CNN/TIME Poll: Obama Gains in States That Went for Bush

[sabra]

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1847805,00.html?imw=Y

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week's vice-presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion.

In North Carolina, which Bush won by more than 12 percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, McCain and Obama are locked in a dead heat, with each candidate garnering the support of 49% of likely voters. In Indiana, which Bush won by 21 points in 2004 and 16 points in 2000, McCain maintains a slight 5-point lead over Obama, with 51% of likely voters, compared with Obama's 46%.

In the crucial swing state of Ohio, which Bush won by slight margins in both 2000 and 2004, McCain trails Obama by 3 points, with the support of 47% of voters, compared with Obama's 50%. Obama also holds a statistically significant 8-point lead over McCain in New Hampshire and a 5-point lead in Wisconsin, two states that Democrat John Kerry was able to win in 2004.

As a result of the new survey, CNN now considers New Hampshire and Wisconsin to be Obama-leaning states, after previously being considered toss-ups. North Carolina is now considered a toss-up, after previously being categorized as a McCain-leaning state.

The polls were conducted between Oct. 3 and 6, after last Thursday's debate. They have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 to 4 percentage points.