Bush With 11 Point Lead Now

[THUNDER HANDS]

Oy

Just on CNN. From Time Magazine. 52-41

:puke:

[Trajan]

1. I wont be cryin in my beer just yet ....

60 days left .... and plenty of rope in the GOP satchel ...

[quaoar]

2. Time magazine

[apnu]

8. says what?

[THUNDER HANDS]

12. likely voters, an 11-point lead for Bush

Remember, likely voters are probably not as accurate as registerd voters, since this election is expected to have a higher turnout than usual.

[Frodo]

30. That's pie in the sky wishful thinking.

"Likely voters" has at least SOME connection to people's response to the question "How likely are you to vote"?

[THUNDER HANDS]

37. likely i believe means that people voted regularly in the past

I think this election will bring out a lot of people who haven't voted in years past as well as new people who've never voted before.

All the polls, I'd suspect, are off. I don't trust anything that samples 500-1000 people and expects them to represent 100 million voters.

[Frodo]

50. It varies from pollster to pollster.

Usually it's self-identified.

Where the individual answers "I'm not sure" they use "did you vote last cycle?" and "how strongly to you feel about your choice" to help narrow it down.


But it's never (that I've seen) an outside assumption of who will vote this year (except for partisan balance).

[mbali]

74. What states did that big "bump" come from?

Texas? (then it don't mean nuttin)
California? (then it don't mean nuttin)
New York" (then it don't mean nuttin)
Ohio (THAT means sumpin)
Florida (THAT means sumpin)

You get the idea - if Bush is simply running up his score in the states he already has or is merely closing an insurmountable gap in the states he's never going to carry, the bump means nothing. If, on the other hand, he's gaining in the swing states, that's a different story.

All in all, this poll - even if accurate - without more info, doesn't mean a thing since this is not a national election.

[apnu]

3. what?!?!

[Guaranteed]

4. It was a Time Magazine poll.

:shrug:

[Guaranteed]

10. This can't be right, anyway.

Something's fishy.

[Kierkegaard]

33. Exactly. Look here for something closer to reality

http://www.pollingreport.com/index.html

[Jack_Dawson]

5. Doesn't matter

Swing states matter

[tom_paine]

6. WHAT? Not fucking possible. Soviet polls

As long as the Voting Machines aren't as rigged as the Polling System, we'll be OK.

But I have little hope that we are OK.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

7. Yeah, right. I just saw a flying pig, too.

[DenverDem]

9. Bull fucking shit!

In what parallel universe.

Don't believe the lying "pollster" hype.

[gulfcoastliberal]

11. Woodruff sounded ecstatic when she said that

bimbo whore....

[quaoar]

13. The poll was taken

through Tuesday, so it is mostly pre-RNC.

[MrSlayer]

14. No way is he that far ahead.

This is utter bullshit.

[seabeyond]

15. no way

:thumbsdown:

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[THUNDER HANDS]

21. me?

I haven't posted in a few days, what are you talking about?

[markses]

26. You know what I'm talking about

Rat.

[THUNDER HANDS]

well my psychic abilities have been on a fritz lately

please inform me.

[markses]

34. You can fool some of the people all of the time, etc.

And I promise not to call you a fuckwad, Magic "Rat" (har har).

[THUNDER HANDS]

40. dude, that's creepy

just tell me what your problem is or stop speaking about how i somehow offended you.

[Frodo]

52. It's called "bearer of bad news"

Can't blame TIME for a 16 point on-month swing... so blame the messenger.

[jpgray]

54. Of course there's no need to blame Time

The poll is not the problem, but the analysis at CNN will treat it as overimportant, and apparently it will burst several aortas on this board. I'll take the poll at face value, but I won't take it as an indisputable barometer of the electoral opinion--if we get a spate of polls in this direction that's one thing, but it's not smart to trust a single poll to be the ultimate indicator.

[MoonRiver]

17. Do you have a link?

I went to the Time Magazine site and only saw a poll taken 8/29 with * 2 pts. ahead.

[THUNDER HANDS]

24. i saw it on CNBC, then on CNN a few minutes later

if its not up now, it should be in a little while

[MoonRiver]

38. Well, you know that this will be considered bogus unless we have proof.

Holding my breath for you Magic Rat.

[THUNDER HANDS]

42. um...huh?

I just saw it on tv, on two different channels. People really need to take a breath around here.

[gasperc]

18. bullshit, race neck and neck, see polling report

www.pollingreport.com

[seabeyond]

48. this is time on polling report

General Election Trial Heats:


Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Other
(vol.) Unsure
% % % %
8/30 - 9/2/04 46 44 1 9
8/12-14/04 43 50 1 6
7/26-29/04 43 48 2 8
7/6-7/04 46 48 2 5

Bush Kerry Nader Badnarik Peroutka Cobb Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % % % % % %
8/30 - 9/2/04 46 43 3 - - - 8
8/12-14/04 43 47 2 1 - - 8
7/26-29/04 41 46 3 - 1 - 9
7/6-7/04 44 47 2 1 - - 6

[Guaranteed]

19. Zogby poll that ended yesterday only has Bush up by 2

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857

[Guaranteed]

31. And Time's VERY OWN 8/24-26/04 poll shows Kerry and Bush TIED

Now Bush is up by 11 points, just a few days hence?

[flpoljunkie]

32. Yes. Zogby telephone poll of 1001 LV was taken 8/30-9/2!

Zogby America Poll. Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004. N=1,001 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

Bush with 46% to Kerry's 44%.


 
 

[ramapo]

20. Can't be true

I refuse to believe that Americans could be dumb enough to give this miserable failure a second chance.

[tridim]

22. Sounds like they chose a high enough number

that would break through the Russia/Hurricane/Clinton story.

[quaoar]

23. Woodruff

also talked about the "rebound" in the jobs market with the 144,000 announced today.

Rebound my ass. It takes 150K a month just to account for population growth.

[rockymountaindem]

67. I've heard estimates from 150k to 250k

so even on the *low* end it's still bad news for Bush.

[onehandle]

25. Taken on the two days Before Bush's speech.

I heard this just now on CNN too. No link.

I want to see the details of this poll.

[librechik]

27. This poll is very bizarre--it is completely outside of the general trends

http://www.pollingreport.com/

among all the polls. The greatest difference across all the rest of the polls is a 4 point difference, within the MOE.

There is something wrong with this poll.

[Walt Starr]

28. Definitely an outlier if true

Zogby has Bush up by 2.

[Sean Reynolds]

64. But Zogby is shit...

At least that was what I heard all the time from DU.

[molly]

29. Bullshit

[Snivi Yllom]

35. grrrrrrrrr

saw this coming a mile away....

[West Coast Democrat]

36. I guess most Democrats take vacations at the end of August...

and aren't home responding to polls.

[Lex]

39. Let the Repukes believe that if they want

and they can sit their asses home on Nov 2nd since they think they have it in the bag.

[DemMother]

41. Here's the link--five point bounce for Bush from last LV poll

(which showed a tie without leaners).

No RV results--at least not since August 5th.


http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

Also the poll is through September 2nd.
It's so hard to figure out what it means--I'm going to wait for Ruy T. to sort it out. It's very hard to compare their results--at least based on the polling report figures. Some have leaners, some without, some LV, some RV--although no RV for the last two. Have to see what the other polls show before we give this one much credence--also see if there are any RV results.

Sorry to keep updating/editing--
but the Zogby poll seems to be for the same period, ending on September 2, and shows Bush with a two point lead among LVs, a three point difference since their mid-August poll.

[loathesomeshrub]

43. Unfortunately there is a link

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

Why does it say press release? And did they let the rupug party pick the people to be polled?
They had to have picked at least 52% repugs/ moron mix to come up with those figures.

[depakid]

44. Time = CNN = Lies

Don't listen to them- they're doing EXACTLY what we knew they would- using polls to try to influence public opinion, rather than guage it.

Remember, these people are ruthless and will do and say anything, no matter how outrageous.

[quaker bill]

45. Not surprising

We went soft on the repukes at our convention, they went hard on us at theirs. I hope they fire the lame brain that came up with that strategy.

That being said, I expect that this poll is an outlier and any post- convention blip will only survive a few weeks. Regardless, we need to kick it up another notch.

Another 4 years of this crap is unthinkable.

[democrat_patriot]

46. Could be 25. Don't care, we've got the momentum back in 1 day!!

*'s speech got bad reviews.

Kerry comes out swinging.

By Monday. 2 points.

By Wednesday -2.

[seabeyond]

51. yup

wink

[goclark]

47. CNN is telling a POLL FACE LIE!

There is no way that is possible!

The fix is in.

There is no way!

Media against us
Polls are against us
And
The
PEOPLE
Are
For Us, with all the compassion that was never observed in the last stolen election.

IMO, the Media knows that the RNConvention was a loser. They know that Bush is a loser but, they CAN NOT let him appear to be losing at this stage in the election.

With my tinfoil hat on top of my head,Bush has got to be ahead at this point because when they steal the votes they can say," but Bush was way ahead. What is your beef??"

They can not allow it to be close from here on out.

Is it just wishful thinking on my part? Please tell me that these polls are wrong.

[Frodo]

53. TIME is no RW rag.

They (and Newsweek) have actually been the best polling firm for Kerry that wasn't a "D" internal firm.

Let's hope it's an outlying data point and the "bounce" is more like 6-8%.

[fujiyama]

49. It would be dumb to start panicking already

Kerry got a big bounce in one of the polls. I think it was Newsweek. Then it was shown by some other to be a bit smaller.

This will be volatile for a while. We should wait for a few weeks to see the full effect.

[gasperc]

55. pollster is SRBI, links to Rove?? manufacturing momentum???

The Time's poll was done by SRBI?? links to Rove?? (none / 0)

I just copied this over from another post on DU
Principals of SRBI
Mark A. Schulman, Ph.D., President and Partner
Mark Schulman is a founder and President of Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. (SRBI). His work has spanned both market and public policy research for major corporations, banks and other financial institutions, insurance companies, the media, foundations, public transportation organizations and government. He is a frequent media commentator on polling and elections and has appeared on both CNN and Fox News.

http://www.srbi.com/who_we_are.html

Same tactics...this is another Rove move.

[sangh0]

56. THE SKY IS FALLING!!!

again

[Screaming Lord Byron]

58. Happens on a weekly basis.

[name not needed]

57. The poll is utter bullshit

No need to run in circles screaming just yet.

[devinsgram]

59. Cnn and Time, pleeeeeeaaaassssseeeee

[oasis]

60. Rove seeks to create an atmosphere of hopelessness so donations to

Kerry will dry up.

Edit to add: The right amount of GOP money can have a great influence on poll results.

[librechik]

61. Where is Bush's 20 point bounce??? He is so over if 11 is all he can do

[bobbyboucher]

62. These "poll" threads are always very telling,

not about voters across the country, but about voters right here on DU.

[lancdem]

63. My Repuke co-worker is gloating about it

:grr:

[LittleWoman]

65. Take these telephone polls with a large grain of salt.

I know a lot of younger (early and middle 20's) aged voters who do not have land phones but rather have cell phones as their only telephone service. Unless these polls include cell phones they are missing a good sized number of voters. Neither of our kids (ages 28 and 23) have a land phone and they and all of their friends are all Kerry voters and they will vote! Furthermore we all live in Ohio.
As I recall the polls in the Dewey-Truman race also had skewed samples which totally blew up in their faces on Election Day. The famous result was the newspaper headlines which gave the race to Dewey.

[Christof]

66. Awww geez.

How in the HELL did he get an 11-point lead???

[AgadorSparticus]

68. 11? are you sure it's not a 71 point lead?? i mean, the RNC went

SOOOOOooo well. what with ahhn-old reminding us how great nixon was and that crazy keyes reminding us that homosexuality is a hedonistic sin and all. and lets not forget the measly million or so demonstrators in the streets.....

[rocktivity]

69. These is the same pollsters

that needed a week to admit that Kerry got a convention bounce. Let's see how they compare to the other polls.

:headbang:
rocknation

[AgadorSparticus]

70. right. NO BIAS there!! *snarf*

:crazy::crazy::crazy:

[sangh0]

71. The guy who ran the poll used to work for FOX NEWS

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x738912

[AgadorSparticus]

75. imagine that!!!! how can ANYONE get all riled up knowing this?

what a bogus poll stunt by rove. hope to hell it backfires on his doughboy ass.

[Catt03]

72. Time is CNN as in Time/Warner/AOL

What do you expect?

[Kadie]

73. Wasn't it the Time/CNN poll that just a few weeks ago

was totally off from all the other polls?

I hope no one is judging things based on just one poll.