What were the polls saying on or about 10/6/04??????

[Honeycombe8]

I looked up some polls for 2004 to see where Bush-Kerry were on or about this date in 2004. Here's what I found (spoiler----Bush was ahead in almost all of them):

http://pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm

Poll---Bush----Kerry
Time 10/7 47 46
GWU Battleground 10/7 49 46
ICR 10/5 51 46
American Research Group 10/4 46 47
FOX/Opinion Dynamics 10/4 48 45


NBC/WSJ TRIAL HEATS (my notes written at the time in 2004):
September (Sept.17-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
Mid October (Oct.16-18): Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=877
Bush....46
Kerry...44
Undecided...8

CNN's poll of polls - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/poll.polls.html

Pre-Oct. 8th debate: Bush 48, Kerry 46
Pre-Oct. 13th debate: Bush 47, Kerry 46


I don't know about you, but this SURE brightens my day, in comparison with today's McCrypt-Obama polls, don'tcha know, youbetcha (wink wink ;-) ):

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
POLL....McCRYPT.....OBAMA
NBC/Wall Street Journal 10/4-5 43 49
CBS 10/3-5 45 48
CNN/Opinion Research 10/3-5 45 53

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html:
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/30 - 10/05 -- 49.8 43.6 Obama +6.2
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6
CBS News 10/03 - 10/05 616 LV 48 45 Obama +3
CNN 10/03 - 10/05 694 LV 53 45 Obama +8
Gallup Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 2744 RV 50 42 Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 3000 LV 52 44 Obama +8
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/03 - 10/05 909 LV 47 41 Obama +6
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 - 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/30 - 10/05 800 LV 50 43 Obama +7

[Catch22Dem]

1. Here's an electoral map from 10/6/04

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct06.html

[Honeycombe8]

8. Not anymore. heh heh heh heh. Where're we going to put that statue of Axelrod? nt

[Bucky]

9. I hate you. Dammit, why did you show me that map? Now I need to calm down again.

Ahhh, that's better

[Catch22Dem]

11. Hey

I complied with the request. Chug one with me, and savor the calming effect. :beer:

[MadBadger]

2. Basically Bush's lead held steady for those four weeks

[Honeycombe8]

5. And it seemed Kerry couldn't get past 46 in most polls. nt

[Bicoastal]

3. Take a look at electoral-vote.com from 4 years ago today...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct06.html

Now look at it today:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Viva la difference!

[mucifer]

4. holy f'ing crap!!!!!

[Honeycombe8]

6. Holy Electoral Map, Batman!!!!! Ba-DA-bing! That 50 state strategy was successful,

I'd say!

[mucifer]

10. well we aren't there yet. but, it is less than a month.

[tritsofme]

7. Its a snapshot like this that the 2004 fantasy vote fraudsters don't appreciate.

Looking at the polls it was fairly clear that Bush would win by this point in 2004.

Looking at the polls it is fairly clear that Obama will win by this point in 2008.

The only ones who are surprised are the ones not paying attention.

[Bicoastal]

12. Yes, but damned if Kerry didn't close the gap in the next couple weeks...

...in the end, all we needed was one swing state--and the one that came closest happened to be Ohio.

[Honeycombe8]

13. Well, Bush edged up in the next wk or so, then Kerry edged up a bit before the election.

But they were neck and neck for a long time.

In any case, at this time pre-election, there was DEFINITELY a difference between the 2004 polls and the 2008 polls. Doesn't mean they'll stay that way, but it means SOMETHING! It's sure better than Obama being BEHIND in all the polls even more than Kerry was.

[iamthebandfanman]

14. look at oct 8th in 2004 tho

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct08.html

Kerry 280 Bush 239

heck, look at nov 1st
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html

Kerry 298 Bush 231

[Bicoastal]

15. Looks like the site's owner didn't average polls back then...

...(s)he just posted whichever poll was the most recent. There was a lot more fluidity back then...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

16. let's see what happens after the debate