TIME Poll, Bush 52 Kerry 41 Nader 3. Hard Lesson: Negative Mesages Work

[WiseMen]

A decade of research in political campaigns has shown that
people remember negative messages much better than positive.

Mary Beth is learning that lesson a little late. Hopefully, not
too late.

This is nothing new or surprising. The post-convention results are
only confirming common wisdom of campaign practitioners
that NEGATIVE MESSAGES is the best way to change the
dynamic of the campaign. If Mary Beth is surprised by this, then
she is truly naive regarding the dynamics of public opinion.

I know Kerry has some POSITIVE ammo to unload. Lets hope someone
has some NEGATIVE bombs to drop. The undecided are undecided because
they don't pay much attention. The RNC got their attention. The
DNC did not.

Anyone have the scoop on Mary Beth's resume? She has been a
tough operator and runs a tight ship. Is there any reason to
believe she has any depth in political campaign theory
or a specific strategic visions regarding winning elections?

The only good way to look at some of the errors is as experimentation
with novel theory about campaigns and public opinion.

[Trajan]

1. Hopefully ....

And it's not like there is a lack of material to work with ...

REEMS and REEMS of stuff to whack poor Georgie and Dickie on da heads with ...

Harken, Enron, Arbusto, AWOL, Halliburton, LIES LIES LIES ...

Geeez: where does one start ? ...

[forgethell]

13. Problem is

that it's already been put out there and hasn't done much good. Or at least has done all the good it's going to. Watch the repukes try to mine Kerry's entire Senate career for a few things to hang him with.

Oh, well, at least the election will be exciting, I guess.

[gatorboy]

16. It only works if the media is willing to hold the hammer.

All of these are excellent choices but it is obvious that the media WILL NOT question him and here's why:
They are to the point that people now know they went along with a false war. So, they take the Bush route and just ignore it. If they go after Bush it admits guilt that they went along with a lie knowingly and they will not do that.

[Sensitivity]

56. 60 Min already admitted they were duped by Pentagon

[gatorboy]

57. Many more have admitted the didn't report as they should've

but like Bush, most feel no responsibility over it. They've just shrugged it off.

[Guaranteed]

2. God fucking DAMMIT.

Fucking incompetents running our campaign. I swear to God.

Where the fuck is Dean?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

7. Take a chill pill

There's always a bounce after a convention. We've got two months left plus Kerry's taking the gloves off.

[Guaranteed]

22. This didn't even factor in Bush's speech. nt

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

23. That speech was most uninspired

Sorry if you think otherwise

[Snivi Yllom]

8. Dean who?

Oh, you mean the Dean that everyone was excited about and had passion?

[AngryAmish]

33. Yeah, who was that guy?

What ever happened to him?

[molly]

3. Bullshit

there is no 11 point lead - just bullshit

[WiseMen]

36. Magin of Error means it could be just a 5 pont lead. Still big swing from

Kerry being up by 2-5 points.

[sub.theory]

47. I'll believe it only when others reproduce it

Until we get some independent pollings showing similar numbers, I'm not going to panic. This poll stinks, and I smell a rat. Other polls are still showing the race neck and neck, including the new Zogby. I completely agree with molly - this is bullshit!

[Snivi Yllom]

4. but but but we need to have a Positive message...

Kerry needs to fire the numb nuts running his campaign now.

[Walt Starr]

5. Link please

Need to see the particluars about this poll.

[MikeG]

6. The bounce will fade. Kerry ran no ads in August either.

[Old and In the Way]

9. Here's my theory.

Corporate media has a vested interest in seeing Bush elected. Why? Because they enabled this criminal administration to declare War on America. We saw they way they had Republican analysts covering our convention....and then covered their own convention. Hmmmmmmm.

They ought to be scared shitless if Kerry and a Democratic Congress gets elected.


So I'll take these "polls" with a grain of salt...

[MrBenchley]

10. Link to the poll, please....

and notice that the poll has a fixed number of respondents and is thus not much like an election....

The last number I see is "If the election were held today, 46 percent of those polled would vote for Bush, 44 percent would select Kerry and 5 percent would pick independent candidate Ralph Nader, Time said."

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aLs8YyHT05vw&refer=us

That's 5% undecided in a 2 point race...pretty damn good.

[quaoar]

14. That's not the same poll

That CNN was talking about. Unless CNN is completely fucked up, which is possible.

[Walt Starr]

18. So WTF is the real numbers?

Sounds like CNN was quoting some online poll that had been freeped.

[gasperc]

21. link, by the by toooo many posts on this poll

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/printout/0,8816,692562,00.html

[sangh0]

11. Wrong-Negative ads work ONLY IF your goal is to depress turnout.

Though negative messages are more memorable, that is not the same as saying "they work". Ask Gephardt and Dean, who destroyed each other's chances in Iowa by using negative ads against each other, if negative ads work.

Negative ads work ONLY IF your goal is to depress turnout.

[forgethell]

17. If they depress our turnout

then don't they win??

[sangh0]

25. Negative ads depress turnout on BOTH sides

.

[goclark]

27. Gep and Dean are both good people

The media was not in the back pocket of either one of them.

This is different IMO. Here we have a race between Good and EVIL and the Media, the power and the money are on the side of the Evil.

Where does that leave us?

[WiseMen]

30. Could you cite ANY research on this. Research is that Negative Messages

are more effective in changing opinion than POSITIVE.

ALL POSITIVE IS GREAT -- But doesn't work if opposition is throwing
NEGATIVE messages about you.

[sangh0]

40. "Research is that Negative Messages are more effective in changing opinion

That's not the same as saying "Negative ads work"

Yes, opinions change. People who don't like negative ads vote against the person making the negative ads.

And if you think some research would be appropriate here, I suggest you follow your own advice.

[jackstraw45]

12. Look for worse numbers before better...

This was taken Tuesday-Thursday - pre-Bush speech.

We have a LOT of work to do.

[WiseMen]

34. I agree. This can be turned around. But it was avoidable.

[Gloria]

15. Heard some analyst a couple of weeks ago saying that if Bush can't

get over 55% he will be in big trouble...

Pray he doesn't go over 55%!!!

[Pirate Smile]

24. I think that was about an approval rating over 55%. Have they released

any approval/disapproval numbers or right track/wrong track?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. and you believe this shit?

Zogby is a more believable source and he shoes a SLIGHT shift.
Kerry is the man. Kerry will win.

[gasperc]

20. one poll, besides looks like the hurricane, Russian school massacre

these will take the edge off, and Kerry has been campaigning all week, it's been GOP all week

and this poll was finished before Zell's hatefest

[lancdem]

29. Zell's hatefest worked

[59millionmorons]

32. Poll didnt include his speech

Check the date of the poll.

[lancdem]

37. Yes, it did

It was done through Sept. 2.

[sangh0]

42. Incredibly illogical

Bush*'s speech ended close to the end of Sept 2, so any poll could NOT, by definition, include reaction to Bush*'s speech.

Nice try

[Sensitivity]

53. At least we know that the hatefest worked against DEAN in IOWA

[GOPAgainstGW]

26. BULL SHEIT!! - POLLS ARE WORTHLESS & READ THIS

These polls are total bull shit!! Too many "closet Republicans" voting against Bush that don't poll, just like when Clinton beat Papa Bush in 92. Same thing will happen in 04. - NKR

Also read this:

Email Rec’d – 09.03.04

---from my D.C. Republican colleague.

With the news of Clinton's health situation today it reminded me of these facts, I will share.

You know despite Clinton's problems in Office he never had approval ratings as low as "King Faud Bush". Even at the height of the Monica problems his approval ratings were still in 60’s. For example on Feb 1, 1998, Clinton hit a 69% percent approval rating. That rating was better than Ronald Reagan's highest approval rating!

Upon leaving office, Clinton had one of the highest approval ratings for a retiring President in U.S. history. King Bush’s approval rating is in the 40’s, and this little blip up in the low 50’s will go back down after the RNC hate feast in NYC is a sad memory for the GOP.

The GOP fear game is not going to work. People still vote from their pocketbook, and Bush-Cheney will lose.

Look at the great Winston Churchill, he saved England and help us beat the Nazi's in World War II, then right after the end of WWII in July 1945, he is voted out of office as England's Prime Minister because of continued economic and infrastructure problems on his home-front.

Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair is getting ready to learn the same lesson when he gets voted out of office. When that happens, and it will according to the British press, there goes our only large ally in the Iraq/Middle East fiasco.

Let us also remember that King Bush must overcome 48 years of history to win re-election over Democrat John Kerry. Since 1956, none of the three presidents who trailed in a Gallup Poll after February of a re-election year won a second term. – JAL.

-------------------------------------------------
Beltway Republicans Against Bush-Cheney ’04, Inc.
------------------------------------------------

[WiseMen]

28. Funny, how polls are good when they favor us. Bad when favor Bush.

[sangh0]

50. Funny how you believe the bad ones

but we never hear you when the good ones come out.

BTW, the person who ran this poll used to work for Fox News. Not that that should concern YOU.

[crossroads]

31. Nobody Called me Yet!!!

Anybody call any of you??? A poll is just a poll!!! We have to work hard people... the religious right has these people believing they will go to hell if they don't vote for a 'born again' Christian!!! These people are like sheep... they don't think for themselves!!!
:eyes:

[gulfcoastliberal]

35. Mary Beth Cahill on Woodruff re: Time poll - my transcript

Talking about this... said a bounce is a bounce... said we'll see what the other new polls show...

Woodruff asked about the hammering Kerry gave Bush* last night, Cahill takes high road saying he wants to talk about future, economy, etc.

Woodruff gleefully plays up jobs numbers, saying the Bush* tax cuts are to thank. Cahill points out still net negative job movement for *.

Woodruff on "flip flopping"...setting in w/ voters?
Cahill: Campaign tactic used by * to deflect attention from his record. Ridicule is something they do b/c they can't talk positively about an agenda.
Woodruff presses on "habit of indecision" and says if Time poll holds up, their negative shit is working and convincing voters.
Cahill: Well there are 2 other polls with a 2% margin, they are not loking to the future, etc.

Woodruff: are you still going to keep your job?
Cahill: I'm not planning on going anywhere.

So what is up with Cahill?

She sounded less than convincing when Woodruff pressed her.


-- I really question the startegy of not talking about Bush's missing year, his alleged cocaine use, the lies about Iraq, Halliburton, etc. Why are the surrogates not going nuclear on Bush?

Tired slogans about hope and better times aren't nearly as attention getting as those fucking SBV ads. I saw 3 or 4 on CNN yesterday alone. Absolutely awful.

[WiseMen]

39. Cahill should stop complaining that Rove won't fight on her turf. That's

NOT HIS JOB.

Dems have to understand that the incumbent usually shapes the
debate. And the battle ground is "fitness to lead in a time of war."

At this stage in the campaign ISSUES are IRRELEVANT!

[Cush]

38. seems there are problems

CNN cut into the end of INSIDE POLITICS and you could hear Judy saying there was problem with the Time poll, plus another new poll has Bush & Kerry even

[Walt Starr]

41. BINGO!

It's a FAKE POLL and CNN KNOWS IT!!!

[WiseMen]

44. She was simply passing on Mary Beth's talking point. I was not

impressed by the tactic Mary Beth is using. She should just
take the poll numbers hit and do the right pitch for her candidate.

What's the point about disputing a poll.

[sangh0]

51. Do you have any evidence to support that?

Or did you just make it up?

[Clinton Crusader]

43. Zogby

8/30-9/2 ---------- 7/27-29

Bush-Cheney 46 43

Kerry-Edwards 44 48

Undecided 9 8


:kick:

[AngryAmish]

45. Michael Moore had the summer's most succesful movie

Why is he being shunned by the campaign?

[AgadorSparticus]

46. BULLSHIT. when bush engages in negatives, he comes up smelling

like roses with the "media". when kerry does it, it is "immoral, offensive, etc" our true enemy is not bush. it is the media whores.

[Thrill]

48. I have been saying it since the begining of the DNC

Being nice doesn't win shit in politics. It was downright Stupid to play nice at the DNC. Too bad these morons had to learn the hard way. The same damn thing Dems always try to do. And Repukes show them negative Works. FOOLS

[AgadorSparticus]

54. i'm ready for the moveon ads to come on the scene.

yea, i'm tired of the nicey nice too. it's time for the mud to come out. bush has had it WAY too easy from kerry...

[Tim_in_HK]

49. Hmm, so we have

Time with this number, up to Sep 2

Zogby with Bush 46%, Kerry 44% (up to Sep 2)
ARG with Bush 47%, Kerry 46% (up to Sep 1)

And all of these are 'likely voters,' which are not very good indicators this far out from the election anyway.

While slightly demoralizing, at this point I'm a bit suspect . . .

[Sensitivity]

52. Have to see next week what is up.

[many a good man]

55. 11 point lead BEFORE his convention speech???

So that's the benchmark we'll use to judge reaction to his pathetic acceptance speech. When the next poll comes out with a more realistic 46% we'll say the speech cost him five points.

The media has to make it a horse race to prop up viewship to boost profit$. They know Bush* is going to need a big bump right now to brace himeself for the hurricane caused by Kitty Kelly's new book coming out in three weeks.

[Democat]

58. Some DUers need to face reality

Kerry has made some major mistakes and he's let the Republicans set the rules for him, which they don't follow themselves. And in doing so, they are kicking our asses all over the place.

How many times did we have to read about the imaginary "backlash" that Bush is going to to face after the convention or the fact that all polls showing Bush ahead are frauds?

We also have to hear about how Kerry isn't really making any mistakes - he's running a brilliant campaign, anyone who disagrees just doesn't understand the strategy (how many campaigns have you won, they ask.) It reminds me of 2002 and the "Secret Democratic Plan" that some here swore was going to save us all.

Kerry can still win, but he is down and he's made major mistakes.

Burying your head in the sand will not help.