Forget that twisted Hotline poll Ras tracking has Obama up by 8 and Kos Tracking by 11

[WI_DEM]

(The hotline poll hiked the number of GOP respondents and reduced the # of democrats for yesterday's poll)

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the second straight day that Obama has led by eight percentage points, his largest lead of the year. For the past twelve days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day (see trends).

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 52% (see trends). Obama is viewed Very Favorably by 39% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 28%. For McCain, those numbers are 24% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable. The two Presidential candidates will debate tonight in Nashville, Tennessee using a town hall format.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Daily Kos Polling Data for October 07, 2008
MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
Overall 41 52 2 2 2 1
MEN 47 45 3 2 2 1
WOMEN 35 59 1 2 2 1
DEM 8 88 0 2 1 1
REP 85 7 2 0 2 4
IND 39 51 4 3 2 1
OTH/REF 39 49 3 2 2 5
WHITE 51 40 3 2 3 1
BLACK 3 93 0 0 0 4
LATINO 20 67 0 1 0 12
OTHER/REF 6 84 0 1 0 9
18-29 28 64 0 1 2 5
30-44 42 49 4 2 2 1
45-59 43 51 1 2 2 1
60+ 46 42 1 2 1 8
NORTHEAST 28 66 2 2 1 1
SOUTH 53 41 2 1 2 1
MIDWEST 38 55 2 2 1 2
WEST 38 54 2 2 3 1


Yesterday's Results
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/06 41 50 2 2 2 3

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/07

[sharp_stick]

1. Is there a breakdown for the hotline poll?

I didn't see anything listing the change in party affiliation but I'll admit that I wasn't looking too hard either.

[Teaser]

4. 40% Dem 38% Repub

it's just statistical noise.

[uponit7771]

5. Yeah, they constantly oversample reThugs...

[leftist.]

2. I don't think the polls are tightening!

Thanks for this post WI_DEM. The Hotline poll genuinely seems to be an out lier; the CBS poll has him ahead at the low end of the list of polls doing daily tracking; and the Zogby poll only just started I think. At this point, I am not worried AT ALL!

[Teaser]

3. Hotline did NOT "hike" the number of republicans in the survey

you make it sound like it was a conscious decision on their part. It wasn't.

They have a very small nightly sample size (300). So they are more likely to get wild swings in numbers like party ID because they are looking at such a small sample. In 3 days, that sample will fall off, and the odds are it'll be a six point lead again for Obama.

[WI_DEM]

6. Ok, calm down.

[Teaser]

10. I'm extremely calm

but I do care about statistics a lot.

[still_one]

7. I think what has gotten people jittery is the concern that the lies coming

from mccain and palin might be believed

My argument against that line of thought, is that Obama is not just ignoring it

He is not only addressing it, but throwing it right back

Obama will not let stand the lies that mccain is making at tonights debate

[WI_DEM]

8. The debate tonight will be critical--let McCain attack Obama while Obama focuses on real issues.

[still_one]

9. I agree it will be critical, but I think Obama will use mccain's negativity

against him. Debate Jujitsu