9/3 Election Model (Zogby effect): Kerry 290 EV, 80% Win Prob, 51% vote

[TruthIsAll]

The bad news:
Kerry has slipped the last two weeks. With the new Zogby poll out today (46-44 Bush), I have updated the national polling data accordingly and downloaded the latest state polling data from electoral-vote.com.

The good news:
Things are not as bad as they look. Kerry is still ahead in the 11 and 15 national poll averages by 1.5% to 2%. And he's leading in the Electoral Vote projections as well. Electoral vote.com has him behind in EV, but they don't 1) run a simulation or 2) factor in the assumed break in the undecideds.

The model provides EV's and probabilities for 50,55,60,67,75% allocation to Kerry. Take your pick. Conservative? Optimistic? Or in between?

Finally, note that the national and state models confirm each other. Both the win probabilities and national vote percentages are within a narrow 1-2% range.

It's Kerry's election to lose.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Florida_Geek]

1. Kerry has not be running ads for a month

and not been out during the Repub convention.

Still he is ahead..... No bad...

[TruthIsAll]

2. Kerry is behind in MO, AZ, NC, OH, VA , WV and...PA!

Now we know he's going to win PA.

He's close (see the battleground stats) in the rest.

And he's TIED in CO.

He's got 8 weeks to regain the Big MO.

[nodictators]

3. Not true. California may be up for grabs.

A recent LA Times poll had Bush winning CA by 2%.

Is that an outlier? Maybe. Or, as some have suggested it may include the fraud factor.

Schwarzenegger has frozen about $15 million in HAVA money. The Democratic Secretary of State Kevin Shelley is facing numerous investigations.

This may be the setup for Schwarzenegger seizing power and running the presidential election with his own people.

BushCo was praised in the media for stealing the presidency in 2000. They may do it again.

[yellowcanine]

5. Do you have a link for the LA Times Poll. Are you sure? Anyway,

Arnold doesn't have it in his ability to steal Cally-fornia for Bush. This ain't no snap recall election. Kerry will take it by at least 7-10 points.

[loudsue]

14. Sorry yellowcanine....noindicators is CORRECT....Diebold is BACK!!

Sec. of State Shelley had outlawed the Diebold machines based on the research and evidence of gerrymandering, and the Atty.General was told to bring criminal charges.

So the neocons, at the urging of Diebold and with the groper at the wheel, went after Shelley for some campaign fund scandal.

Suddenly, the Atty. General is in the Groper's camp, and they (the Atty. General and the Groper) have given the go-ahead to Diebold, and the Groper FROZE THE FEDERAL FUNDS that Shelley was allocated to do the audits on the election.

THIS IS A DIEBOLD/NEOCON COUP against the voters in California, and noindicators is absolutely correct: The Fix Is In in California. All 55 electoral votes will be in the dubya column come Nov. 2. Without California, Kerry can't win.

Unless EVERYBODY takes to the streets in California NOW, we're going to see 4 more years of bush. Someone needs to organize the biggest protest this country has ever seen in California....bigger than the RNC! Either that, or this election will be the biggest sham of the century. The "polls" are already starting to reflect the fact that California isn't necessarily going for Kerry. The media pundits are calling it "a very close race" there. THEY KNOW!!

This is happening folks! It's REALLY important that people start reading and paying attention to the BBV threads!!! This whole election turns on what is happening with the voting machines....not the media, not the GOTV (even though that is also EXTREMELY important!), but the machines that will count the votes.

I sure hope people start to wake up before we get any closer to Nov. 2. We can either ACT now, or whine when it's all over.

:kick::kick::kick:

[pmbryant]

6. Never heard of that poll

I think you're thinking of the national LA Times poll. No poll has shown Bush ahead in California.

--Peter

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. LOL!

and if you didn't hear me the first time... LOFL. :eyes:

[Poiuyt]

4. Question for TIA

What happens if the undecideds do not go to the polls?

[TruthIsAll]

10. They will, but if you assume they won't, then look at the 50% allocation

Assume they would have voted equally for Kerry and Bush.

[GiovanniC]

7. electoral-vote.com SORTA Has a Simulated Final Outcome

It shows Kerry winning 301 to 227 with a tie in Minnesota. Not overly accurate at the moment, but it follows trend lines.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep03p.html

[yellowcanine]

11. That projection is crap. It is based on regressions of all polls up to

now with the regression lines extended to Nov 2. Any undergraduate statistics student will tell you that violates a basic rule of regression analysis that the regression model cannot be used to predict results beyond the end data points. It is not not only "not overly accurate" it is complete nonsense.

[TruthIsAll]

12. You are wrong! Time series regression is widely used in forecasting.

Just ask any econometrician or economics professor.

A regression analysis is a best-fit model.

It can be of the form y=ax+b (a linear trend)

or
y= ax+by+c (two variable)

or
y = ax^2+bx + c (a quadratic trend)

or...

y =ae^bx + c (exponential trend)

http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/stat-data/Forecast.htm

[GiovanniC]

13. And It Will Become More Accurate the Closer We Get to November

n/t

[featherman]

9. We know that PA and IA will vote for Kerry giving him

269. This includes the Gore states plus NH and NV (which now looks more likely for Kerry than WV).
It does not include TN which I am inclined to think will not go for Kerry.
The election comes down to whether Bush can again win ALL of these :
AZ, CO, MO, AR, LA, OH, WV, TN, VA, NC, FL.

[loudsue]

15. Please see posts # 3 and #14....California will go for BUSH if we don't

act NOW!!

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE keep up with the BBV threads!!!

:kick::kick::kick: