Canadian Poll Shows Bush Bounce

[Selwynn]

I'm posting this mainly as an alternate to the posts about how bush's poll numbers are dropping during the convention, which I highly doubt. I basically highly doubt all polls, and I am neither stupidly enthusiastic nor hopelessly pessimistic. The election is still too close to call, with a reasonable chance Bush will be elected, and a reasonable chance Kerry will be.

(My personal bias is to believe that Kerry is the underdog.)

Reuters:Canada
Canadian Poll of Americans Shows Bush Bounce

Thu September 2, 2004 9:53 AM GMT-04:00

OTTAWA (Reuters) - This week's Republican convention has given U.S. President George W. Bush a boost in the polls, a Canadian survey of American voters showed on Thursday. The Leger Marketing survey, published in Montreal's Le Devoir newspaper, gave Bush an edge of 51 percent to 47 percent over Democratic challenger John Kerry.

The poll was taken on the first two days of the convention, Aug. 30-31, and company President Jean-Marc Leger said it was the first to emerge based on data during the Republican gathering. "Americans are responding well to the convention," Le Devoir quoted Leger President Jean-Marc Leger as saying. "It remains to be seen if the vote will solidify in the two weeks after the convention."

Only 18 percent said they might change their minds by the election date, a sharp drop from 60 percent in the beginning of September 1992 and 40 percent at the same time in 2000, Leger said.

http://www.reuters.ca/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=topNews&localeKey=en_CA&storyID=6136052

EDIT - fixed link.

[WI_DEM]

1. During the same period ARG relesed their poll

giving Kerry a 46-45 lead, taken Monday-Wednesday of this week. I don't doubt in the end Bush will get some type of bounce but it is not likely to last.

[aquart]

2. Any chance of a valid link?

[unfrigginreal]

4. Here ya go

http://www.reuters.ca/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=topNews&localeKey=en_CA&storyID=6136052

[unfrigginreal]

3. A bit of a stretch for them to claim a bounce from the convention

the last poll they took was in June and Kerry and Bush both had 48%. Had they polled the week before the convention then they could attribute the Bush gain was from the convention.

I don't doubt that there will be a small bounce for Bush, but honestly none of the polls have shown it yet.

[unfrigginreal]

5. I stand corrected...Rasmussen showing a small bump for Bush today

Thursday September 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.

This is the first time that Bush has reached the 49% mark in the Tracking Poll since Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday (March 2). It's also the first time Bush has been up by four points since April 26.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[devinsgram]

7. You have to remember those polls were taken after

McCain's and Rudy's speech. Bet they come down after Zell's speech.

[Selwynn]

6. I don't agree that no polls have showed it.

Whether they show 49-47 bush, or 46-44 bush, or 51-48 bush, numerous polls now give bush the lead.

To me Kerry's victory will depend on telling the truth, differentiating himself from bush, fighting back against bush hard and going on the offensive, and wining the debates without looking like a bully.