With Zogby polls, Kerry 332 EV / 99.76% WinProb ; without, 288 / 77.40%

[TruthIsAll]

I ran the model to show the effects of using Zogby's latest
state polls vs. today's state poll data from
electoral-vote.com.

The model (with Zogby) is at:
www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

As you can see, there is quite a difference.

Go to hell, Zell.

Election Model using electoral-vote.com polls as of
9/1								
		ELECTION SIMULATION MODEL						
		5000 Trial Elections 																		
		Undecided allocation to Kerry								
Kerry:      	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%					
										
Trial Wins	2048	3016	3870	4443	4796					
Win Prob. %	40.96	60.32	77.40	88.86	95.92					
Pop. Vote %	49.78	50.17	50.57	50.97	51.36					
										
Average EV	265	276	288	300	312					
Median  EV	264	275	288	299	311					
										
Maximum EV	342	359	378	389	382					
Minimum EV	165	180	197	214	229					
										
States won	21	23	24	27	28					
										
										
This is the Election Model using electoral-vote.com polls as
of 9/1 in which Zogby's latest polls are included.												
		ZOGBY								
		ELECTION SIMULATION MODEL								
		5000 Trial Elections 								
										
		Undecided allocation to Kerry								
Kerry:      50%	55%	60%	65%	70%					
										
Trial Wins	4940	4971	4988	4992	5000					
Win Prob. %	98.80	99.42	99.76	99.84	100.00					
Pop. Vote %	50.60	50.92	51.24	51.56	51.88					
										
Average EV	324	328	332	335	339					
Median  EV	325	329	333	336	339					
										
Maximum EV	396	391	396	396	396					
Minimum EV	222	225	223	225	273					
										
States won	29	29	29	30	31					
										
										
										
Compare the Battleground states:										
.......Kerry Bush	 KerryEV
Zogby 49.26 46.37  199 
EV.com 46.61 46.26  89 
										
If the last column (net Diff) is non-zero, this means
electoral-vote.com does not include the latest Zogby
poll.						
										
		Zogby				 electoral-vote.com     Net
	EV	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	EV	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	EV  Diff
AZ	10	50	47	3	10	42	45	(3)		6 
AR	6	47	48	-1		47	48	(1)		0 
CO	9	49	46	3	9	47	47	0 		3 
FL	27	49.6	49	0.6	27	44	48	(4)		5 
IA	7	52	45	7	7	47	47	0 		7 
										
ME	4	49	44	5	4	49	44	5 	4	0 
MI	17	51	45	6	17	47	42	5 	17	1 
MN	10	50	45	5	10	47	46	1 	10	4 
MO	11	49.3	48.8	0.5	11	44	46	(2)		3 
NV	5	48	46	2	5	48	46	2 	5	0 
										
NH	4	51	43	8	4	51	43	8 	4	0 
NJ	15	49	39	10	15	49	39	10 	15	0 
NM	5	50	44	6	5	50	44	6 	5	0 
NC	15	50	49	1	15	45	51	(6)		7 
OH	20	46	51	-5		42	48	(6)		1 
										
OR	7	54	43	11	7	54	43	11 	7	0 
PA	21	52	44	8	21	46	47	(1)		9 
SC	8	42	53	-11		42	53	(11)		0 
TN	11	50	48	2	11	50	48	2 	11	0 
VA	13	48	49	-1		45	49	(4)		3 
										
WA	11	53.1	44.7	8.4	11	48	43	5 	11	3 
WV	5	42	49	-7		42	49	-7		0 
WI	10	51	46	5	10	46	48	-2		7 
										

[TruthIsAll]

1. Correction: Kerry 45.82, Bush 46.26 in current state poll national vote

assuming today's electoral-vote.com polling numbers.

Based on these numbers, Kerry's EV win probability ranges from 40% (if he gets 50% of the undecided) to 95% (if he gets 70%).

I believe the Zogby numbers are closer to the mark.

So, its Kerry: 51.24%, 332 EV and 99.8% win prob.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/