CBS News National Poll-Obama-48%-Mccain-45%

[Politics_Guy25]

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08a-ALL.pdf

:shrug:

Glad it's an outlier. Only 1 other poll shows the race this close.

[Higher Standard]

1. What's their methodology?

Most other polls are pretty consistently showing a 6-8 point lead for Obama, so it's weird that this one would only show a 3 point lead.

[Politics_Guy25]

4. It's as follows

UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Total Respondents 957
Registered Voters 875 821
Republicans – Reg. Voters 248 233
Democrats – Reg. Voters 320 311
Independents – Reg. Voters 307 277
Effective Likely Voters 616

[FreeState]

5. Here it is

Total Respondents 957

UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Registered Voters: 875 821

Republicans – Reg. Voters 248 233
Democrats – Reg. Voters 320 311
Independents – Reg. Voters 307 277

Effective Likely Voters 616


---so weighted is

D 37.8%
R 28.3%
I 33.7%

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. I'll take it

I think it shows McCain at the high end of his range and Obama at the low end of his range. It is annoying that the last CBS poll had a 9 point spread, but this diverges so far from all other current polls that it seems at least like a pull at both ranges. The RV category has it O 48% and Mc 44%, for a 4point spread (down from 49%-40%, so it's practically no erosion of Obama's position). It's not as fun as the others, but this is not a bad poll at all. I think McCain is between 41 and 45%, and Obama is between 48 and 52%. That's probably about where it stands.

[Sodan]

3. Democracy Corps (D) +3 too - all other polls show 6-8

[GrizzlyMan]

6. Seems like they're oversampling indepedents n/t

[kennetha]

7. Even if it is an outlier

I don't like it. Puts a little interruption in the narrative of a developing landslide. With that narrative we would start to see a bandwagon effect. Don't at all like the narrative of a close race.

[Politics_Guy25]

8. Yep to be honest

You said exactly what I was thinking but didn't want to post. This poll freaked me out but the state polls and other national polls calmed me somewhat.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

9. Look at the state polls!

In all states that matter, Obama is in a great position! His EV advantage is huge, and is solid (he doesn't depend on a couple of states, McPalin needs to flip like 8 states to win at this point). A 3 point lead nationally is inconsistent with dozens upon dozens of state polls, or it simply means McPalin is winning by huge margins in the few red states left.