10/5-8 ARG WV Poll: Obama 50% - McCain 42%

[McDiggy]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html

ummmmm.....wtf? i just don't buy it. mostly because it's ARG. interesting though.

[TwilightGardener]

1. Whoa.

[TwilightGardener]

5. On second thought, it looks like oversampled Democrats--must be random and not weighted

by party.

[berni_mccoy]

8. WV is primarily Democratic

[McDiggy]

14. It was an accurate sample

Breakdown of polling here was dem - 55% rep - 35%.

And the breakdown of registrants statewide?

Dem 56% rep 29%

Seems that, if anything, republican were overpolled.

[TwilightGardener]

18. Huh! Good to know.

[occe]

2. I think

Obama can snag WV :thumbsup:

[Beetwasher]

Incredilble

He's starting to really run away with it. :wow:

[WI_DEM]

3. ARG also has Obama up by only one-point in Minnesota, so I take their polls with a grain of salt.

[slick8790]

4. I don't buy it either, because it's ARG, but...

Lets not forget WV went democratic pretty reliably until 2000.

[Botany]

6. I don't know if this true because W.V. is very red (neck) but .....

.... the economy has to come into play here.

[Arugula Latte]

7. West Virginia did go for Clinton at least once, didn't it?

[ej510]

9. This pole is an outlier.

[Botany]

15. 92 & 96 went to clinton

I :loveya: the google

But the UMW can turn out a lot of votes in W.V.

[McDiggy]

20. The importance of the economy has been overstated in WV

...WV lead the nation in economic growth last quarter.

http://www.dailymail.com/Business/200810080118

WV will feel the recession much less than other states. There is no housing bubble and WV industries aren't going sour. As much as outsiders hate to admit it, WVians are more intelligent and savvy than the stereotypes would indicate.

[brianna69]

10. ARG Polls are garbage.

ARG Polls suck and are total crap. Their track record is horrendous. I would wait on some other polls of WV before we celebrate. Two polling companies I have no faith in due to their awful track records - ARG and Zogby.

[Sodan]

24. I think Realclearpolitics stopped using them

They don't use Zogby either - other than the daily tracking with Reuters/Cspan

[thesubstanceofdreams]

27. RCP had stopped using ARG...

... until ARG came up with a batch of polls which heavily (and unrealistically) favored McPalin.
Since this batch tends to erratically favor Obama, my money is on RCP ignoring them.
RCP is not an objective site, even though they purport to be. They have no clear methodology about which polls to use and for how long they count them in the average. So they cherry-pick to some extent to favor McPalin.

[Teaser]

11. ARG smokes crank

.

[SuperTrouper]

12. Remember McCain wants to drill drill drill, throwing coal under the bus

[Alter Ego]

13. They're polling Obama's Dem support at 76%--far below the national

but more than enough for WV. Trouble is, I don't think he's getting more than 65-70%.

[blueclown]

16. I think Obama has a chance to win WV.

And it's not because of this poll. ARG sucks.

It's because of the state's Democratic roots and the terrible economy.

[speedoo]

17. Any WV folks here? Has that Ralph Stanley radio ad been playing?

Ralph talks about "here in southwest Virgina" but I believe West Virginia folks will listen up anyway.

[Every Man A King]

19. Hmm i think the way they worded the question

Really throws off the results:

"If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?"

It really highlights the VPs and this could explain the results?

[Occam Bandage]

21. ARG polls are trash. Move along.

[mvd]

22. Need more polls here to get excited

But I really do think we have a chance in WV. Just got to get more Democrats coming home.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

23. ARG is the worst poster out there

Their results are usually exactly opposite of what everybody else is saying.
If eihter democrats or republicans start campaigning in WV or playing TV ads then you'll know WV is in play. Until then, it's safe to cross it off.

[yodermon]

25. pollster's chart.. i dunno, y'all!

Pollster has them as a tossup.

[Phoonzang]

26. Oh bull....if Obama wins WV, I'll eat my foot.

Edit: Read too quickly...it's ARG. That explains it.