So how much of a bump for GOP? 10, 15, 20?

[quinnox]

I am expecting to see at least 15 points bounce for Bush in this convention, maybe 20 points, and at a MINIMUM 10 points. Further, I see Bush taking the lead in California and New York following this convention.

It's clear this convention is the best in modern political history, and the most effective in the last hundred years.

[FlaIndie]

1. [/sarcasm] n/t

[ElsewheresDaughter]

2. i read the GOP lost 3 points since the convention started

[David Dunham]

3. I am big Kerry guy, but I will say 10-15% bounce

Kerry failed to run ads to keep down Bush's favorability.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. Does this mean that we have lost the election?

[David Dunham]

22. No. But we have a long way to climb back if we are to win.

[Comicstripper]

31. GRRRR

Kerry froze his spending til the GOP convention so he and Bush would start at the same pace (you cant fundraise after your party's convention). in fact, in his second-best campaign move yet, kerry purchased $50 million of ads in 20 swing states over the next 2 months. this is more than half of his cash, and it is unprecedented.
it'll be great.
believe me, midnight tonight, kerry's gloves come off.

[kerryin2004]

4. With the Shrub's great oracle skills...

Anything less then 15 is a failure for the whole convention..

[seabeyond]

12. they wrapped it up, didnt you hear, was leaked, by accident

but by last nite, that is it

[Dudley_DUright]

6. Raising expectations a little,

are we? Let's go hog wild and say that Bush will have a 100% approval rating just after the convention, just like Joe Stalin.

[yardwork]

7. ROTFL!!

Yep.

[Kadie]

8. You are way off.

It is going to be a clean sweep for bushie, just you watch. First time in this country only one person running for president gets all the votes.

Bwahahahahaha

[annxburns]

9. I will guess 8 points

He will lead, oh say 54 percent to 46 percent.

Anything less than that and he is in real trouble.

[seabeyond]

10. i am predictin 18-20

on good source

and i hear as you, after arnie calif went to the dark side

[0rganism]

Anything less than 15 is a good sign for Kerry

and I really doubt bush is going to get 15 points out of this fiasco.

[Zen Democrat]

11. Definitely see him getting Saddam numbers. Unanimous.

[tridim]

13. I think he'll have 99% approval after tonight

Just like his pal Saddam.

[Fed Up]

14. Latest NY poll, bad news for us. Bush 58%, Kerry 23% Nader 18%.

This convention is clearly the GOP's best since 1980. That depresses me. I knew they were going to pull this off.

[seabeyond]

16. oh my, just a huge oh my.....that is horrible

i am going to just hang myself now

[TexasSissy]

19. Alert, fellow DUers.

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hong Kong Cavalier]

23. Um...you got a link for that?

Or did you weave that web with silly string?

[librechik]

25. I hear the new zogby has Bush up by 8

that's a blow!

:evilgrin:

[TexasSissy]

29. That's normal. What the Mike poster says---abnormal. And a lie.

[librechik]

37. tex

I gotta let you in on a little secret

you are being majorly punkd

we are all pulling your leg--we're trying to set up an expectation that if Bushies polls are less than 15 or 20 (like previous incumbents) then he will have REALLY tanked.

see?

[Teaser]

36. Where do you hear this?

Please?

[librechik]

38. see post 36 n/t

[Teaser]

40. I been punked

Damn...don't do that! My heart can't stand it.
:)

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

15. Im saying 4 to 8 points, more likely 4 thru 6.

But the rest...doubtful. This isnt nearly as good as the '92 Democratic Convention, which was great...one of the best.

[TexasSissy]

17. I'd guess 7 to 10 pts., since the country is so firmly divided.

There isn't 20% in the country to swing his way, in the first place. Almost half the country is firmly footed with the Dems. Almost half the country is firmly footed with the Repubs. There's maybe 10 to 15% play in the middle. I would be worried if he got a bounce over 10%.

[NewJeffCT]

18. anything less than 15% is disaster for Bush

keep repeating it... hopefully, it will sink in.

[ItsMyParty]

24. Bob Barr (Repub) said not much because only the faithful are

watching; people are set into who they will vote for; not that many swing votes left up for grabs.

[Bullshot]

26. If the race is as tight and polarized as they say,

there are not enough swing voters to give Bush that much of a bounce.

[irancontra]

27. i'd bet he gets no bounce.

NO BOUNCE. NO FUCKIN BOUNCE. Know why? Cause Kerry will be layin the smackdown after an out-of-touch BUsh delivers a tired generalized speech AND tomorrow the new economic figures come out & it doesn't sound good either. NO BOUNCE ROVE.

[Window]

30. He can't bounce his monkey ass back to Crawford fast enough for me.

.

[tom22]

28. Zero

The Wall St. J. today quoted an unnamed Bush insider as saying "It'sd the same race it was in March. It's tied". The convention was red meat for the true believers. Rove wants to turn out the base. he has given up trying to persuade anyone. I believe Kerry will answer every question and throw punch for punch. If not we deserve to lose.

[Rowdyboy]

32. After Zell hit his his home run last night, anything less than a 20 point

bounce would indicate that Bush failed in his acceptance speech.

[Chomskyite]

33. Maybe 5

. . . but no more than that. There are FEW undecideds and this was a convention that did little other than shore up the base.

[sampsonblk]

34. Effective? We shall see. I say 5-8pts

If its any more than that, this board will self-destruct.

[sampsonblk]

35. There's still a chance Shrub will say something STUPID!

Don't misunderestimate that possibility.

Q: Where are the "flip-flop" ads featuring Bush saying we can't win the war, but we are winning now and will never quit until we prevail?

[Must_B_Free]

39. 5 point drop is my guess...