It's less than a month before the election, post your electoral map predictions

[charlie and algernon]

Edit: thought I should post the link to the DailyKos predictor site http://images.dailykos.com/map/scoreboardc.html

[Kerrytravelers]

1. Obama is close in Indiana. I'm wondering if we can't grab that one, too.

[charlie and algernon]

4. it's possible, but Obama hasn't lead there consistantly since August

It'll be VERY close I think, could go either way.

[MadBadger]

2. Right now I have Obama up 353-174 with Missouri being a straight up tossup

[Myrina]

3. Don't have a prediction but spent the day in the car with a GOP'er ...

... and a staunch one at that. Said that he doesn't - and never has - liked McLame, and can't for the life of him figure out how he got the nomination, and that he is fairly certain Obama has this one locked up.


:bounce: WOO!

[charlie and algernon]

7. good. not that I would ever advocate not voting

but it would certianly help if a lot of conservatives stayed home because they figure mccain has no chance anyway.

[DCBob]

5. Obama 375 McCain 163

[mvd]

11. I still might give Indiana to Obama

I'm waiting for some more polls.

[abburdlen]

21. I think Indiana will not be in play by next week

read stuff like this at 538 make me feel confident.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-bloomington-indiana.html

[blue_onyx]

18. This is my prediction too

[jberryhill]

6. Kalmidor and Northrend are a LOCK:

[PerfectSage]

8. BE GREEDY.

[elkston]

9. Obama - 286, McCain - 252 - VERY conservative estimate

This one has us winning VA, IA, CO, NM + the "Kerry States".

We lose OH, NV, FL, MO, IN, NC in *very* close races. I know that with the current polls, we could quite handily win several of these tossup states. But I am just devising a worst case scenario where we get HUGE Bradley-Effect, lower than expected turnout, and fired-up racists.

Remember, then, that even in the WORST cases we have plenty of options to win.


A slightly more hopeful scenario:


Kerry States + FL, VA, IA, CO, NM, NV. Something just tells me Ohio is going to wimp out and go "Appalachia".

[mvd]

10. Here's how I have it

Unless we put effort into WV, I think we fall short. Add 1 Obama EV for the Nebraska district:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-votemap,0,2338623.htmlstory?usergen=110100010111111011111010111110110011001001000000110

[Stagecoach]

12. Looks good

I see Obama winning along the coast-lines & all of New England, and the great lakes region. McCain will take the usual 3 to 5 electoral vote GOP heartland states (from North Dakota straight down) and most of the southern states.

[JohnnyCougar]

13. Here is mine:

Yes, we get Georgia. Turnout is going to astound people just like it did in the primaries.

[abburdlen]

14. Slivers of red in a sea of blue

And before you ask, I'm not smoking anything. In fact this might be a bit conservative - Obama has a real shot at Texas.

There are a few reasons it's worse than it already appears for McCain.
First, McCain had been trying for the 'strong, dependable leader' image early on. A faltering campaign destroys that image. Those looking for the protective father figure will reasonably ask if he can't win an election, how can he win the war? Those people still might not vote for Obama, but many won't put in an effort to get to the polls.

Second, It's obvious camp McCain does not work well under pressure. What are the odds McCain is going to lose it in front of a camera? Better than his odds of winning Virgina. The infighting and finger pointing within the campaign is already making into newspapers in the next weeks it will be one of the headlines.

Third, the few that are still on the fence are going to go to the side that's winning. That's just human nature.

Finally, The Obama ground game, which many of us are a part of, is good. The people who often don't get called by pollsters are getting calls from the Obama team. We will see historic turn-out. That plus all the newly registered Dem and general toxic environment for Republicans this cycle means landslide for Democrats this year.

(usual caveats, Don't get complacent, work like the fate of the nation depends on winning this election because it really does) :)

[Stop Cornyn]

16. I think that's certainly possible, but I think Obama has a better chance in Texas than in Lousiana

That's the only quibble I have with your map. I think there is certainly a 1 in 6 chance Obama wins Texas.

[abburdlen]

19. if its a choice between the two

I'd prefer Texas but let try for both!

[Frank Booth]

15. Way too early. I'm still expecting it to be close, but it could be a landslide for Obama.

I can't really imagine a landslide for McCain, but it's still possible he'll run the table on FL, OH, VA, CO, NC, NV.

[galactical]

17. He wins

I'd play it safe and say that Obama wins all Kerry States + Colorado + New Mexico. Putting him at 273.

Otherwise, I don't see him winning Indiana or Missouri. But Obama wins, NC, VA, NV, CO, NM, OH and FL.

[krawhitham]

20. 375-163

[frickaline]

22. ...

A microcosm of the US!

[tedoll78]

23. Hmm.. pretty conservative.

Probably a bit low, but it feels so good knowing that we have so many paths to 270. :D

[abumbyanyothername]

24. Well call me a pie-eyed optimist

But I am going 445-93.

Including TX, AZ, MT, GA and ND in the Barack column as Barackomania sweeps the nation, and the other side looks more and more ridiculous trying to dig themselves out.

I would post the map if I could figure out how to upload a jpeg photo into one of these posts.