Could Obama have won Texas?

[BluegrassDem]

I know he's not contesting the state, and I don't blame him considering he doesn't have infinite resources, but just for conversation sakes, do you think if Obama had gone out full tilt in Texas, he could've possibly picked it off?

I keep thinking of how great his ground game is in places like NC and VA and I can't help but to dream that if Obama went all the way there, he might've had a good shot at it. Or, is Texas one of those states that will never flip to blue?

[WI_DEM]

1. probably not, but my guess is he will get better than 45% of the vote.

[Stop Cornyn]

5. I think McCain won't break 50% (look for a strong Libertarian performance and over 46% for Obama).

It doesn't help that the Ortiz staff is running a PUMA blog.

[LynneSin]

7. If he gets 45% then I think we could turn Texas back one day soon

I don't know what happened to that state, it use to be a solid "D"

But then when the Jeffords incident happened it reminded me that what is democrat in on state might not be the same thing in another. Bush always chimed in about how he could work with democrats in Texas but I was told that Texas democrats tend to lean towards the center just like New England Republicans (like Jeffords) lean center too.

[TxBlue]

8. I haven't seen 1 McCain bumper sticker

One redneck neighbor out in country has a Mccain yard sign.

Few Obama bumper stickers but most are under radar.

Few people I talk to are happy with economy.

On local tv blogs surprising how many people are for Obama.

Typical koolaid drinkers around but thinking folks are voting for Obama.

[Stop Cornyn]

2. If all the stars aligned and he held his mouth just right. Obama-Richardson would've been VERY close

[damntexdem]

3. I don't think he can win it this year; but Texas may be flippable.

Dem's could even get a majority in the state senate.

[bookman]

4. No, but...

..Texas is turning purple. The state legislature is the first thing we have to turn.

Me, I'm in Bush country.

My rep voted for the bailout. One of four republicons to do so.

[dmallind]

6. Doubt it

2012? possible. 2016? Well that's a maybe perhaps with demographics shifting, but there's an awful lot of ingrained social conservatism to get rid of.

[crazy_vanilla]

9. He only came here once during the primaries, if I recall correctly

We would have loved to see him more, but we get it that he needs to tend to the swing states.

Even tough I am seeing the winds in TX changing, I am sad to say, there are still too many fundies around here.

[Erin Elizabeth]

40. No, just off the top of my head he came to Dallas, Ft. Worth

and Houston.

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Texas is too expensive and the GOP has all of the infrastructure

Ideologically Texas could be trending toward swing state status and at some point in the next decade or so it may do that. But Democrats simply don't have the money to spend contesting the state. Look at John Cornyn. If he were a Senator in almost any other state except maybe Utah or Idaho, he would have a serious Democratic challenger given his dismal approval ratings. But the DSCC simply can't pony up the cash to run a serious challenger in Texas.

It's like the Republicans trying to win statewide in California. Polls show that they might have a chance in some races, but the state is too expensive for them to gamble the money on it.

[MagickMuffin]

95. John Cornyn DOES have a SERIOUS challenger his name is Rick Noriega

Rick Noriega is no stranger to public service. Having served in both the armed forces and in public office, he is prepared to restore integrity in the U.S. Senate.

Rick felt compelled to answer the call and serve in the U.S. Army in the wake of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis. He was a commander of the 143rd Infantry Detachment (Long-Range Surveillance), an aide to Brigadier General David Heuer, and aide-de-camp to General Samuel Turk, Adjutant General of the Texas Army National Guard.

But Rick's service in the Army did not end there. He became a Lieutenant Colonel in the Texas Army National Guard, and served as deputy garrison commander of the KMTC training facility in Kabul, Afghanistan after 9/11. Rick was deployed for 14 months and spent a year in Afghanistan until August 2005, and he was also the Laredo Border Sector Commander in Operation Jump Start during the summer of 2006.

Upon his return from Afghanistan, Rick was tapped by Mayor Bill White as Incident Commander of Houston's Hurricane Katrina relief efforts at the George R. Brown Convention Center. His leadership with the military, as well as his record in community service, was crucial as the GRB was transformed into a virtual city that cared for nearly 30,000 evacuees, and was then dismantled in the course of less than a month. At the center, Rick coordinated medical, employment, travel, housing and food services for more than 2,000 evacuees living on-site.

Early Public Service in State Government:

Upon his return to Houston, Rick became project manager for Communities in Schools. He also taught for the Houston Independent School District and Houston Community College System before becoming a staffer in the Texas State Senate.
As a staff member, Rick coordinated the passage of the current 911 Poison Control law. He joined Houston Industries, Inc., (now CenterPoint Energy, Inc.) as part of the Governmental Affairs department in November 1993. He became a manager of economic development for CenterPoint Energy after winning the Democratic nomination for State Representative, District 145, in the spring of 1998.


MORE:

http://ricknoriega.com/


Of course Noriega isn't getting much help from the DSCC, but he IS a serious candidate. I wanted to correct the record.

[Vincardog]

11. The DINO TX state Democratic party would work against him.

[Stop Cornyn]

21. That's nonsense! Other than Ortiz's staff's PUMA blog, I know of no Texas Democrats who wouldn't

crawl across coals and broken glass to get Obama elected.

[Vincardog]

22. .

[Stop Cornyn]

26. The Texas State Democratic Party did NOT work AGAINST Van Os. I just failed to support him, and it

failed to support him because it made the judgment (right or wrong) that it didn't have enough money to support heroic but doomed candidacies like Van Os's and also support regional legislative and congressional races that were winnable.

Like you, I would have preferred that the Texas State Democratic Party followed a "254 county strategy" (the statewide equivalent to Dean's "50 state strategy"), but the opposite choice was a decision to improve effectiveness on a very limited budget. It was NOT an effort to defeat Van Os (or Radnofsky or any of our other great and heroic candidates who ran underfunded campaigns in unwinnable races).

[Vincardog]

30. .

[Stop Cornyn]

36. The Texas State Democratic Party is ineffective, not malignant. It's not a cabal sabotaging good

Democratic candidates. It is grossly underfunded, poorly managed, and ineffective, but it is not a sinister cabal with designs on keeping Texas red.

Frankly, the Texas State Democratic Party isn't competent enough to pull off anything so complicated that it could qualify as a cabal.

What you are seeing as a conspiracy is nothing other than the underfunded party encouraging donations into races where the Party thought Democratic candidates had the best chance of winning.

[Vincardog]

38. .

[Stop Cornyn]

44. Who? No Democrat in Texas is even halfway organized (or funded) enough to be a king maker.

[RollWithIt]

81. People said the same thing about the Ohio Democratic Party just 4 years ago.....

So have faith, these things work in cycles sometimes. Someday, the Texas Democratic Party will take back the state. It is only a matter of time.

[tritsofme]

12. LBJ, Nixon, and Reagan showed that huge electoral landslides like that are possible.

But probably not until reelection.

[martymar64]

61. Besides LBJ, the other were Rethugs

Doesn't help your argument.

[tritsofme]

65. And a Republican like Reagan carried NY IL MA ect

Democrats just haven't been lucky enough (with the exception of Bill) to have a popular president to reelect in many years. Hell, Clinton was the first Democrat to win consecutive terms since FDR.

No reason a popular Obama couldn't sweep across the nation and make states like TX competitive in 2012.

[martymar64]

67. TX will never be competitive, NEVER

I know others here will want to murder me for that little statement of fact, but it is what it is.
Of course if you killed every Repug in the state, there might be a chance but the Tom Delay Machine will be here for the next 100 years to steal the election.

[Lisa0825]

85. You are so full of shit.

Texas has gotten closer and could go blue in the next few cycles. In the meantime, we will celebrate any local races we win, and possibly some statewide races as well. It's folks like you who give up on us who make it harder to make progress.

[martymar64]

112. They were sure effective at beating redistricting in the Lege

Money talks, bullshit walks. Come back to me when you beat Goodhair or Cornyn. This is a DEEP RED STATE. The only way ever we'll go blue is if you let all of East Texas and the Panhandle and the Waco and Temple and Midland/Odessa areas secede.

Go to places like Tulia and Jasper and convince them to be Democrats and see how long before they start shooting at you.
As for giving up, what has the Democratic Party done for us in the State in the last 20 years? Really, I want to know. On what issue have they stood firm and won against the Rethugs? No, Lisa, they gave up on helping us here long ago, abandoning us to the onslaught on Bush, Goodhair and Tom Delay. Now, they are doing al ittle better in the polls and they expect us to conveniently forget all bout abandoning us.
No thanks. I'll wait until I see legislative results before I trust them again here.

[rainbow4321]

113. Exactly..in 2006, Dallas County residents FIRED all their repuke judges

And a local repuke pol at the time was in the paper being quoted as saying that the losses could be laid directly at Bush's feet.
One of the Dallas judges spoke at our county convention and said when the Dem judges went to work after the election, they found the former repuke judges' dockets with a year's backlog of cases. WHAT the hell had they been doing?? Not much, apparently. The Dem judges actually WORKED and cut their newly acquired docket lists big time. Amazing what happens when one does the job that they were elected to do. Guess the repuke judges never saw their losses coming so they didn't feel a need to work/do their job!

[LanternWaste]

118. I think it will.

I think it will. I think it's even now in the process of becoming a moderately progressive state.

Even now, I see and hear much more support for Obama than I do for that old, white-haired dude. At the state fair this past weekend, it seemed that every time I turned around, I saw someone wearing an Obama t-shirt or an Obama pin. Didn't see anything at all for the old, white-haired dude.

Both candidates are running TV spots in the north Texas area. Were TX not considered at least partially in play, why run the ads? Why waste the money if it could be better spent elsewhere.


I think you confuse the words 'fact' and 'opinion'...

[martymar64]

13. Doubtful

I live here in Austin and this is the ONLY city that will favor Obama. The rest of the state is Xian Taliban country, full of racists and religious zealots. In Texas they think public education is the work of the devil. It's like Mississippi but much bigger.
I'm not even going to bother to vote because it won't even make a dent. Besides, nothing will change no matter who is in office, the rich will still call the shots for us slaves to jump to.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

14. Not voting is foolish.

[martymar64]

17. Do you live in Texas?

If not, then you don't know what the situation is here. This state is the American equivalent of Nazi Germany. McCain will likely get 70% here. Besides, my vote will not affect anything in terms of how our "government" is run. It'll still be controlled by the oligarchs and the lobbyists that will continue to fuck us like they have since the beginning of time.

Sorry, I'm fresh out of hope. I've lost faith forever .

[raventattoo]

25. Much closer than 70% McCrash

Don't forget that not but roughly 15 years ago we elected Ann Richards (bless her beautiful soul) as our governor. Perry only got 40 something (I think) percent in our last election (granted there were 2 independents along with our democrat running) I think Chris Bell-D got around ? 30%? And I think Bush "only" got about 67% in 2004. McCain will NOT get anywhere near 70%. I am guessing less than 60%.

[martymar64]

27. It's still not even close for us

Still not enough to get me to bother voting.
This state can't even keep Tom Delay in jail for fuck sake! The era and politics of Ann Richards is as dead in this state as she is. It's gone and it ain't ever coming back.

Like I said, I give up.

[WolverineDG]

93. So move already

If you hate Texas so much, why the fuck are you living here? If you don't want to help take the state back, get the fuck out!

dg

[Lisa0825]

122. We'd be much better off if people with defeatist attitudes would just

get the hell out of here. Let those of us who are still willing to do the work continue without the negative crap.

:hi:

[raventattoo]

23. Houston

I live in the inner loop of Houston where we consistently elect democratic mayors and representatives. Large African American population. Many, many Obama yard signs and bumper stickers. Only a scattering/handful of McCrash signs. I LOVE Austin and the demographics there, but Houston will go for Obama even in spite of the suburbs where the vote will probably split.

[martymar64]

28. Ah the optimism of youth!

Go ahead and vote. Maybe after getting kicked in the crotch by your elected officials a few more times, you'll see what I mean.
But more power to you.

[Stop Cornyn]

31. That's not optimism. Houston will go STRONGLY for Obama (so will Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Corpus

McAllen, etc.).

Houston will not be close. Most of the good Democrats who left New Orleans after Katrina have permanently relocated to Houston, and they are registered to vote this election. Houston is is going all blue.

[martymar64]

35. Good for them, unfortunately the rest of the state sucks Bush dick

Now if we can get the rest of the state to go that way, we'd be good, but I don't see that happening in this lifetime.

Besides, I just moved and I can't afford to change my address on my drivers license and thus can't re-register. My voter registration is worthless and it's too late to do anything about it.
I'll cheer from the sidelines although it won't do any good.

[Stop Cornyn]

37. Texas is not nearly as red as that. Obama will break 45% and McCain won't break 50% (Libertarians

in Texas are AT WAR with the Republicans over the mistreatment of Ron Paul at the state convention).

[Erin Elizabeth]

46. Well aren't you just a bucket of sunshine?

Sounds like Travis County dems are better off without your enthusiasm and optimism.

[martymar64]

50. Insult me all you like, it doesn't change anything

Put Tom Delay in prison like they promised to do and then we'll talk.
Otherwise, it's all hot air.
As for optimism, what is there to be optimistic about? We're sliding into a depression, people are being forced onto the street and our soldiers are dying in a foreign land for a lie.
Oh. but we have hope! How is hope going to pay the rent and feed me and my family? How is hope going to solve our financial crisis and bring our soldiers home?

[Chloroplast]

43. Thank you!

I hate hearing that Texans (outside of Austin) are racists; I've witnessed less racism in the South than I have in Chicago! Our state elected Gov. Richards (gosh, I miss her!) and had a viable candidate in Tony Sanchez. Obama will do well in Texas seeing as the GOP is imploding and Bob Barr is making such a racket.

[Erin Elizabeth]

47. Everyone I run into who would normally vote repub but is

wavering because of McGramps, I'm yelling out "BOB BARR!! RON PAUL!!!" ROFL. I've convinced several. I love it. I KNOW they wouldn't go for Obama, so I don't even bother, I just start talking up those third party guys to at least steal some votes from McCain and it's working.

Hah.

[martymar64]

51. Go ask James Byrd Jr. if Texas is racist

Oh wait! You can't ask James because in Japser, TX some crackers dragged him by a rope behind their truck for miles until his head popped off.

Go ask his family if Texas is racist. I dare you.

[Erin Elizabeth]

45. EXACTLY. And thank you!!!

We've worked hard up here in Dallas County and it's been working out very well for us! 2006 kicked ASS for our county. I couldn't even believe what a coup we pulled off with all those Dems challenging incumbent reps and winning!

And my state rep switched a year ago from repub to Dem!

[martymar64]

52. Go try that in Midland/Odessa

or Lubbock or Amarillo or Bryan or Waco or Temple/Killeen or Tulia or Jasper.
You'll get a much different reaction, I guarantee.

[Erin Elizabeth]

55. Well at first you said everything outside of Austin sucked bush's dick.

Glad to see you've modified your original stance and now realize Austin is far from being the only blue part of the state!

[martymar64]

59. I'll concede that but it doesn't change the state as a whole

There are wide swaths of the state that will never go blue. They are too wedded to Jeebus and the Klan to ever change.
Even you have to admit that.

[tammywammy]

91. But there are even wide swaths of California that won't go blue either

Bakersfield for example.

[Stop Cornyn]

121. Most of rural Texas remains Republican, but change from the cities is radiating outward. Even Waco

is going purple.

[Cathryn]

66. I live in Dallas

and I agree with you. I see many more Obama bumper stickers than McCain. I also went to the rally on Feb. 20th and the arena filled to capacity, about 17,000! There were many others outside who could not get in. It was such a wonderful time and everyone was extremely upbeat. There was such a sense of unity hope in the air. I'll never forget it!

[martymar64]

71. Ask JFK how friendly Dallas is

The old guard is still there.

[salonghorn70]

73. This Remark Is Totally Uncalled For

Dallas welcomed Kennedy beyond anyone's expectations. To say that Oswald was typical of the people of Dallas, shows very little understanding of 1963.

[martymar64]

76. Oswald didn't kill him, it was a setup by Charles Cabell, the Chief of Police

My family lived in Dallas in 63.
Oswald was a patsy just like he said.
The men behind the plot were Hunt Bros, Clint Murchison, John Connally, LBJ and Jack Ruby.

For that reason, I will never set foot in Dallas. If I have to go north, I'll go through Ft Worth instead. No exceptions. Dallas is dead to me.
as far as I am concerned. There is Austin and then there is the rest of the state. If I ever leave Austin, I leave Texas.

[salonghorn70]

77. Your Reply Is Just Breathtaking

I won't even get into it. Try Dallas. Especially on October 12 when my beloved Longhorns beat the Hell outta ou. On that day Dallas will be the most wonderful place on earth. :hi:

[martymar64]

78. Sorry, can't do it.

I vowed to never go back and I'm not going to break that vow. Besides, I'm not a football fan anymore, I'm an atheist (a virtual death sentence in Big D) and I don't know anybody in Dallas. Where would I buy weed? Do they even have weed there?
Nope, Austin is just fine by me. It's the only city here like my other hometown, Seattle.

Instead, come on down to Austin. The people are friendly and I'll smoke you out!

[Erin Elizabeth]

83. Oh please. The Metroplex Atheists would disagree with

you on that.

I was born in 1970, in Dallas. So I'm not going to base my entire opinion and experience of a city based on one event that occurred seven years before I was born.

If it makes you feel better to tell yourself we're all up here sucking Bush's dick, then hey whatever you have to do. But if you think Austin is the only place with weed, atheists, and Democrats, you are laughably mistaken. Hell, weed is *everywhere.* LOL.

And there are a lot of good Democrats doing a lot of good work all over the state, but especially in counties like mine.

Definitely you should stay in Austin. That chip on your shoulder must weigh fifty pounds.

[tammywammy]

87. I was there at that rally!

:)

[LanternWaste]

119. Well, this middle aged Texas will vote.

Well, this middle aged Texas will vote. And vote with hope. And work for change.

TX, like the rest of the county is politically cyclical, and many points of contemporary evidence point towards a return to Ann Richards-style TX populism.

However, if you feel self-validated by shooting down the approach, and the work of other TX democrats, both voters and politicians, feel free-- the only consequence will be on your head, no one else's.

Just don't expect all of us to allow you a whole lot of credibility on the issue


And more power to you too, chief :)

[Erin Elizabeth]

42. You don't know what you're talking about.

And stop being so fucking insulting. Up here in Dallas County, we're as blue as can be. Our county Dem party fucking rocks. Even Tarrant County is leaning toward the blue column (that's Ft. Worth). Harris County (Houston) has been blue for a few election cycles now. The counties down in the valley have been blue for a long time and the counties that border Louisiana tend to be blue, along with Bexar Co (San Antonio) and El Paso County.

So what's that about the rest of the state being "Xian Taliban country?"

Austin is NOT the only blue area of Texas.

Oh and smart move not even voting, Einstein. :eyes:

[martymar64]

54. And insulting me will convince me?

When Texas ditches Goodhair and Cornyn and Hutchison and puts Tom Delay in prison where he belongs, then we'll talk.
Until then, go peddle your"hope and change" happy talk elsewhere.

[Erin Elizabeth]

57. ,,,,,(self deleted)

WHEN Texas goes blue, it will not be due to any effort on your part, but in spite of people like you.

[martymar64]

60. Ah, again with the insults.

I guess you have no good case, so you resort to ad hominems.
Bully for you!

[LanternWaste]

120. No more, nor no less...

"And insulting me will convince me?"

No more, nor no less that you insulting many other people will convince them. Six of one, half a dozen of the other...

[rainbow4321]

53. I'm sure Dallas County would get a good laugh at your comment

seeing as how in 2004 Dallas County was 49% FOR Kerry. Yes, the county went 49% BLUE.
The excitement over Obama running is a zillion times more than it was for Kerry. I cannot even describe the turnout for the voter registration drives that I have been to, and these kind of drives are going on in every corner in TX.
My county has gone 70-30 repuke in 2000 and 2008. The turnout in the 2004 Dem primary was 5,000 Dems voting. This year?? *****70,000***** Dems voted in my county just for the primary. 70,000. Lots of us spent a good three hours at our Dem Caucus sites cuz the sites were so packed.

My county's Dem convention had to be moved to another facility and another day because instead of previous convention totals of 400 attendees, we had reports of 3500 in attendence. Remember reports of a TX county's convention lasting ******24 hours****?? That was our county. Collin County's Dem convention opened Sunday morning and ended MONDAY morning at 7 am. I went as an observer, not a delegate and left around 5 pm. Found out on my way to work the next morning that they just ended at 7 am. Pretty much caused me to spew my diet coke all over the steering wheel. This was, after all, Collin County, a place where repukes have ruled forever (70-30. as I said). WHERE did all these Dems come from??


Our drives in this county have since then have registered 23,000 voters. JUST my county. In Tarrant County the total since primary day is 40,000. I can only imagine what totals Dallas County has.
Will TX go blue?? Who knows. It is a shitload **paler** red than other years, if nothing else. Maybe even purple.

So think of all of my county Dem stats from the last 6 months the next time you say the rest of TX is a lost cause. It's insulting to all of us who have spent the last several weekends out doing blockwalks and voter registration drives. And it is really insulting to all the people who have come to our registration tables to sign up...the crowds signing up are NOT doing so because of McCain.

The local repukes are SCARED. I volunteered at my city's festival (voter registration booth) a few weeks ago and we had 2 old goons wearing Sarah Palin polo shirts stalking us. Standing across the walkway just staring at us and mumbling to each other with their arms crossed as we stood with a full tent of people wanting to register. BTW, outside the tent was a life size cardboard cut out of Obama with a sign above it that said "voter registration". Again, all of this is my repuke red county. The local repukes seem to be a little worried, enough to send these 2 guys over to watch us. Guess their tent was a little empty so they had to find SOMEthing to keep them busy.

[martymar64]

58. 49% ain't winning

When Goodhair , Cornyn, Hutchison and Delay are gone for good, then I'll believe you.
I'm originally from Dallas but I haven't been there in 30 years and I'll never go back because of what they did to JFK.
To me it'll always be a right wing cesspool.

[ccharles000]

94. Have hope.

I live in North Carolina and we turn more blue every year.

[crispini]

108. 42 out of 42 Democrats running in Dallas county in 2006 were elected

including our most excellent new DA, Craig Watkins.

Now THAT's winning.

[Cathryn]

69. I love to hear that!

[Cathryn]

70. I love to hear that!

I live in Dallas Co. and I have day dreams about Texas going to Obama! I'm not holding my breath but there is that HOPE, you know?
Thank you for all your hard work and dedication. I love the idea of Collin Co., of all places, having a swell of democratic voters. That area is all McMansions, SUVs and soccer moms!

[rainbow4321]

79. Hey, neighbor!!!

Oh let me tell you, on Nov 5th I will go drive amongst those SUV's and right past those McMansions over in **West Plano** with my little Chevy Tracker with windows which will be covered with "President Obama"..I don't care if TX stays red, goes pink/purple, or light baby blue!!

I may even have to take a trip down to chimpass' soon to be neighborhood in Highland Park. Taking off work on Nov 4th to volunteer doing whatever and then the 5th so I can stay up late as I want, watch results come in, and celebrate. So I will have lots of extra time on my hands on the 5th...I'm sure I can think of plenty of more ways to piss off the sulking local repukes!

[Left Is Write]

96. Make your voice heard. I live in Idaho, for cripes sake, and I vote for Democrats!

Idaho is the second reddest state in the nation, and our votes for Democrats are just as important as ever, if not more so.

Please...vote!

[MagickMuffin]

97. Again You are so FULL of Shit

Shame on you for comparing me to the xian Taliban. I'm NOT a religious zealot or racist.

And unlike you I WILL be voting in November. With that attitude like yours no wonder our state is red. When people refuse to vote they are part of the problem, not the solution. Shame on you for NOT bothering to Vote.:spank:

In Tarrant County we have registered 90,000 new voters. And we are not finished yet.

[nene1985]

103. Not just Austin

Dallas County will go for him, there hasn't been a republican in charge of Dallas in years. All of our last few mayors have been democrats.

[TheFarseer]

117. are you crazy? only Austin will favor Obama?

Houston will for sure and probably DFW and Beumont.

[RagAss]

15. He shouldn't waste 1 second of his time there.

[Occam Bandage]

16. TX was probably not winnable this year, but I think we'll see it moving in the right direction.

[budkin]

18. No but he'll come close... Texas is shifting back to purple

[grantcart]

19. I think they decided to take on one really big red state that would cost a lot of money

and decided that Florida was a better bet.

[Marsala]

116. Though Florida isn't a true red state

It's a purple state that was thought to be turning increasingly red, but perhaps not since it now seems to be more winnable than Ohio.

[bermudat]

20. No

[blogslut]

24. Do you mean, could he have won the primary?

He won the most delegates.

As for the GE. Call me a dreamer but yes, I think he can take Texas. I'll call up my favorite numbers again:

2004 Democratic primary - 839,231 voters

2008 Democratic primary - 2,874,986 voters

In the 2008 Republican primary, Johnny McSame got 51.21% of the vote, whereas Mike Huckabee got 38.02%. There is no great love for Johnny McSame in the Lone Star State.

In the 2004 general election, 2,832,704 Texans voted for Kerry/Edwards. More Texans voted in this year's Democratic primary than they did for the actual 2004 general election.

Yes, Obama can take Texas. Yes he can.

[Bucky]

29. Texas will flip blue after Kentucky has.

McCain would have to kill a 90 year old nun on live TV and then tap dance on her corpse for Obama to even break 45% here.

[Stop Cornyn]

32. No. 2010 will be a sea change for Texas. By 2012 it will be more blue than purple. It's demographic

[Bucky]

72. Wish it were so. Sadly, this year will be a high water mark year for us.

I'm glad that McCain may have to expend dollars in some of our expensive media markets, but I just can't see Dems sustaining their current expansion rate. Keep in mind that most of our demographic diversity reflects immigration from outside the US--we're browner than before, but our voters aren't quite so much.

When I was a kid all the Dems who were teaching me how to organize in Houston talked about how much more liberal the state would be because of all the people moving down here from Ohio and Michigan. These same "new Texans" voted in Bill Clements twice and then nearly elected Claytie Williams until he started making rape jokes.

Twenty years from now we'll look back on this moment and see how silly it is to assume that brown=Democrat.

[Erin Elizabeth]

48. I'm bookmarking this thread because of this comment.

I guarantee you Texas will go blue before Kentucky. (Think about our changing population.)

[weezie1317]

33. Maybe, but it's unlikely and would have cost him resources in other states like VA, FL and NC

[MagickMuffin]

34. YES, but he has LOTS of Support here working on his behalf

AND WE ARE WORKING HARD. Tarrant Obama is one of the hardest working groups in Texas. We have registered 40,000 voters and we still have until Oct. 6.


Check out my post: **This just in: *800* people showed up for our Debate Watch Party Friday** pics included

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7259178&mesg_id=7259178

[Erin Elizabeth]

49. GO TARRANT COUNTY!! GO TARRANT COUNTY!!

It's your birthday!!!

WHOOOOO!!!!! From your next door neighbor with DALLAS COUNTY DEMS!!!

:party:

Your pics are AWESOME! I love Tarrant County Dems. I want to see Tarrant Co go blue soon like its neighbor.

[rainbow4321]

84. Yay for Tarrant County!!

There was a debate party at a local sports bar up here in Collin County and 180+ people went! We packed the restaurant!! Think there were other watch parties going on but I picked that one early on and just stayed with it.
Hey, a voter drive I helped at this past weekend outside of a local supercenter signed up 185 people (new voters and not so new voters who have just moved here and needed to re-register here). In 7 hours. It was one of many drives happening--lots of them to pick from each weekend to help at!

[Erin Elizabeth]

39. Texas WILL flip to blue, it's not even totally red now.

It's just going to take a few more election cycles.

In the last few election cycles, ALL of the urban areas have gone blue. In 2006, 90% of all the Dallas county judges who were up for re-election were Repubs. EVERY SINGLE ONE except one lost to their Dem challenger! And the whole of Dallas county went blue. My state rep switched to the Dem party partially for that reason (that's not his publically given reason, though).

There's this little county in the middle of southeastern Texas, Robertson Co, I believe, that is blue as the sky, surrounded by red counties. It's not urban, it's just as rural as its neighboring counties, but the Dem party there is strong, solidified, and motivated and they do whatever they have to do to get the Dem vote out. It works, cycle after cycle. Other rural counties are starting to copy that game plan.

It'll take a bit longer, but remember Dems ruled Texas for something like 40-50 years. It'll go back Dem again. With our population changing, it's just a matter of time.

[crispini]

109. Actually, ALL the judges won

They get that wrong in the media sometimes, but our last guy made it by just a few votes. That was Judge Canas, if I remember correctly. 42/42 for Dallas County in 06!

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

41. Yes. Yes. Yes. COULD Obama have won Texas? Definitely. If he picked Richardson as his VP and if he

spent a fortune here and if he campaigned here like he's been campaigning in the hardest fought swing states, Obama could have eeked out a tiny victory with the help of a large pissed off anti-McCain vote for usually-Republican-leaning Libertarians who will vote Barr this year (especially in Ron Paul's congressional district).

Instead, Obama focused on Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, etc. rather than focusing on Texas. As a result, Obama won't win Texas, but he will do pretty well, and I am willing to bet that we see a statewide Democrat elected in Texas in 2008 -- for the first time in forever!

[CreekDog]

56. If it happened in the past he could have

You can just smack me now. :hide:

[tandem5]

62. OP is from the future

I thought that was clear - isn't your face red now?

[brazos121200]

63. Texas went over to the dark side a long time ago. Time was

Texas was one of the most moderate of southern states, electing several moderate Democrats to Senate and the Governors office. Kennedy, Johnson, Humphrey, even Jimmy Carter carried Texas in the Presidential elections in the 60s and 70s. But when the repubs targeted Texas to be the the crown jewel in their excess of evil southern streategy, Texas by the 80s became the flying monkey right capital of the world.

Texas is unwinnable for any Democrat and has been for many years. The big cities, which in most states are Democratic strongholds, tend in Texas to vote as conservative, or nearly so, as the rural counties. Even Bill Clinton, with the Repub vote split between Bush and Perot, two Texans, could only come within four points of winning.

Its dark here, really dark red, with no sign of enlightenment emerging in the electorate anytime soon.

[Erin Elizabeth]

64. What? Your comment about the big cities is just wrong.

You need to look at a more recent election cycle map by county of this state.

Look at 2006.

[brazos121200]

68. I wasn't aware of the 2006 election results, but I am talking

about presidential election results. In 2004 Kerry/Edwards carried only Tarrant county (Austin) and El Paso. San Antonio, Dallas, Ft. Worth, Houston all went for Bush/Satan.

[MagickMuffin]

101. Travis County is Austin's county seat: Tarrant County is Fort Worth's county seat

I thought I should correct the info.

[crispini]

105. Bullshit, Dallas (city of) voted for Kerry

And we took the county in 2006.

[rainbow4321]

80. Is it just me, or is this thread getting full of posters

HOPING to spread doom and gloom about TX?? Almost as if someone, somewhere maybe got a little encouraging news/turnout/stats about us, and now we are getting flooded with the opposition to keep Texans thinking they need to just give up.

Hmmmm.

Oh, wanted to share this: It is hard as hell to find any polling websites shared on DU that take time to include TX. At all. Only one with a poll is RCP which has numbers: 10.8 spread (38-48.8). Given that it shows chimp's history as having a 20 point lead in 2000 and 2004, this is good news. Heaven forbid we get poll results for TX..never mind GOOD results about TX. Guess we will find out TX's fate soon enough.

[tammywammy]

92. I've helped register people to vote

Strong dems that are definitely voting for Obama. A couple of co-workers are going to go vote early with me. :)

[Donald Ian Rankin]

74. Is a bear Catholic? Does the pope shit in the woods?

From the moment McCain picked Palin, and almost certainly before that, there was no realistic chance of Obama carrying Texas.

[salonghorn70]

75. No

Maybe some percentage points higher with either Clinton or Richardson. Either choice would have electrified the Hispanic community. As it stands now, McCain 51, Obama 44, Libertarian 3, Other 2.

[rainbow4321]

82. And a SEVEN point difference is bad?????

To hear some people here, there should be/is a 60 point difference.

This is good, not BAD. Wonder how many newly registered TX voters are slipping thru the cracks of these polls??

[usregimechange]

86. Dems can compete there in 2012.

[PerfectSage]

88. I think a popular democratic ex governor from Texas running for Prez as a democrat could.

It would be the easiest way to flip it.

[WolverineDG]

89. If enough GOPers stay home or vote Lib

he could win it. :woohoo:

dg

[tammywammy]

90. No, Texas won't go "blue" this cycle

In 2010 the democrats will be more effective in state elections and definitely very purple for 2012.



and a w00t for Rick Noriega for Senate!!!

[Condem]

98. Not a fucking chance.

Absurd to even think so.

[Liberal Mommy]

99. Don't give up on Texas!

I'm voting and I talked my fiancee into voting for the first time in his life. I live just North of Austin, in the suburbs. I'm educating my children about voting, so that is three more Democratic votes down the road...

[optimisticin08]

100. TEXAS will go for us

in 2016!! its trending our way.

[last_texas_dem]

102. No

But it will be progress from the '00 and '04 outcomes if Obama only loses by a single-digit margin, which I think could possibly happen.

[PerfectSage]

104. Obama has spent 8 million on advertizing in Texas

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/

Only PA,FL,OH and IA hve had more ad spending than Texas. Probably most was spent on the Texas primary?

[crispini]

106. All, I would guess. I haven't seen much since then. nt

[BlooInBloo]

107. Who cares?

[crispini]

110. Realistically, no, but the state is going the right way. nt

[Honeycombe8]

111. It used to be blue. Gov. Ann Richards was a Dem. A great broad, as they say.

But as a Texas resident, I'd have to say it'll be a loooooong time before the state votes for a Dem. Prez. Although there are many Dems here, the far right has a strong foothold here, and they vote more reliably than the Dems. Also, re Obama...don't forget that southeastern TX is home to the KKK headquarters and where those white guys dragged that Af. American man behind a truck in the late 1990's (and beheaded him in the process).

[tekisui]

114. I think he can in 2012!

[PVnRT]

115. No, but I think he could have made it close (within 5% or so)

That in itself would be a kind of victory. The GOP would go nuts if they had to defend Texas.