"What's Going on in Pennsylvania?" (Ruy Teixieira)

[On the Road]

There's been a shocking amount of weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth in Democratic circles considering that most polls still show Kerry ahead. Indeed, the just-released ICR poll (see below) has Kerry ahead by 7 points among RVs, a greater margin than the same poll had three weeks ago.

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What's the evidence for this tightened Pennsylvania race? Disregarding the recent poll by the very Republican Strategic Vision firm, the most recent reputable poll in PA is the Gallup poll of 8/23-26. That poll shows Kerry trailing Bush by a point among likely voters (LVs). I emphasize that this result is among LVs because most PA polls that people have heard about have been conducted among registered voters (RVs). Therefore, comparing these earlier PA polls to Gallup's current LV result is not an apples to apples comparison and tells you nothing about whether and how the race has changed.

Especially when we note the following: the same Gallup poll that has Bush ahead by a point among LVs in the Bush-Kerry matchup has him behind by 5 points among RVs!

In fact, check out the last three reputable poll results from PA among RVs:

8/23-26 (Gallup): Kerry, +5
8/13-21 (Issues PA): Kerry, +2
8/11-16 (Quinnipiac): Kerry, +5

Conclusion: there is no tightening in the PA race once we do an apples to apples comparison.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000631.php

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Sound poll reading from the excellent Donkey Rising blog.

[enough]

1. kick for PA

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