New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a Tossup

[ccharles000]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/new-york-times-doesnt-think-north.html

Or Indiana, or Missouri. Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny write today that:


Just six states representing 78 electoral votes — Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia — are tossups.
Here are the last seven public polls of North Carolina.

10/1, Obama +0.1 (Elon)
9/30, Obama +3 (Rasmussen)
9/28, Obama +2 (PPP)
9/28, McCain +3 (ARG)
9/23, Obama +2 (Rasmussen)
9/19, tie (Civitas)
9/18, tie (PPP)

Colorado is called a battleground. Here are the last eight public polls there:

9/28 Obama +1 (Rasumssen)
9/24 McCain +3 (ARG)
9/23 Obama +3 (Rasmussen)
9/23 Obama +9 (Insider Advantage)
9/22 Obama +4 (CNN)
9/21 Obama +7 (PPP)
9/21 Obama +1 (Ciruli)
9/18 Obama +4 (Quinnipiac)

But by comparison Indiana is not called a battleground. Here are its last seven public polls:

9/29 McCain +3 (SurveyUSA)
9/29 McCain +1 (Research 2000)
9/18 McCain +2 (Rasmussen)
9/16 McCain +3.5 (Big Ten)
9/16 McCain +3 (ARG)
9/15 Obama +3 (Selzer)
9/15 McCain +5 (CNN)

New Hampshire is called a battleground:

10/1 Obama +10 (Rasmussen)
9/28 Obama +12 (SRBI)
9/23 Obama +1 (Strategic Vision)
9/23 Obama +4 (Research 2000)
9/23 McCain +2 (Rasmussen)
9/23 Obama +1 (Suffolk)
9/19 Obama +3 (Marist)
9/18 McCain +2 (UNH)

But Missouri is not, during the same time period:

9/29 Obama +1 (CNN)
9/24 McCain +2 (SurveyUSA)
9/23 McCain +1 (Research 2000)
9/17 McCain +4 (Research 2000)

Here’s Florida:

9/30 Obama +3 (Insider Advantage)
9/29 Obama +8 (CNN)
9/29 Obama +4 (Suffolk)
9/28 Obama +3 (PPP)
9/28 Obama +8 (Quinnipiac)
9/28 McCain +1 (SurveyUSA)
9/28 tie (Rasmussen)
9/24 McCain +1 (Rasmussen)
9/24 Obama +6 (Quinnipiac)
9/24 Obama +1 (ARG)
9/22 McCain +3 (Strategic Vision)

Here's Ohio:

9/30 Obama +6 (GQR)
9/29 McCain +1 (SurveyUSA)
9/29 Obama +2 (InsiderAdvantage)
9/28 Obama +8 (Quinnipiac)
9/28 McCain +1 (Rasmussen)
9/24 McCain +1 (Rasmussen)
9/24 Obama +7 (Quinnipiac)

Here's Nevada:

10/2 Obama +4 (Rasmussen)
9/30 Obama +1 (InsiderAdvantage)
9/29 Obama +5 (CNN)
9/28 McCain +2 (ARG)
9/19 McCain +0.5 (Suffolk)
9/17 Obama +2 (Project NewWest)

Here's Virginia:

9/30 McCain +3 (Mason-Dixon)
9/29 Obama +10 (CNN)
9/29 Obama +6 (InsiderAdvantage)
9/28 Obama +3 (Rasmussen)
9/28 McCain +3 (ARG)
9/25 Obama +5 (Rasmussen)
9/21 McCain +2 (Rasmussen)
9/20 Obama +6 (SurveyUSA)
9/20 Obama +8 (ABC/Post)
9/20 McCain +3 (Mason-Dixon)

Why does the New York Times call Colorado and New Hampshire battlegrounds while Indiana and Missouri and North Carolina are not?

[msallied]

1. I think because

those states have pretty much always been red. Battleground states are also known as swing states. It will take more than one election cycle to change that, I think.

[BrklynLiberal]

2. I remember Adam Nagourney being up near the top of the list of Kerry bashers.

I think their determination of "battlegrounds" is totally arbitrary. They have to keep it close in order to sell papers.

[Kolesar]

3. Your post is not saying that the NY Times writers dont acknowledge how well Obama is doing

[bluestateguy]

4. Ah yes, Adam Nagourney, belle of the Upper East Side cocktail party circuit

n t

[PetrusMonsFormicarum]

5. Hearing the same

from my folks in Western NC, both active in the campaign. Voter registration is up, especially among minorities and youth, but the single-issue voters (Reproductive rights, Anti-immigration, Gun rights, Faith vs. logic, straight-up KKK, etc.) will not be swayed.

Polls matter little, though. The only poll that really counts is the election itself.

[book_worm]

6. The fact that one month before the election Obama is campaiging in NC suggests that it is indeed a

toss up.