 2002).


As Senator Kerry can expect overwhelming support from African-American voters, a correct weighting of the poll shows a very close Presidential contest in Georgia, with President Bush leading Senator Kerry by only 4 points, approximately 49.5% to 45.5%. Any universally known incumbent whose vote is less than 50% is in serious jeopardy of losing a re-election bid. President Bush’s 4% point lead is only slightly outside the poll’s margin of error of 3%.


includes alternative results weighting the African-American percentage of the electorate to the numbers in the 1998, 2000 and 2002 general elections. It also has alternative results presuming that Senator Kerry receives 90%, 92% or 95% of the African-American vote.


“Despite Republican claims to the contrary, the Kerry-Edwards ticket is competitive in Georgia,” said Emil Runge, Communications Director for the Democratic Party of Georgia. “Georgia Democrats are working hard to improve education, fight crime and hold down taxes for working families, and we expect that to lead to victory for us up and down the ticket in 2004.”

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. WooHoo! Don't it make my red states BLUE!

[loudsue]

20. Hey, NSMA, that's kinda catchy!!

:loveya: I like it!!

:kick::kick:

[Gloria]

2. I'd feel better if it were a more recent poll!! But, it's great that

they've ratted out the misleading nature of this poll, anyway...

[flpoljunkie]

3. Very encouraging. Thanks for posting!

You might expect this inaccurate weighting of the African American vote from a Republican polling firm, such as Strategic Vision.

Help is on the way!

[napi21]

6. Makes you question ALL the polls, huh?

I've been questioning things like this for a long time. All polls have to use some kind of model standards based upon past history...% of people how vote, % by race, gender, location, etc. If the turnout this year is understated in the model, in total, or in any catagory, all the results will be wrong.

As a private citizen, I don't think I have access to their model standards, so who knows. I sure hope I'm right! And I hope Dems continue to be angry enogh to get out their door on Nov. 2nd!!!

[NV1962]

4. Why would Russians want to vote for them?

They just got rid of Shevarnadze...

:shrug:

Ok... That was lame... Couldn't resist it. :P

If GA really is in play that's GREAT news!

[Daisey Mae]

5. I was wondering about the Strategic Vision polls.......

Thank you for answering that question... I see them turn in a poll and it is always a few points in favor difference in the Repubs favor and then another like Zogby turn it back to where it was.
Thanks for solving that mystery.....

[GmoneyOwnsAll]

7. Doesnt matter, Georgia will go red...

They just recently elected their first republican govenor in over 100 years. Why? How? Well Georgia is 100% Diebold. That's how.

[napi21]

8. You're right about the Gov. But he's been in office for several years now

and there are quite a few people here who aren't real happy with good old Sonny. The most conspicuous group are those in the rural counties who believed him when he told them they would be able to vote on the Georgia flag issue again. Yea, they got the chance to vote on a new flag, but the one with the confederate flag symbol wasn't allowed on the ballot! They're PI**ED!!!!!

That anger isn't part of any poll model either.

I'm not getting my hopes up too high, especially just yet, but I'll say it again...WOULDN'T THAT BE GREAT IF WE TOOK GA!!!!!

[IronLionZion]

9. lot's of blacks and Dems in Georgia

and Atlanta is Dem. God Damn Republicans cheating in polls again. If the Dems allowed social moderates and conservatives to have a bigger part in the party, the South could be blue again. We don't have to agree on everything.

[napi21]

10. Why don't you think social mods are welcome in the Dem Party?

I don't think that's the case.

[IronLionZion]

12. the party has no use for pro-life liberals either

Sure anyone is welcome to vote for a Democrat, and run as a Dem. but the party doesn't support the more moderate and conservative Dems. That's why they wouldn't let the very awesome Pennsyvania Governor Bob Casey speak at the 92 convention. He's pro-life. And many other Dem politicians were either voted out or had to change to more liberal views to stay in office. It's hard to win when your own party won't support you.

The "solid" South would be better off with the economic policies of the Democrats, but the Republicans have hijacked the conservative social issues.

[napi21]

18. I disagree with you! Dems are PRO-CHOICE!

Do you not understand what that means? It means YOUR DECISION! If you are anti abortion, that's your choice! If you feel it should be a decision between her, her husband & their Dr., that's OK. I have NEVER heard a Dem say that you had to have an abortion because they said so. I have never heard any Dem say you have to believe abortion is OK because they said so.

The battle the Dems are fighting is for your right to decide for yourself!!

[IronLionZion]

19. Dems can be whatever they want to be

Big tent party right? But the party doesn't support them when they run in elections, even against right-wing extremists like Rick Santorum.

Not all Dems are pro-choice!

[iwantmycountryback]

11. very cool

Hopefully we can stop republicans from trying to suppress black votes. I'm really worried about that. And Diebold.

[PaDem]

13. I think Georgia is a waste of time........

the campaign should cherry pick a few Southern states to compete in, and Georgia shouldn't be one. I'd like to see a push for VA, NC, TN and Arkansas. Georgia will go Bush, and we can't afford to spend money there when the states I mentioned above are winnable.

[Frodo]

14. No, they really can't

Or, to be more specific, if they win Georgia, they will have already won about 45-48 other states.


In other words, no point in wasting much time in GA (for Kerry that is. I plan to visit next week).


Edit - BTW, I've also seem Republican claims (based on THEIR polls) that Thune is ahead of Dashle and that Bush has a shot at winning California.

From years in politics I can tell you the official name for such claims.... "pipe dreams".

[White Mountain]

15. Are you sure ???

Georgia 2004 Polls

Presidential Race - 15 Electoral College Votes

Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread 2000 Vote
Strategic Vision*| 8/27-8/29 801 RV 3.0 55 36 1 Bush +19 Bush +12
Rasmussen | 8/1-8/26 LV 4.0 53 42 - Bush +11 -
Strategic Vision*| 8/14-8/17 801 RV 3.0 54 38 1 Bush +16 -
Strategic Vision*| 7/30-8/2 801 RV 3.0 52 41 1 Bush +11 -
Rasmussen | 7/1-7/31 LV 4.0 53 42 - Bush +11 -
Rasmussen | 6/1-6/30 LV 4.0 52 41 - Bush +11 -
Rasmussen | 5/1-31 LV 4.0 51 39 - Bush +12 -

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Kerry will lose Georgia by at least 8-12 points

Gore blew by 12 and the state is now more Republican, if anything.

For at least a decade, Democratic chances have been ridiculously overvalued in Georgia state polls, much more glaring than any other state. The '94 Zell Miller gov race, '96 Cleland senate race, 2000 presidential race and both 2002 races are examples. In each case, the final polls overstated Democratic strength by at least 5%.

[loudsue]

21. You guys haven't been reading the BBV threads....

or you'd realize that the research has shown a great many discrepancies in Georgia's elections.

Diebold owns the machines there. The elections are easily stolen by these machines.

:kick::kick:

[Awsi Dooger]

22. BBV cannot explain anything in Georgia prior to 2002

And the results in several elections were dramatically different than poll indications. Zell Miller needed a furious rally to barely survive in the '94 gov race when he was expected to win handily. Cleland was facing au infinanced mediocrity in '96, expected to cruise by near double digits, then held on by a single point. In 2000, the presidential race was polled at single digits, often as low as a 5 point Bush edge, then he won 54-42.

[eleny]

17. Kerry in a landslide!

Kerry in a landslide!
Kerry in a landslide!
Kerry in a landslide!