Do you buy Ron Silver's take?

[Fed Up]

He claimed that when the rubber hits the road and Democrats walk into the voting booth, many will say "I'm going to vote for this son of a bitch because he makes me feel safer." (And thus ignore all the bad stuff they don't like about Bush.)

I'd like to discount it as utter hogwash, but isn't that what happened in New York? Mayor Bloomberg could not have been elected without 9/11, and in a highly Democratic city at that. They voted for Bloomberg simply because he was the GOP successor to Guiliani, the man that saved New York. <barf> And everybody was frightened to change the party in power or maybe we might be hit again tomorrow.

Hope it's hogwash, but in these times I don't know.

[girl gone mad]

1. No, because...

see my other thread about the convention. I just don't think 9/11 evokes the same kind of visceral reaction in people as it did in the past.

[speedoo]

2. Bloomberg won because he spent a ton of his money and Mark Green..

ran an inept campaign.

Silver is an amateur when it comes to politics. He read a few books and now he thinks he knows everything.

What he is, is a putz.

[krkaufman]

3. Nope. Silver, like Dennis Miller, is too frightened to think straight.

Most people's respective realities are helping to draw the curtain back on Rove's wizardry.

[rockymountaindem]

4. No.

Anyone who thinks, as he just stated on Hardball, that Andrew Jackson's actions in Florida (throwing the Seminoles out) constitutes some kind of good example for current foreign affairs, has no credibility.

Besides, Bush* makes people feel safe? Not me.

[lapfog_1]

7. He revealed himself to be an imperialist with that statement.

And a very ugly one at that.

[oasis]

26. Yes, Silver was about to recite the PNAC playbook, chapter and verse

because he knows it and believes in it.

[shoopnyc123]

5. No...

Most people voted for Bloomberg because the Dem guys were screwed...Mark Green, (although I like him more now, MUCH more liberal).

[lapfog_1]

6. I hate to say it

but a lot of Jewish Americans are voting with the Repukes these
days (Ron Silver is the perfect example) because they believe
that the US should be fighting a global war on terror, and by
that, they mean Arabs.

So the argument that Saddam wasn't related to 9/11 just doesn't
hold water with these people, they believe that Saddam is the
same as Osama, after all Saddam DID support terrorists operating
against Israel.

This isn't ALL jews in the US of course, but many more are voting
Repuke this time (and with Bloomberg) than one would believe from
historical voting patterns.

[MidwestTransplant]

13. 1. Bloomberg will pull the lever for Kerry

2. a recent poll shows that 75% of Jews will vote for Kerry so your anecdotal example is useless. Not to mention the fact that you try to claim Jews hate Arabs and will vote for Bush because he presumably does as well.

[rockymountaindem]

17. I went to a little meeting of some Jews.

There were over a dozen present and even the lone Republican will vote for Kerry. Well, there was one of those "I'm beholden to nobody so I'm better than you" types, so I'll put him in the undecided column.

[lapfog_1]

25. Then you explain AIPAC to me

and the folks like Ron Silver.

I didn't say the MAJORITY of Jewish Americans are voting with
the Repukes, only more than historical records would indicate.

In this razor thin election, even a 3 or 5 percent shift
of Jewish American vote is important.

On the other hand, I don't think this implies an automatic
shrubya win.

[sir_captain]

31. Evidence?

Don't make charges like this without evidence....come on...if you've got it, show it to us...

AIPAC and Ron Silver are a tiny minority of Jews and and are statistically insignificant pieces of anecdotal evidence which is pretty much worthless anyway.

[sir_captain]

22. This is stupid bullshit

Jews have always been one of the strongest democratic voting blocks and will remain that way. I am aghast and incredibly offended by your statement that Jews, such as myself, agree with Bush and want to be fighting Arabs. Your argument is ridiculous, incredibly ignorant, and I can only hope that most progressive democrats also realize what garbage this is. Note: I am not attacking you personally, but your *argument* is extremely racist, and I really encourage you to rethink it.

[lapfog_1]

27. I'm not being racist.

That's a dumb thing to say.

Or are YOU telling me that there are no Jewish Americans
supporting the Likkud party of Israel?

And I also didn't say that the majority of Jewish Americans
are voting with Republicans, only an increased number over
historical voting records. I'll start the google search and
see if I can find the polling data to support that.

Please read what I wrote before accusing me or my arguments
of "racism" (I don't think of Jewish Americans as belonging
to a race, but a religion... or am I wrong about THAT too?)

[sir_captain]

29. First of all

thank you for dictating to me how I should consider myself. Most Jews consider themselves an ethnicity. I am not religious but I am certainly a Jew, thank you very much.

"a lot of Jewish Americans are voting with the Repukes these
days (Ron Silver is the perfect example) because they believe
that the US should be fighting a global war on terror, and by
that, they mean Arabs."

I read *exactly* what you wrote--firstly, you said "a lot" not "a couple." And then, still with no evidence whatsoever, you proceeded to say that "a lot" of Jews "believe that the US should be fighitng a global war on terror, and by that, they mean Arabs." Arguing without any evidence that "a lot" of members of an ethinc group buy into a bigoted (wanting to fight Arabs for no good reason) policy is, indeed, an ethnic slur.

Again, for the second time, since you apparently didn't read *my* post, I am not attacking *you*--I am only criticizing your arguement, which you should reconsider.

[lapfog_1]

38. I'm not dictating to you

You are dictating to me. You stated that my argument was based
in "racism". Again, I thought that anyone, of any background,
could become a Jew.

----------------------------------------------
http://www.jewfaq.org/judaism.htm

What is Judaism? What does it mean to be a Jew? Most people, both
Jewish and gentile, would instinctively say that Judaism is a
religion. And yet, there are militant atheists who insist that
they are Jews! Is Judaism a race? If you were to say so, most
Jews would think you were an antisemite!

------------------------------------------------------

So, let's drop the racism thing, shall we?

If you think of Jews as a race, that's great. I'll stick with
Judaism as a religion. And we'll agree to disagree.

And I did say a lot. And it is a LOT, although only a few
percentage points. What part of that is hard to understand.
A small percentage swing in a significant population group
is very important when the race is 47-47 or whatever the most
recent national poll says. It is even more important in a few
swing states which have large Jewish populations.

[sir_captain]

40. The definition I like to use

is the one Hitler used--he would have called me a Jew, and so do I. I may not go to temple or wear a Yarmulke, but that doesn't change anything. NYC, the city with by far the most Jews in it in this country, is full of Jewish-Americans who are not religious. It's true that the disctinction between Jews as an ethnicity and the religion of Judaism is not a super distinct line, and you are correct that anyone of any background can become Jewish, but that does not make the millions of agnostic Jews (I am hardly a "militant atheist" any less Jewish either... If you want to think of Judaism as strictly a religion, then, well, you're simply being ignorant, regardless of what that stupid website says.

I'm sorry, I'm not going to back off my contention that your argument is racist. You said, without evidence, that a large number of people from a group (I don't care whether you want to call it an ethnic or religious group or whatever) subscribe to a bigoted policy--that is, by defintion, a racist argument, just the same way that it would be racist to say that "lots" of African-Americans like to eat Watermelon and Collard Greens. If you can't see that, well, that's your problem.

Edit: In 1980, the US Supreme Court defined Jews as a race for the purposes of discrimination law.

[lapfog_1]

41. If you are going to use that statement

Then use ALL of it.

<snip>

In the 1980s, the United States Supreme Court ruled that Jews are a
race, at least for purposes of certain anti-discrimination laws.
Their reasoning: at the time these laws were passed, people
routinely spoke of the "Jewish race" or the "Italian race" as
well as the "Negro race," so that is what the legislators
intended to protect.

But many Jews were deeply offended by that decision, offended by
any hint that Jews could be considered a race. The idea of Jews
as a race brings to mind nightmarish visions of Nazi Germany,
where Jews were declared to be not just a race, but an inferior
race that had to be rounded up into ghettos and exterminated
like vermin.

But setting aside the emotional issues, Jews are clearly not a race.

<snip>

But again, I don't care, if you want to see Jews as a race, fine.
It doesn't change things. You are naive in the extreme if you
think that Ron Silver is all alone (or, as you would argue with
me, there are just a couple). That's sticking our (Democrats)
collective heads in the sand. There are other groups that
one could make the same argument about, for example, Southern
Democrats like Zell. They won't be voting Democratic this time.
Most likely, they didn't vote democratic in the last election or
so. Many are now registered republicans (although there is that
"Party of Lincoln" thing for them to get over). Are there HUGE
numbers of these people? Of course not. There aren't HUGE numbers
of Log Cabin Republicans, either... many of whom I believe - again
based on my gut feel - will NOT be voting for Bushco this time.

Why is this so hard to believe that there are single issue voting
blocks out there, some who will support Bush for one reason or
another and some that will vote for Kerry?

[sir_captain]

42. You're changing your argument

no one ever said that there aren't some Jews who are going to vote for Bush--of course there are! (About 20% of them, historically, and according to *your* polling date. Your *original* argument was that a "lot" *more* Jews are going to vote for Bush--and you have been proven wrong. Case closed.

[lapfog_1]

33. Ok first web search produced this

From thejewishweek.com website (and I have no idea as to their
political leanings):
-----------------------------------------

“What it points to is that the Jewish community is bifurcating around
the issue,” he said. “It’s increasingly split between those for
whom Israel will be the decisive factor in their voting and those
for whom it isn’t.”

While the poll suggested there is little hope of a GOP tidal wave
among Jewish voters, it did confirm a core GOP strategy, Sarna
said: focusing on Israel among the relatively small segment of
Jewish voters whose vote is shaped almost exclusively by that issue.

The GOP hopes to win modest gains in a handful of swing states,
such as Florida, where even minor shifts in Jewish voting could
make a big difference.

“It’s a smart strategy,” Sarna said. “It could be a successful
one for the Republicans.”

http://www.thejewishweek.com/news/newscontent.php3?artid=9772

They have polling data to back up the story.

So, tell me again that my ancedotal evidence is a pile of crap.

[sir_captain]

34. Your "evidence" is a pile of crap

From *your* linked article:

"A new poll by a partisan Democratic group shows that Republican outreach to Jewish voters may not produce the dramatic gains for President Bush predicted by some analysts, with John Kerry favored by 75-22 percent among American Jews."

"Despite the preoccupation of major Jewish groups with the ongoing Middle East crisis, Jews in the sample rated Israel as a relatively low priority in making their presidential choice."

The polling data shows an increase in Jewish support of Bush at 3% over 2000, and if you know *anything* about statistics, you realize that this is well within the industry standard margin of error, and is thus, essentially, useless.

Just admit that you're wrong. Next time, don't talk out of your ass, and don't try to assign ethnic and religious labels to entire groups of people without having any idea what you're talking about.

edit: I'm not arguing that this is not a Repub strategy--it's just one that's failing miserably.

[DemMother]

30. Absolutely wrong

A recent poll showed no gain for Bush from four years ago.

edited to include some facts:

from Zobgy:

"The Bush campaign’s efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%. Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only has Bush’s courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry."

[JohnnyCougar]

32. I heard the same ammount of Jews are with Kerry as with Gore

even without Liebermann on the ticket. Can't remember where I heard it, though.

[DemMother]

35. I just posted above you--from Zogby

I get so tired of having to dig up facts to dispute claims by people who have no facts to support their contentions (not referring to you but to those who think Bush has more of the Jewish vote).

And here's the link:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

[sir_captain]

36. It's sickening

how much this contention comes up. Thank you very much for being on the side of reason!

[DemMother]

39. Thank you too.

[bo44]

8. He's a pile

He has always seemed a little FUCKING PSYCHO but since 9/11 he found a soapbox from which to shout, "Look at me I am a grandstanding halfwit."

[Pax Argent]

9. No, because criminally insane people do not make

me feel safer. I've never voted in 19 years of being eligible, and I may never vote again, but I'm in it to vote against Bush.

[madinmaryland]

10. Ron Jeremy said that? Unbelievable!

I have never seen him use rubbers.

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. "but in these times I don't know"

You mught try your friends over at FR to get your answer.

[Fed Up]

19. come on man, I don't mean me.

I'm referring to the many morons in America that make decisions like that. Lighten up.

[soothsayer]

20. right on!

Good catch

[AnnitaR]

12. Nope!

All the people have to do is look at the security that was needed for the convention and see that we are not any safer.

I've had several people that don't give two shits about politics say that to me this week. "If we are so much safer, why do they have to lock down a city just to hold their convention?" This in heavily Repuke part of the country.

Silver is just blowing the same smoke all the media are blowing. People are seeing through this shit!

[sandnsea]

14. Scares the pee out of me

I wasn't as scared of nuclear holocaust as I am of Bush. I sure wasn't as scared of the Soviet Union as I am of Bush. Ron Silver's an idiot if he thinks Democrats feel safe under Bush. Course I already knew Ron Silver was an idiot.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

15. Silver needs to shut up!

Bush will loose Ron!

[pacalo]

16. The non-thinking, easily-led sheep would buy that.

I supported the Afghanistan attack, but I saw through Dubya the moment he began talking about Iraq. And I saw through all their "terrorist" rhetoric, too. I'm very suspicious of this administration; there's no telling what evils we don't know about.

[KharmaTrain]

18. Silver Is A Likudnik

His views come straight out of AIPAC. I'm Jewish, and tired of the pseudo-"liberal" Jews like Silver and Hororwitz and Koch make me sick since they are purely speaking from a one-dimensional agenda...Israel.

I've been to Israel, have lived with the struggles in that part of the world all my life, deal with anti-semetism and then the orthodox Jewish right wingers who are obsessed with Israel above all other issues.

Silver speaks for the right wing of Judiasm...the ones who glommed onto the JDL in the 70s and have been pro-Likud since the Begin days.

The other night when the doofus kept aping Iraq = Al Queda, I knew he was hopeless. Wanna bet if this regime does something against Israel, he has a mea culpa and "becomes one of us again". Good riddence to bad rubbish.

BTW...what makes this guy a "Hollywood type". Sheesh the GOOP really is baren of any creative people.

[sir_captain]

21. You don't know very much about NY politics

first of all, NY has a history of electing moderate Republican mayors--Giuliani didn't need 9/11 to get elected, after all. And Bloomberg was a Democrat until he switched parties to run for mayor--and he's hardly a Christian Coalition conservative, even if he's not my ideal politician. People voted for Bloomberg because he wasn't very conservative and the dem candidate, Mark Green, sucked.

[VOX]

23. Silver's not trying to explain, he's trying to sway voters. Fuck him.

He jumped on the fear bandwagon a long time ago, and is probably feeling linely up there, with all those right-wing idiots. He's trying to get some Democrats to sell out just like he did.

No thanks, Ron, your brand of kool-aid tastes funny.

[oasis]

28. Silver did a bad job in selling that bill of goods.

:thumbsdown:

[RummyTheDummy]

24. Ron Silver has been in a state of ecstacy all week

Probably in anticipation of the even greater wholesale mass slaughter of Muslims in a second Bush term.

How many have to die to make you feel safe, Ron? How big does the body count have to be for Israel to feel safe?

[Protected]

37. The problem is that Bush hasn't been strong against terrorism

I'm not sure what Ron Silver is thinking here, but blowing the crap out of Iraq while letting Afghanistan go by the wayside hasn't made us any safer. The terrorist groups are still out there. Osama Bin Laden is still out there. Ron Silver and the folks that share his train of thought have bought into lie that Iraq is somehow related to the war against terrorism or 9/11. Iraq didn't attack us, nor did they have the ability to attack us. Osama Bin Laden has proven that he has the ability to strike in the US, but it has been three years and we haven't been able to capture him or dismantle his terrorist network. (I can only imagine the outrage from the Republicans if Al Gore was the President and had failed the fight against terrorism this badly...)

Even if Bush happened to be strong on terrorism, there's still the fact that our economy is in horrible shape and many other domestic issues have simply been ignored by the Bush administration. Kerry is going to keep us safe and he's also going to help fix the hurtful domestic agenda that Bush has inflicted on us. The bar is set so low for the President right now that nearly anybody could do a better job than George W. Bush.

[henslee]

43. Silver is a B list actor. (on edit) Had to change my post because it

I just did some quick reseach and I'll admit it, I jumped the gun... He's more complex and intersetsing than I originally thought. But still, I think he is wrong on this one.

[JI7]

44. Bloomberg ran on a Democratic platform so he still had that with him