Bush Vulnerable to Move by Undecided Voters, Poll History Shows

[Nicholas_J]

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush must overcome 48 years of history to win re-election over Democrat John Kerry. Since 1956, none of the three presidents who trailed in a Gallup Poll after February of a re-election year won a second term.

Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat in the latest ABC News Washington Post poll released Monday as Bush prepares to accept his party's nomination at the Republican National Convention in New York. Because most undecided voters typically back the challengers, Bush must open enough of a lead to withstand an election-day shift to Kerry, said Frank Newport, the Gallup poll's editor in chief.

``The undecided would break the other way,'' said Newport, 54. ``He could be in trouble.''

Bush overcame the 6 percentage point lead Kerry had in a Gallup poll taken June 3-6. The three most recent polls by the Princeton, New Jersey-based organization found the president with at least a 3-point lead, including 51 percent to 47 on Aug. 23- 25, although all were within the margin of error.

Undecided voters tend to cast ballots for a challenger in greater numbers because they are dissatisfied enough with the incumbent that they can't commit to keeping him in office, said David Rohde, a political science professor at Michigan State University in East Lansing.

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