Latest Polls:

[Nicholas_J]

National Polls:

ABC/WP: Bush 48, Kerry 48, Nader 1

Time: Bush 46, Kerry 44, Nader 5

NBC/WSJ: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 3

Gallup: Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 4

FOX News: Kerry 44, Bush 43, Nader 3

NPR: Kerry 47, Bush 43, Nader 3

LA Times: Bush 47, Kerry 44, Nader 3

Rasmussen (9/1): Bush 47, Kerry 47

State Polls:

PA: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1

IA: Bush 47, Kerry 47, Nader 2

MI: Kerry 45, Bush 42, Nader 3

MN: Kerry 47, Bush 46, Nader 1

OH: Bush 48, Kerry 42, Nader 1

FL: Bush 48, Kerry 44, Nader 2

WI: Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 2

GA: Bush 55, Kerry 36, Nader 1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

The Rasmussen finally has Kerry and Bush running equal.

All of the state polls skewing the electoral vote count come from the conservative based "Strategic Visions" polls which have been notorious this season fomr doing polls just around inportant events to attempt to skew polls in Bush's favor. THey did it before the selection of Edwards, and before the Democratic Convention, and it sem they are doing it now. Bt even the best they could get in Iowa was Kerry and BUsh neck and neck, where other polls have Kerry with a large and significantly significant lead on Bush. Every one of the stte polls listing Bush ahead in states where Kerry has still been leading are Strategic Vision polls. Strategic Vision polls tend to NOT be representative of the entire electorate.

[belle]

1. "Nader 5" myass

[RobertSeattle]

4. Always intrigued by any Nader % greater than 2

Statistic Fluke?
Bush Supporters trying to pump up Nader?
People who don't give a Cheney and just mess with the pollsters?
Pol takers themsevles screwing things up?
People picking Nader cuz it the last thing in the answer set they hear (I've done that!)?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. That's O.K. We know last time that translated into 2.7%

this time it will probably be less than 2% since the fear of 4 more years of this nonsense will scare off a lot of the Nader voters into Kerry's column.

[Julien Sorel]

11. I'm not so sure.

There are too many twisted fucks on the left who have bought in to the whole "sharpening of contradictions," and "There's no difference between the two parties" rhetoric the Nader people spew. Look at some of the threads started today, for example, that go something like,

"I'm having a hard time :shrug: .... countering :shrug: the Republican/media spin that ..... Democrats don't stand for anything ..... :shrug: How do I counter ...... :shrug: ..... :shrug: .... this?"


Such people aren't really interested in seeing Democrats win (if you need help understanding the differences between the parties then you simply aren't paying attention) , and if they aren't Bush supporters in disguise, which I'm beginning to suspect, they are Nadir voters waiting to happen.

[childslibrarian]

2. Thank you for this post

I was planning to drink a fifth of something otherwise....

[lancdem]

3. You forgot the ICR EXCEL poll done Aug. 25-29

that has Kerry up 48-45 among LVs.

http://www.pollingreport.com

[West Coast Democrat]

5. Two new polls with Kerry way ahead in WI and MI

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x715587

[Nicholas_J]

9. The Strategic Visions polls

Are well known to under-report minority figures, in particular data from block voters, which is why when they do polls in states thathave a low black population like Iowa, they cant fudge the polls enough to show a Bush win, just enough to have the data report that Kerry and Bush are neck and neck. Polls from the same day as the Strategic Vision polls that shows Bush and Kerry equal, have Kerry sic point ahead of Bush in a poll with a 4 percent MoE.

[blue neen]

6. Well, I hate to break it to them, but Nader was thrown off the ballot

in PA this week.

[Bucky]

8. The dip is a function of the Swifty attacks. Time to hit back HARD

Nail 'em for diverting troops from the hunt for bin Laden. Nail 'em for the seven minutes. Nail 'em for the Halliburton scandals.

Now if we only had a free press in this country...

[childslibrarian]

10. If only

We had free press...

[Nicholas_J]

12. In a way you are correct

I have bene examining all of the polls which suddely show Bush ahead adn have found an interesting anomaly.

Bush only leads among "LIKELY VOTERS" oin all of these polls

Whent the data is broken down into Registered Voters, Kerry leads.

But more interesting, when they break the data down into all national adults, Kerry still is ahead of Bush.