NC POLL: Obama 46 (+8), McCrypt 49 (-9)

[jefferson_dem]

Obama Puts McCain on Defensive in North Carolina: In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 10/07/08, four weeks till votes are counted, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama, or possibly does not, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WTVD-TV Raleigh. The contest today stands at McCain 49%, Obama 46%, if black turnout is 20% on Election Day, as SurveyUSA expects and as SurveyUSA herein reports. However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the world looks different.
The contest in North Carolina has tightened since a SurveyUSA poll conducted immediately after the Republican Convention. Today: McCain leads among men, among voters age 50+, among voters who attend religious services regularly, among pro-life voters and in Greater Charlotte. The contest is effectively even among women, voters under 50, in Greater Greensboro and in Southern and Coastal NC. Obama leads among the youngest voters, among lower-income voters, among Independents, among Moderates, and in greater Raleigh. McCain holds 87% of his GOP base. But Obama holds just 75% of Democrats.

100K NC Blacks May Determine the Next President, the Governor of NC, and whether Democrats Have a Filibuster-Proof Senate: Black turnout is key to forecasting not just who gets North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, but also whether the state elects a Democratic Governor and whether the state contributes a critical take-away to the Democratic effort to get to 60 Senators in Washington DC. McCain today leads 2:1 among whites. Obama leads 17:1 among blacks. In SurveyUSA's model, blacks are 20% of the North Carolina electorate. However: If black turnout increases, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, from approximately 750,000 NC black voters to 850,000 NC black voters, it is possible that Obama wins North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, that Kay Hagan defeats Elizabeth Dole in the US Senate contest, and that Beverly Perdue defeats Pat McCrory in the North Carolina Governor's race. See the SurveyDNA™ brand hypothetical data set that gives you an exclusive window into how things change with slightly larger black turnout.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults 10/05/08 and 10/06/08. Of the adults, 789 were were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 617 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before election day. Absentee voting began September 15. Obama has a slight advantage among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. North Carolina has 15 Electoral College votes. Incumbent Republican President George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points in 2004 and by 13 points in 2000.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b8aada59-7fd2-4374-bbe2-df789901eca8

[darius15]

1. Weren't blacks 26% of the NC electorate in 04?

If I'm correct, then this poll is bogus.

[FreeState]

2. Yep they were - link - its a bad poll as usual (SUSA is always way over or under IMO)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297180/

ARE YOU:
Category % Total Kerry Bush
White 71 27 73
Black 26 85 14
Hispanic / Latino 1 - -
Asian 0 - -
Other 2 - -

[ej510]

4. I believe blacks make up a quarter of the NC electorate.

[Bullet1987]

3. SUSA has had Obama behind in NC...and I don't think they poll this state well

I remember them being way off in NC for the primary.