Pollster: Don’t believe the Dem hype (guess who?)

[okieinpain]

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/2008/view.bg?articleid=1124117&srvc=2008campaign&position=8

I'm starting to think he might go out and do a terrorist act himself.

[LiberalAndProud]

1. Thought so.

Zogby has found a niche market -- propping up the underdog.

[Schulzz]

2. The one who said it will be a McCain landslide. nt

[rainy]

3. Sounds like it was rigged back then too. Voters switching right at

the end of the campaign?

[occe]

4. Why does the article say

"statistical dead heat"? Some posters on here had a Gallup poll released yesterday of Obama up 11%?

[okieinpain]

8. The presidential race is still too close

The presidential race is still too close to call and could come down to the very last weekend before voters decide if they like or distrust Barack Obama, a national pollster predicts.

“I don’t think Obama has closed the deal yet,” pollster John Zogby told the Herald yesterday.

Zogby’s latest poll, released yesterday in conjunction with C-Span and Reuters, shows Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat, with the Illinois Democrat up 48-45 percent.

[Trajan]

5. When you dont post text: You force us to hit that website ... why ?

Why should we pump up the attendance numbers for a website that doesnt deserve our support ....

Pollster: Don’t believe the Dem hype

By Joe Dwinell & Jessica Fargen | Wednesday, October 8, 2008 | http://www.bostonherald.com | 2008 Pres. Campaign

The presidential race is still too close to call and could come down to the very last weekend before voters decide if they like or distrust Barack Obama, a national pollster predicts.

“I don’t think Obama has closed the deal yet,” pollster John Zogby told the Herald yesterday.

Zogby’s latest poll, released yesterday in conjunction with C-Span and Reuters, shows Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat, with the Illinois Democrat up 48-45 percent.

Zogby said the race mirrors the 1980 election, when voters didn’t embrace Ronald Reagan over then-President Jimmy Carter until just days before the election.

“The Sunday before the election the dam burst,” Zogby said of the 1980 tilt. “That’s when voters determined they were comfortable with Reagan.”

Now voters are wrestling with two senators with opposite resumes - Obama, at 47, the unknown, and the established 72-year-old McCain.

Zogby said he’s still hearing from moderates and non-partisan voters - what he calls “the big middle” - who are still shopping for a candidate.

“It still can break one way or the other,” Zogby says.

-snip-

I really dislike when DUers wont post the fair use allowance of copy material .... We shouldnt have to link into every website to get the gist of the referenced story ...

[Kukesa]

6. Thanx, Trajan; I appreciate your posting the text. n/t

[WeDidIt]

7. Zogby's job is to keep the image of "horse race" going

If it's not close, nobody watches. Nobody watches, and nobody buys ad time. Nobody buys ad time and pollsters aren't needed.

See how that works?

[TwilightGardener]

9. Zogby is an attention whore--he's playing directly to the Freep crowd now

who cling to him and his crap polls out of desperation for any hopeful sign--trolling around over there, they go nuts if McCain gains a point here, or Obama loses a point there (IT'S TRENDING OUR WAY!!! PALIN POWER!!), and they don't even post polls that are "bad" for them now. They're in the bunker, and they're going batshit insane.

[featherman]

10. Zogby model has basic error and his own top number makes no sense

It's mathematically impossible for Obama to be leading Dems by the same percentage as McCain is leading GOP PLUS leading INDS by 10% and still be "statistically even".

Zogby is not accounting for the massive edge in DEM registered or DEM leaning voters nationwide

His numbers might sort of work only if you accept such an unlikely turnout model such as: 35% Dem, 35% Gop, 30% Ind (or something like that).

This is not the likely voter proportions this year according to anybody else.

The old statistical axiom applies here: "garbage in, garbage out"

Not sure what James is up to here. Strange stuff.