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http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2004/090104.phpThe Magic Formula: Two Out of Three?
By Charlie Cook
September 1, 2004
Matthew Dowd, the chief Bush campaign strategist, made the argument on Monday that whichever presidential candidate wins two out of a crucial three states -- Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- will probably be the next president. The next day, without knowing about Dowd's prediction, former Clinton White House Political Director Doug Sosnik made the very same forecast.
While there are certainly other important battleground states, Dowd and Sosnik are likely to be right. The electoral votes in Florida (27), Ohio (20), and Pennsylvania (21) total 68, plenty more than the 52 electoral votes in the seven other states that can be considered toss-ups right now: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Wisconsin (10).
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In the end, Dowd and Sosnik are probably right. From Labor Day on, expect to see each campaign and the 527 groups target their money where it matters most: more in the Big Ten, less in the Little Seven (the leaning states), and much more in the Very Big Three