Senator Obama takes 8 point lead in latest West Virginia poll!!!

[Politics_Guy25]

Yes yes I know it's ARG but still. Also some fairly good numbers elsewhere for us considering how bad ARG has been for us all year.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

October 9, 2008

Presidential Ballots
State McCain Obama Other Undecided

MN 46% 47% 1% 6%
MO 49% 46% 1% 4%
MT 50% 45% - 5%
NH* 43% 52% 1% 4%
OH 45% 48% 1% 6%
TX 57% 38% 1% 5%
WV 42% 50% 3% 5%

Click on each state for survey details. Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

*In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 51% to 42%, with 7% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 57% to 37% among independent (undeclared) voters.

*In the race for Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch leads Joseph Kenney 65% to 26%, with 9% undecided. Kenney leads Lynch 62% to 26% among registered Republicans. Lynch leads Kenney 74% to 14% among independent (undeclared) voters.

Shaheen looks on track for a big NH win as well. Cool.

[marmar]

1. Wow......

Maybe they won't be able to steal this one.

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

2. You did say West Virginia, right?

Wow, indeed!

[ryanmuegge]

3. Hopefully nobody watches the next debate and nobody pays any attention to the news.

Because things are looking good for us right now, and I don't want any bullshit stories to change the minds of the electorate.

[Schulzz]

I don't buy it until it is confirmed by another pollster, but

WV is a state where an upset might be possible. McCain hasn't been too far ahead before.

[Blondiegrrl]

5. Neither camp has campaigned in WV, but Hillary Clinton will be in Charleston on Friday.

She's stumping for Anne Barth, who is running for Congress, but I'll bet Hillary will at least mention Obama a time or two.

The economic crisis is definitely hitting WV hard. I live here and I can tell you it's the No. 1 issue West Virginians are concerned with.

[grantcart]

10. I agree WV could end up being surprisingly close

a little reverse Bradley and some stay at home itis from McCain people and it could be a surprise win.

[cyndensco]

15. "A little reverse Bradley Effect..."

Question: My sister's boss thinks the polls are skewed because some people polled will not admit they support Obama. On election day, these folk will "secretly" vote Obama. I can't really wrap my mind around this - it makes little logical sense to me - but do you think such a phenomenon is possible?

Is your take on reverse Bradley simply that people stay home and not vote at all?

[grantcart]

18. It makes absolute sense in areas where folks listen to Rush Limbaugh at work together

and they just try and talk tough.


I was a at the gym a couple of months ago and in the Sauna one guy was going on and on about Obama and Wright.

I kept quiet and then I just asked questions, did you actually listen to the whole sermon, did you actually see the picture of his house, did you actually read Obama's book or did you just get it from Rush Limbaugh who is an admited liar.


I never argued with him I just kept on asking if he had done any independent research or was he basing it on an admited drug addict. When we moved to the jacuzzi the other guys started asking questions about Obama and half the guys admitted they were voting for Obama. The two die hard Republicans admitted they didn't like McCain anyway.

After it was all over the guy that was really spewing the Obama hate came up and thanked me because his daughter had become a full time Obama volunteer and it almost ruined their relation and he was upset because he was about to visit her and now he could atleast listen to what she had to say.


Here's the reason that I think it will happen: When people are in a social setting the most bellicose person will dominate the conversation but the reasonable people will be non confrontational. Many people in areas where racists predominate would prefer to appear to go along rather than stand out.

[cyndensco]

20. I see your point in that situation.

If someone is over-the-top it is often easier, especially in a sauna where your focus is elsewhere, to remain neutral. If Zogby showed up there, I could see how someone might claim they are voting mccain.

Pollsters though, as far as I know, typically phone. If someone is willing to participate in the poll, I don't get why they would not own up to voting for Obama. There would not be anyone in their homes to "impress."

Oh well, I hope reverse Bradley does exist - whether it is that many who would normally vote mccain stay home or some who have polled mccain vote Obama. Whatever it takes to witness Obama's inauguration.... :hi:

[Blondiegrrl]

4. Ha! Ha! I love it.

I'm still skeptical that he can win WV, but it is nice to see this regardless.

[Politics_Guy25]

7. Remember even Dukaksis won West Virginia

And Obama is no Dukaksis

[Blondiegrrl]

12. Most West Virginians still believe Obama is a Muslim. That's the

biggest battle we're facing in this state.

But who knows ... if there's an upset come Election Day, I'll take back every bad thing I ever said about WV!

[skipos]

6. Too bad ARG is awful

I'd wait for another pollster before you get your hopes up.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. Yeah, +1 in MN shows how erratic this group is.

They're really not worth getting excited over. I don't think they're skewed so much as they have awful fundamentals.

[Cha]

8. Quick! mcpalin needs to take their one trick

pony show to West Virginia.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

11. A drunk monkey conducting the poll would get more accurate results

ARG is garbage, pure and simple. I don't get how they're still in business.

[bermudat]

13. No f*cking way!

West Virginia?! Please.

[Heather MC]

14. I think it maybe that Meritime border between WVA and VA that is effecting the polls

:rofl:

[Occam Bandage]

16. ARG polls are trash. Move along.

[Bake]

17. Aren't the Ralph Stanley spots runnning in WV?

Ralph's a very popular - revered - figure in that neck of the woods.

Bake

[loyalkydem]

19. This man

could win states that I did not think was winnable. What are his chances of winning TX? That would be embarrassing if he did that.