Prediction: Debate worth about three points in national polling

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

(3 point increase for Obama=6 point difference swing)

What do you think?

(Keeping in mind that there's probably only 8-10 points worth of voters in play at this point, so even three points is ginormous.)

[TexasObserver]

1. let's hope The Kid has opened a gash of 8 points above Grumpy's eye

[Marsala]

2. Hopefully.

OTOH McCain has been so erratic lately that it will be hard to distinguish a boost from the debate from a regular "McCain's Insane" boost, not to mention the Palin Effect.

[Schulzz]

3. If the polls aren't fixed, Obama will gain some points.

All Focus Groups Polls showed him winning the majority of undecideds and independents. But I would not trust every poll to show that.

[stevenleser]

4. I say 5-7% Plus Obama, which will mean Ohio, Florida and other previous leaning McCain states

Its Obamas now.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. 5-7% on top of current polling, or 5-7 average lead?

I think Obama will pick up a few points on top of his current edge; totaling a fairly stable stable 8% lead

[stevenleser]

7. On top of current polling. See...

this post of mine http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7213195

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. People don't automatically switch their votes to the debate winner

That poll is a 14% edge among persuadable voters on who won the debate. Some of those folks will switch their preference, some will stay undecided, some who think Obama won will still stick with McCain.

Kerry won polling on all three debates vs. Bush, but we know that not all those people went on to vote for Kerry.

A good night for Obama, but a 6% bump on top of his current lead sounds too strong to me.

But either way, I expect him to average 49% or above next week, which is an important measure.

I would prefer your prediction to be the way it turns out, of course.

[stevenleser]

13. That's why I interpolated to a 5-7% increase for Obama

What is more telling is that in every poll I have seen (that was scientific) and thus far that means the CBS and CNN post debate polls, 20% or more of respondants think that Obama would do a better job on the economy. That is HUGE HUGE HUGE stuff. That is going to do some serious moving of the numbers.

[vanderBeth]

5. It will be good for Obama if it does move.

[wildflower]

8. I'm trying to remember, did Kerry gain in the polls after the debates?

I remember him as basically the clear winner in all three.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. Yes, Kerry was down 9 prior to the debate and died the race the week after.

However, he lost ground in the next two debates.

[Teaser]

12. "died"

well, his campaign was never all that alive.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. haha, shit.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. He gained fairly continually after the pug convention

so he did gain from the dabates, but not by the margins he was said to have won the debates.

He won the "who won" polling on all three debates. Two blow-outs and one close win.

[grantcart]

15. I think it will be hard to tell because of the Wall Street bailout

CNN had some very early numbers that showed women jumped for Obama and that makes sense

and that people over 50 now jumped for McCain - presumably because they were worried about their 401k and their retirement.



I couldn't watch much of it but the opening question seemed to be very telling to me. Obama gives a graduates school briefing and McCain starts talking about Dwight Eisenhower and firing somebody. I think that they think Obama will put more money in their pocket and McCain will talk about old dead guys.

It might be quite a big jump but its more than just the debate its all this last week and the debate.


Palin/Biden will be dessert.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. Yes, any effect would be hard to isolate

Overall, I expect a 50%-42% kind of dynamic but it's pretty much impossible to isolate the debate from the news, for reasons you've given

[JeffR]

16. +/- 2, tops

Probably 1, but it'll go to O, so I say hellzyes.