Well, it does not appear that it is over.

[Plaid Adder]

I was sort of hoping McCain would be more incoherent and obviously insane, and that is disappointing. However, I thought Obama did well throughout and was clearly the winner in the part that dealt with the economy, which of course is what most people will be focused on at this moment. Because even if they both did dodge the question about what the bailout would mean for their agendas, at least Obama clearly demonstrated that he understands that you're not going to get us out of this hole by trimming a piglet here and a hamhock there out of the federal budget. I was amazed at the way McCain kept going back to the earmarks as if that was the only @#$! thing in the world that mattered.

On foreign policy, well, McCain got the only laugh of the evening, which is a scar, and Lehrer let McCain give the closing statement, which is also not good. But I was surprised by the post-debate spin on PBS, where the 'expectations game' seemed to be working against McCain in ways that you and I cannot fully comprehend. Because apparently, to a lot of people in this country, it's going to come as a surprise that Barack Obama actually knows his shit. Which means that for them, Obama 'holding his own,' as it were, is a pleasant surprise, whereas for us, who already know this about Obama, the fact that he didn't reduce McCain to a white powdery substance comes as something of a disappointment.

In the days leading up to this when it looked like maybe McCain wouldn't show, I thought to myself, "You know, this is really stupid. He should just show up and lose and have it not matter just like Reagan and Bush before him." I am reminded as I think about this now that my assessment of who 'won' a debate never seems to have any positive bearing on the outcome of the election. Perhaps this is because I assess the wrong things. If it's true that it really matters more what people look like and how annoying their mannerisms are, I would say Obama won this one hands down. Because if I had to listen to "What Senator Obama doesn't understand" followed by that strange condescendingly pedantic pleading whine one more time, something would have had to get broken.

Also, I do not know the difference between a tactic and a strategy, unless it is that a strategy is a general plan and a tactic is a smaller part of it. But more importantly: I don't care, and I don't think too many other people who aren't me are going to be that impressed by the bickering over it. Talk about parsing words.

Oh, and one more thing:

It is clear that McCain always intended to do this debate. Because he certainly was prepared for it, and according to the talking heads we were staring at, he performed better than he ever has before in this situation. I hope Obama's people realized that, continue to realize it, and are strategizing (or tacticatillating?) accordingly.

On to Thursday,

The Plaid Adder

[central scrutinizer]

1. thanks - you summed up my impressions

Especially the last paragraph - I also was surprised that McW was so well prepared

[Drunken Irishman]

2. It was never going to be over. No debate has ever sunk a campaign. Ever.

Even bad debate performances don't sink campaigns. It might stall momentum, it may give a candidate a bigger lead, but it doesn't end the election. Debates have minimal impact and the only way they influence an election is if the race is tight. McCain is down by an average of 4-8 points nationally, this debate did not change that. Because of this, he is in trouble. He has two debates to rebound, but tonight was supposed to be his time to shine and he didn't. Instead, Obama looked far more presidential and it would not be a surprise if it bumped his lead up a point or two. It doesn't mean the race is over, since Bush bounced back in '04 after a really poor debate performance, but that should not have been expected to begin with.

Look at this in the sense of a football game. There is 5 minutes to play and McCain is down 14 points (two touchdowns). His drive is starting on his own ten yardline and he's got to score fast. He can't continue to run the ball, but tonight's debate performance was essentially a lateral run that gained zero yards. Yes, had McCain stumbled badly, it could have been a loss of yards in the context of this metaphor, but McCain still would have had three downs to gain yards.

It's 2nd and 10 now and only 4:30 left on the clock. The next debate is McCain's next play, does he run again? He needs a huge gain, or then it may be over.

[dbmk]

6. He is going to hand the ball to guy who hasn't played football before on the next play

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Then it could be over, if Palin fumbles.

But even then, I doubt that, because the VP debates don't generally have an impact. Or Dukakis-Bentsen would have crushed Bush-Quayle.

[MindMatter]

17. We have unique conditions this time

Let me just mention a few.

1) We have some serious "crisis fatigue" America doesn't want another hothead or bumbling fool. To the extent that McCain might have appeared reckless or unthoughtful in this debate, that works against him

2) Obama is a black man (stating the obvious). There are a lot of people who are not overt racists, but who have never gotten their minds around this. If tonight's appearance (regardless of how McCain came across) allows them to look at Obama as a truly viable candidate -- if they can now see him being President -- then this debate will have a huge impact.

3) McCain would be the oldest President to take office. He looks and acts every bit of his age. This plays back to the "crisis fatigue". Looking at him in this scene, one has to wonder if he would live through 4 years. Even if people thought Palin were qualified, America doesn't really want any more drama, such as having to go through a Presidential succession mid-term.

4) 1% matters. We all know what the dumbing down of our educational system and the right wing talk radio have done to our society. In the very best of cases, we are looking at a 5 point spread, and it is more likely to be closer to the 1-2% spread we've seen in the last 2 elections. In this environment, if the debates make a 1% difference, that is huge.

[Midlodemocrat]

9. Actually, Nixon/JFK comes to mind.

That debate sunk Nixon's campaign.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Well it didn't sink it right away.

The campaign still continued and the outcome was in doubt well into the morning after polls closed. What I'm saying is that outside of McCain calling Obama the n-word, or having a complete meltdown (which no one should have expected), this was not going to shake up the race. It might be what puts Obama over the top, but that won't be known for a few weeks, or as late as election night.

[WinkyDink]

19. Not even Nixon's 5 o'clock shadow? Reagan's "There you go again"? Bush's looking at his watch?

[calmblueocean]

3. Always enjoy your thoughts, Plaid Adder!

I think as far as the independents go, McCain's refusal to give Obama the respect of eye contact probably hurt McCain a lot more than he knows yet. Often the real messages during a televised debate like this are in the body language of the candidates, and McCain's was rigid, stiff, tense, simmering. Not qualities we want in a president. Especially not qualities indie voters want in a president.

[Rebellious Republican]

4. PA, You Madam are a weaver of words, wish I had the half the ability

to express my opinions in written prose as you.

:applause:

[uponit7771]

5. You're right about "holding his own" and that's why he won, he was supposed to be suite and showed..

..he was presidential.

[Starlight]

8. Excellent points. And I agree with the tactic vs strategy bs. WTF?

[MattBaggins]

21. Super simplified layman's

Strategy-->Why and What is the Goal
Tactics-->How do we actually do it

[Starlight]

22. But no one cares. That's why it was a really stupid and petty point for McCain to belabor.

[sandnsea]

10. Strategy: Stay or Leave Iraq

Tactic: Surge. Who gives a crap when the strategy is wrong.

[Tatiana]

12. You've nailed it. I also said McCain had every intention of doing this debate.

He was well prepared for it and there was a reason those "McCain wins debate" ads were ready to go. All this "suspension" mess was an attempt to throw Obama off his game and/or stall the Vice-Presidential debate.

The McCain camp really expected him to win and I can see why. This was probably McCain's best public performance... certainly his most confident and coherent one (and that's not saying much). This debate on foreign policy was geared to McCain's strengths and he didn't win because Obama stood tall and Presidential-looking at the end. That means McCain LOST.

It's only going to go downhill from now on. McCain doesn't have any new tricks, but Obama played it cool and held fire several times. We'll see more weapons from his repertoire in the next Presidential debate. And I'm betting that's where he will really draw blood.

But for now, it's Mission Accomplished. All Obama had to do was show a good command of foreign policy (check), look Presidential (check), reassure the public of the type of CIC they want in times of crisis (check), and win over some Independents (check, according to all the polls I've seen conducted after the debate so far).

[LiberalLovinLug]

23. I agree

The "Mr. McCain goes to Washington" act was a stunt to try and throw off the timing and momentum of the Obama camp. Like calling a time-out on the kicker from the opposite team just before the snap. Meanwhile McCain was prepping hard for it behind closed doors. It was a desperate move by a desperate party. It didn't work.

[Lil Missy]

13. Bingo! He was preparing for this debate all along, and never intended to skip it.

He just wanted to hit the "Reset" button, AGAIN, to change the subject and/or lower expectations.

[question everything]

14. As Biden commented: it was McCain who does not know the difference

between tactics and strategy. The surge was a tactic to support the strategy of regime change in Iraq.

Oh, and Obama coming back with the bracelet was great, too.

[Number23]

24. Biden's after-debate comments on CNN were fantastic

My husband, an Aussie who is bewildered and exhausted by US politics, after listening to Biden turned and looked at me and said "now why couldn't Obama have sounded that straightforward?"

Biden came out SWINGING. McCain was DEAD WRONG on A, B, C and every damn thing else. He was short, crisp and knew his sh*t.

I think Obama did quite well in the debates but as I've been (happily) seeing on this board, there are luckily very few people cheerleading that Obama knocked McCain out of the park because that's simply not what happened. Obama won but McCain definitely held his own, except for those not so little lies he just can't seem to keep from telling.

[question everything]

31. Agree about McCain. I was expecting a tired bumbling man

and he pretty much held his own.

I want to believe the pundits who say that, after all, the foreign policy issue is supposed to be his own and there is no way to go but down.

[PATRICK]

15. It was clear

that after 37 minutes fumbling on the bailout McCain just shifted gears into a totally rehearsed act and the change of pace was startling as he slowed the debate to a crawl with anecdotes and tall lies.

I am glad he is not totally destroyed yet, but we reach inevitable massive turning points and this one turned the screw very hard against McCain. The irony was that the stuttering start of the debate was on the one one lingering obsession that stands in the way of the voters seeing the way totally clear immediately. The bailout has to be dealt with in the next debate to give some comfort to people needing to see hope and change in Obama. of course, I am talking about landslide above mere victory at this point. The enormity of the public move has not yet happened in its full potential and may mature agonizingly slow, the best way to assure Dole Two and better this fall.

[Bette Noir]

27. Sorry, pet peeve here.

"Enormity" doesn't mean "bigness," it means "monstrous evil." "Scale" or "importance" would have been better work choices.

My apologies.

[bertman]

28. Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary, 1979 gives as its third definition: the quality or state of

being huge: IMMENSITY. The first two definitions relate to "monstrous, outrageous, great wickedness" and "a grave offense against order, right, or decency."

Like many other words in common usage the third definition of enormity seems to have developed into the most frequent application of the noun.

The wife and I just had a dictionary consultation due to her frequent use of the word "notoriety" as a synonym for general recognition, when I had always thought of notoriety as having a negative connotation.

[Jazzgirl]

29. Merriam says the same thing.

n/t

[gulliver]

16. McCain clenched his jaw every 2-3 seconds.

He's a boiling spastic. I definitely saw crazy.

[uppityperson]

18. MrBlinky McNutty.

[Pale Blue Dot]

20. I respectfully disagree.

Based on the polling and what I saw with my own eyes, it's over. It doesn't matter that McCain wasn't "more incoherent and obviously insane". McCain is behind in the polls. He needed to be more than just competent (and I would argue that he barely succeeded at that); he needed to have a decisive victory. He need to make Obama look like the "more incoherent and obviously insane" one.

McCain lost this debate. More importantly, he lost it in the eyes of independents.

Barring martial law, it is over.

[Demeter]

25. Thank You For Watching and Reporting

I just don't have the stomach for having to listen to a GOPper Whopper Night.

[Bette Noir]

26. I was disappointed in McCain's performance.

I fully expected him to slip in a puddle of his own drool, and fall on his keister. (Since we're honoring Reagan, here.)

He must have changed his meds since last week.

[Overseas]

30. K&R -- thanks for your delicious specifics !!

Thanks for opening with a droll description of our disappointment that there wasn't a total meltdown in Johnny's performance last night but merely lots of jarring static. Sigh...

Your point is well taken. Johnny did indeed seem well rehearsed. Tensely so. Ever so wound up. Sure seems like he stormed on back to Washington and the whole week's performance fully planning to proceed with the debate. Kawabunga!

I was surprised the news chat guys didn't remember Obama being the one who listed conditions for any bailout to be accepted, including (a) no cash to CEO pay, (b) reimbursement and profits as the market improves, and (c) oversight requirements. He had conditions we the people want met.

You got Johnny's fixation on earmarks and cutting spending down really well. I hope others will see it like a kind of odd tic. Kept jerking back to that. Like when asked to defend his $350 billion in continued tax cuts to corporations and rich people who have admitted they don't need them. He just popped on back to cutting spending. And those damn earmarks.

And then he made some peculiar comment about the Bear DNA study-- a trifle pervy, something about criminal activity? Singling out that expense was definitely Anti-Science. (Inspired by his fundamentalist co-star?) While he was sneering, I was wondering whether the study might be required for forest ecosystem management or something, and thought those would be really cool jobs to have for some people. I'd like to work on that project, I was thinking. (When you waste the billions that Republicans do, you gotta squash those pesky million dollar science projects. You need that cash to bail out your pals couldn't handle the deregulating they got you to do for them.)

And in budget cutting after the Wall Street Rescue, Obama gave examples of how he would analyze his budgets and make the most efficient cuts-- like eliminating the subsidy to insurance companies for Medicare payments, I believe. He gave us confidence that he'd study his budget and not make rash slashes. He would take the time to make the most strategic cuts.

Whereas Johnny McBombBomb had been dashing about all week and seemed all pent up and couldn't even muster up the courtesy to look at his opponent, the Presidential selection of millions of his fellow Americans.

Many thanks to Senator Obama for noting that one of McSame's rash slashes was to be the taxing of medical benefits. It's an appalling, insensitive thing Johnny is planning to do and Obama made sure that we heard about it. That's a real "my friend."

Senator Obama did that in a couple of places. Got out critical information about Republican mismanagement and destructive planning. Reckless Republican spending. Lies about the Iraq war. Alternative energy funding.

He also got a chance to tell the truth about his tax plans and slip in instant rebuttals when they were distorted by McSame. No cursing, just 3 quiet words "That's not true."

BIG WIN for Obama, I think. I appreciate your reminder that for lots of people that will have been their first exposure to the breadth and depth of Senator Obama's intelligence, and his passion for public service. They will have seen that he knows a lot about foreign policy and could easily hold his own in the international arena. (Perhaps better than his rude, steaming, petulant opponent.)

Now let's see how Senator $520 Shoes, who wants to privatize social security, does in the next one.