Diageo/Hotline Poll: Obama 44-McCain 44 (WTF?)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

No link, sent by email.

[Alhena]

1. Doesn't include the debate numbers I'm sure

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. negative attacks work

stay steady and keep on track.

Do what you've been doing.

[democrattotheend]

24. Agreed. I was afraid of the polls tightening as a result of the Ayers crap.

Hopefully last night's debate will help reverse that trend. Hotline seems to show more movement day to day...maybe they use fewer days in their average. I would not be surprised to see Gallup tighten a point or 2 today as well.

[alcibiades_mystery]

27. Why would you be afraid?

Just keep fucking working. We don't have time for fear.

[brianna69]

25. Negative attacks

It has nothing to do with negative attacks. They changed the party ID affiliation to just +2 democrat hence the change you have seen in their polling for this week as against last week. Obama has between a 6 -8 point lead nationally as is shown in rasmussen, research 2000, gallup and most of the other national polls out now.

[Hope And Change]

3. Thanks for your concern.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

10. It's not concern, it's confusion.

Every other poll shows us between +6 and +11. This is clearly an outlier, but still, :wtf:

[Hope And Change]

11. Don`t be a drama queen.Try to relax a little.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

13. How is confusion being a drama queen?

Seriously, what is YOUR problem?

[Hope And Change]

17. It`s you that have a problem.Try to take a deep breath and relax a little.It might help.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

32. Whatever dude.

Short of not having a pulse, I don't think I could be more relaxed.

[Renew Deal]

21. I'm a little confused by it too.

McCain is trending up in state and national polls all over the place. The Hotline polls have been generally good to Obama. Where did this one come from?

[MaineDem]

4. I just got that email, too

It said tied 44-44 among men. But Obama has a one point lead overall. I don't buy it.

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 45%
McCain/Palin 44%
Undec 9%

- Obama and McCain are now tied 44-44% among men. Today's Diageo/Hotline poll is the first in which Obama has not led men since he trailed them 46-45% in the survey completed 9/26.

- The candidates remained tied on economic issues. 42% believe Obama would do the best job handling the U.S. economy, and 42% say McCain. 62% meanwhile believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S.

- McCain, however, now has his largest lead ever on energy issues. 46% favor the GOP nominee on managing U.S. energy policies, and 40% favor Obama. One week ago, in the survey completed 9/30, Obama led 46-40% on energy.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/5-7 by FD, surveyed 904 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

[mohc]

7. They must be getting some whacky results

If Obama is tied among men but only up 1 point overall they must not have a big gender gap. The R2K poll for example shows McCain leading by 3 among men but losing overall by 10 because Obama leads women by 23 points. Its hard to imagine why they would be getting such different results among women between the different polls.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

15. I think it's a combo of statistical noise and a higher weighting of Rs.

This hadn't been an outlier poll in this cycle until the last few days.

[mohc]

20. If it were a different subgroup I might buy that

But gender breaks down close to 50/50 for a sample, so the sampling error really is not much different than the group as a whole. Unless there shift to Republicans was accomplished by drawing down the number Democratic women polled and replacing them with Republican women, there is basically no way to get a result that is 20% off what other polls are showing. Basically if you told me you have an accurate sample of men showing an even split, I would know we are guaranteed a landslide because women are going to split 20% more for Obama at the very least. No way would it be under 10, and certainly not under 5 as this poll would imply.

[cali]

5. relax. look at the state polls.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. I'm relaxed, just confused.

Cali, you know I'm not a concern troll, and you know I'm pretty steady about these things. I'd just like to know how this is so far outside of what everyone else is saying, especially since this poll had been closely tied to most of the other ones.

[Hope And Change]

18. I agree.Not only that.Focusing on ONE NATIONAL POLL is pretty stupid to do.

[Barack_America]

6. Wow. They must be up to 60% Republicans sampled.

They keep getting these close numbers by increasing the numbers of Republicans polled.

[Jennicut]

8. Oversampling Rethugs in this poll. They suddenly changed it the other day.

Plus, they poll much less people then the other polls. Its definitely out of wack and not consistent with the other polls. It might tighten up one or two points in the next few days as the so called "undecideds" make up their minds but a full 5 to 6 point swing is just crazy.

[AllentownJake]

9. That poll like Zogby

has been off for days.

[melody]

14. Sample too small and too GOP rich

Too many Republicons in the soup.

[Sodan]

16. set up for stealing the election?

[LynneSin]

19. Did you see who runs Diageo? They're a Liquor Distributor. Who else distributes booze?

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

Diageo, the world's leading spirits, beer and wine company, and The Hotline, the leading daily news briefing on American politics, have teamed up to bring you the Diageo/Hotline Poll. The poll is conducted monthly by FD, a specialist communications consultancy, focusing public opinion research on important national issues to inform and stimulate debate.

[jefferson_dem]

22. It's actually Obama 45, McCrypt 44.

They are tied at 44-44 among men.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100808.htm

[Hope And Change]

29. Thanks for correcting that jefferson_dem!

:thumbsup:

[brianna69]

23. Change in Party ID

Hotline for some unknown reason changed party ID from +5 democrat to a mere +2(providing no reason) which is insane.Hence the sudden decline in Obama's numbers in their polls. Even Rasmussen has a +5.5 for democrats in their party ID for their polls. Ignore hotline polls.
In regards to Zogby - their dreadful track record speaks for itself. Ignore all Zogby and ARG polls, they both have horrendous track records.

[Democat]

26. Negative attacks work! Don't be fooled!

The American people almost alwayas respond to negative attacks. Don't believe anything else.

Obama better have some very negative attacks ready for McCain.

There was a post-debate poll of focus group that someone posted that showed the voters thought Obama won, but a majority of them still said they were planning to vote for McCain. Why do you think that is? Because many people vote on character, not issues or intelligence. If Obama allows his "character" ratings to drop below McCain's, then he will probably lose the election.

McCain's people are going to keep up a steady drumbeat of attacks, hoping to drop Obama one point every day. At some point, even if McCain doesn't go up in the polls, Obama will come down to McCain's level based on character attacks.

Negative attacks work.

[JaneQPublic]

28. Compare with these other recent polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[WI_DEM]

30. Stop focusing on this poll, the other polls, RAS, Research 2000, show Obama well ahead.

[liberalpragmatist]

31. Keep in mind the race could well tighten

Especially in open-seat races, there is often a tightening by election day. This can happen even when the losing candidate isn't running a particularly good campaign. Both Nixon in '68 and Carter in '76 saw large leads nearly evaporate by election day -- they both barely won. Obama's numbers may have been slightly inflated the last few days.

Now, I still expect Obama to win. And to be honest, I don't really expect it to be a tiny win either -- somewhere between 4 and 6 points.

But this poll -- even if it's an outlier -- and that "tightening effect" are reasons why we should NOT get complacent. Our efforts are still important and nobody knows what's going to happen on Election Day. If the race DOES tighten again, our ground efforts could make the difference.

[Schulzz]

33. RCP has Hotline listed as 45-44 (O +1)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

44-44 is among men

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100808.htm

[WI_DEM]

34. YOU SHOULD CHANGE YOUR HEADLINE IT'S 45-44 FOR OBAMA.

[Schulzz]

35. 44-44 is among men only.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100808.htm