What's up with the Hotline tracking poll? Obama's only up 2 today

[democrattotheend]

They say the race has tightened considerably since yesterday, when Obama led by 5, and that Obama's lead on handling the economy has evaporated. Could be an outlier but combined with the CBS poll yesterday I'm a little worried...I've been afraid of the race tightening in the face of these character attacks.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100708.htm

[Marsala]

1. The internals showed a jump in Republican identification

Self identified Democrats went down by one percent and Republicans went up by three percent.

[Schulzz]

4. You are right.

Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.

Not going to happen.

[Abacus]

14. Which is also the difference between yesterday's results and today's

Yesterday: 47 - 41
Today: 46 - 44

[jezebel]

2. that poll only interviews 300 people each night, so there is a lot more volatility and error in each

nights sample.

[democrattotheend]

3. Is the report based on one-day results or a 3-day average?

[occe]

5. That's a bad sign

That is not good.

[still_one]

12. Really, on the basis of one poll? I think not, especially when you consider all the polls /nt

[jefferson_dem]

15. ...

:scared:

Uh-huh.

[still_one]

18. and how come you are ignoring Rassmesun and Gallop which have different results?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[occe]

21. Makes me feel better

That makes me feel better :) Its just I get worry when things are close. Zogby said things are tied now, but
i'm not sure if I trust Zogby. Thanks for the insight :)

[still_one]

24. I am not saying we should not be concerned, but we should not be too depressed either

The economy implosion has really focused attention on the issues, and since the republicans controlled the show for most of that time, it is going to be quite difficult for them to run away from that involvement, especially Phil Graham and his association with McCain

[AndyA]

19. Not necessarily. Americans know that Republicans couldn't run a decent

economy if it bit them on the ass. And the economy isn't going to just go away, it's going to get worse, and the worse it gets, the more it will bring down McSame and that nit wit woman he picked for VP.

[budkin]

6. The race is bound to tighten as we approach election day.

[Ashy Larry]

7. I think they may have oversampled republicans

The party breakdown is 40% Democrat, 38% Republican, and 18% Independents. Yesterday it was 41%D, 36%R, 19%I and the result was Obama 47% McCain 41%.

[Schulzz]

10. Yes, Rasmussen for expample uses 39:33.

If they used the same sample, Obama would be ahead by at least 6.

[Hope And Change]

8. OH MY GOD THE SKY IS FALLING.GEEEZ.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[my3boyz]

11. National polls show movement before state polls. IT takes state polls a couple of days to catch up.

[Hope And Change]

25. So you are expecting Obama to start slip in the state polls because of ONE FUCKING NATIONAL POLL?

[Hope And Change]

26. By the way you are wrong.National polls doesn`t necessarily reflect state polls.I remember...

that even until the end of the Democratic primary Obama was leading Hillary only with a couple of few points but won in some states with double digit numbers.The OP is focusing only on one or should I say two national polls which is of course the wrong way to do if you want to know the AVERAGE of ALL national polls.It`s just another "concern" post.

[maseman]

9. It will tighten folks

Also if the party ID did change that could have some impact.

That is exactly why while everyone was throwing out parties for the winner I was saying let's keep kicking ass.

[Celebrandil]

13. Don't trust tracking polls

Those tracking polls are not as accurate as one might think. When you smooth small sample sets across a number of days, you may see trends that are not actually there. If you analyze the raw data you more easily see how volatile it really is.

[speedoo]

16. As long as the economy is the front and center issue, McCain has no chance.

And one set of polling numbers is not changing that fact.

[MadBadger]

17. Party ID is fucked up in that poll

[ShortnFiery]

20. M$M bullshit spin. The Political Elites are sweating bricks that Obama may win. M$M manipulation.

Why? Because they can ($$$$$$$$). :evilgrin:

[Sensitivity]

22. Let's not forget that TERROR AND SMEARS tend to work -- especially when combined

[Godhumor]

23. Something is out of whack--they have independents favoring McCain by 8 points on the economy

Which runs opposite of pretty much everything else that has been reported. Looking at the poll numbers, I think Hotline has adjusted its weighting or sampling methods within the last day.