My State by State Projection of the Election: Pre-Debate....

[darius15]

This is a projection of what would happen if the election was held tomorrow. The numbers don't add up to 100% since I anticipate that there is a portion of voters who are undecided and others who vote third party. Please tell me if you agree\disagree with some of my projections. Thanks!


National:Obama 49, McCain 46
Washington: Obama 51, McCain 43
Oregon : Obama 52, McCain 42
California : Obama 54, McCain 39
Alaska : McCain 57, Obama 39
Hawaii : Obama 65, McCain 32
Idaho : McCain 63, Obama 32
Nevada : McCain 48, Obama 47
Utah : McCain 63, Obama 31
Arizona : McCain 51, Obama 40
Montana : McCain 53, Obama 43
Wyoming : McCain 63, Obama 34
Colorado : Obama 50, McCain 45
New Mexico : Obama 51, McCain 45
North Dakota : McCain 53, Obama 43
South Dakota : McCain 55, Obama 41
Nebraska : McCain 58, Obama 37
Kansas : McCain 57, Obama 40
Oklahoma : McCain 62, Obama 33
Texas : McCain 53, Obama 40
Minnesota : Obama 50, McCain 46
Iowa : Obama 52, McCain 42
Missouri : McCain 50, Obama 47
Arkansas : McCain 52, Obama 40
Louisiana : McCain 52, Obama 42
Wisconsin : Obama 49, McCain 44
Illinois : Obama 56, McCain 39
Michigan : Obama 49, McCain 44
Florida : McCain 49, Obama 47
Mississipi : McCain 55, Obama 42
Alabama : McCain 59, Obama 37
Georgia : McCain 54, Obama 43
South Carolina : McCain 55, Obama 41
North Carolina : McCain 49, Obama 47
Tennessee : McCain 58, Obama 38
Kentucky : McCain 56, Obama 39
West Virginia : McCain 50, Obama 44
Virginia : Obama 49, McCain 48
Indiana : McCain 49, Obama 47
Ohio : McCain 48, Obama 47
Pennsylvania : Obama 49, McCain 45
Maryland : Obama 58, McCain 38
Delaware : Obama 57, McCain 40
New Jersey : Obama 51, McCain 43
New York : Obama 55, McCain 39
Connecticut : Obama 55, McCain 40
Massachusetts : Obama 55, McCain 38
Rhode Island : Obama 54, McCain 34
Vermont: Obama 59, McCain 38
New Hampshire : Obama 47, McCain 46
Maine : Obama 51, McCain 43
DC : Obama 86, McCain 11

In my projection, a "toss up" state is one that is within 3 points for either candidate.


Overall EV (with toss ups)
Obama 269
McCain 163
Toss Up 103

With No Toss Ups
Obama 286
McCain 252